It’s a tale as old as time: The early bird gets the worm. Last week, we recommended the Aaron Judge Home Run Leader prop for your MLB picks, when Judge was priced at +400 at Caesars Sportsbook; that was already down from +500 during the offseason, but his odds have shortened even further to +350 as we go to press.
Fortunately, you can still get Dylan Cease at +1000 to lead the majors in strikeouts, and Esteury Ruiz at +800 to do the same for stolen bases. But what other tasty player futures are there waiting for us on the MLB odds board?
That’s what we’re here to find out. This time, we’re switching to the ZiPS (Update) projections at FanGraphs to better identify the biggest bargains for your player futures picks; let’s start with the pitchers, and the trickiest of all their categories to nail down.
Picks Summary
- Shohei Ohtani Regular Season Wins Leader (+5000)
- Yordan Alvarez Regular Season RBI Leader (+1000)
- Bo Bichette Regular Season Hits Leader (+900)
How Many Games Will Shohei Ohtani Win?
Projecting pitcher wins is already more difficult now than ever before, thanks to the early hook all the teams are using; even getting in the required five innings to earn a victory has become endangered.
Now try to do it for Shohei Ohtani (3-0 in five starts). As a two-way player, Ohtani is more likely than others to suffer an injury, since he’s playing so often, and Ohtani is also more likely to be kept off the mound in situations where the Los Angeles Angels feel the need to protect his availability as a hitter.
Degree of difficulty aside, FanGraphs projects Ohtani to finish the regular season at 15-6, two fewer wins than Gerrit Cole (4-0 in five starts) of the New York Yankees and Julio Urias (3-2 in five starts) of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But Ohtani is priced as a distant +5000 outsider at BetMGM, making him an easy choice over the favored Cole at +1200.
What About Urias?
For some reason, Urias isn’t on the list for these MLB player futures as we go to press, but we suspect he’ll have longer odds than Cole once this gets sorted out, so keep Urias in mind if you’re skeptical of Ohtani’s ability to put in the required volume to win this bet.
MLB Pick: Shohei Ohtani Regular Season Wins Leader (+5000) at BetMGM
How Many RBIs Will Yordan Alvarez Get?
Here’s a much easier category to handle, if only because the final amount will be north of 100 instead of the high teens. It’s a can of corn as far as ZiPS (Update) is concerned: Houston Astros DH/OF Yordan Alvarez (27 RBIs in 20 games) is projected for 137 RBIs, well ahead of New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso (23 RBIs in 23 games) at 123.
Despite those projections, Alvarez is third on the odds list for this wager at +1000, behind Judge (+700) and Alonso (+800). Apparently, playing for the defending World Series champions isn’t enough to get the larger betting public to pay attention to anything happening outside of New York.
Also, in case you were wondering, Judge is projected to finish the regular season with 112 RBIs, having already plated just 11 runs in 22 games thus far. But at least he still leads the home run projections 46-45 over Alonso.
MLB Pick: Yordan Alvarez Regular Season RBI Leader (+1000) at BetMGM
How Many Hits Will Bo Bichette Get?
Here’s another easy choice for our baseball picks, at least going by the ZiPS (Update) projections, which have Philadelphia Phillies SS Trea Turner and Toronto Blue Jays SS Bo Bichette tied at 185 hits apiece. Look at their respective odds at BetRivers, though:
- Turner: +550
- Bichette: +900
Again, the player from Toronto isn’t getting nearly the same respect from the betting market as the player from Philadelphia. Bichette is already up 31-29 in this race as we go to press despite playing one fewer game than Turner – though to be fair, it’s Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1600) leading the way with 34 hits for Atlanta.
Another Fun Bet for You
We’re expecting that hit parade to slow down soon enough. Acuna is projected to finish with 160 hits, too far behind the leaders for us to recommend betting at +1600.
If you’re looking for a deeper value pick, consider Luis Arraez at +1500; the Miami Marlins 2B is third in the ZiPS (Update) projections at 179 hits and is already off to a hot start with 32 hits in his first 20 games. Bet accordingly.
MLB Pick: Bo Bichette Regular Season Hits Leader (+900) at BetRivers
