Picks Summary
- Suns vs. Clippers: Deandre Ayton Over 1.5 Turnovers (+165) at Bet365
- Suns vs. Clippers: Kevin Durant Over 1.5 Blocks (+185) at Bet365
- 76ers vs. Nets: Cameron Johnson Under 0.5 Steals (+200) at Bet365
If you don’t have your health, you don’t have anything. The Los Angeles Clippers thought they struck it rich back in 2019 when they signed Kawhi Leonard and traded their entire future to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Paul George. Instead, here they are down 2-1 to the Phoenix Suns heading into Game 4 of their first-round series, with Leonard and George both sitting out because of knee injuries.
At least we think Leonard is out. He reportedly got hurt in Game 1 but played through it, finishing with 38 points in a 115-110 win over Phoenix as 7.5-point road dogs. Leonard scored another 31 points in Game 2, then was ruled out for Game 3 this past Wednesday – both losses for the Clippers. His status for Saturday’s Game 4 remains a mystery at press time.
Let’s take advantage. The Suns are the featured team in our player props for Saturday’s NBA picks, although perhaps not in the way Deandre Ayton would prefer.
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Saturday, April 22, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Crypto.com Arena
It’s not easy being Ayton. He was developing into a top-shelf center for Phoenix until this year, just after singing that four-year, $133-million offer sheet from the Indiana Pacers – which the Suns matched. Ayton (plus-0.4 EPM at Dunks and Threes) is still better than your average NBA player, but you’d expect more from the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 Draft.
We’re expecting more than 1.5 turnovers from Ayton this Saturday. So is FantasyData; they project Ayton for 1.73 turnovers in this matchup, and the Over is priced at +165 on the early overseas NBA odds board. It’s a no-brainer.
To be fair, Ayton’s fingers aren’t all that buttery. His 11.0% turnover rate leaves Ayton in the 62nd percentile at Dunks and Threes, with 100 being perfect and zero abysmally gaffe-prone. But at 1.8 turnovers per game against a desperate Clippers squad, we’re definitely recommending the Over for a chunky bet at these odds, maybe even 3-4 units.
NBA Prop Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 1.5 Turnovers (+165) at Bet365
Is Kevin Durant the Real MVP?
Not quite – but he’s still amazing. Durant posted a plus-7.1 BPM at Basketball Reference this year, and plus-7.9 BPM after that gigantic trade with the Brooklyn Nets. More on them in a moment.
He might not be peak Durant from 10 years ago, but he remains one of the very best players in the league at age 34, and he can still get it done on defense, too. Durant has been good for 2.0 blocks per game this year, which is all we need from him this Saturday to cash in at +185.
Once again, this is where the Clippers and their desperation will come in handy – especially if Leonard isn’t able to play, which seems likely with Los Angeles opening as 6-point home dogs for Game 4.
The Clippers had some success using an ultra-small lineup in the second half of Game 3, and somehow managed to avoid any swattage at all from the 6-foot-10 Durant; we’re betting he and the Suns will adjust as required and cash in this prop at a bargain price.
NBA Prop Pick: Kevin Durant Over 1.5 Blocks (+185) at Bet365
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Saturday, April 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Barclays Center
The Sixers have both literally and figuratively kicked Brooklyn in the lower parts of town, taking a 3-0 advantage into Game 4 and laughing all the way. But there doesn’t seem to be enough value putting any Philly players in our NBA player props, at least not this Saturday; instead, we’re taking Cam Johnson of the Nets to post exactly zero steals, for a healthy +200 payout.
This is the riskiest of our three picks, as you might expect given that it also has the longest odds. Johnson is a quality young two-way player with 1.2 steals per game on the season, and 1.4 per game since joining Brooklyn in the Durant trade. He’s also projected for 0.9 steals this Saturday at FantasyData.
That’s still more than low enough to bet the Under at +190. All three of these basketball props have juicy value attached, in that 3-4 unit range; if we had to rank them, we’d put the Johnson prop ahead of the Durant prop, but not quite as good as Ayton going Over 1.5 turnovers. How big to make one unit of your bankroll is up to you, so bet accordingly.
NBA Prop Pick: Cameron Johnson Under 0.5 Steals (+200) at Bet365
