The computers have come up with three more Overs for your college basketball picks this Thursday – all three from the Left Coast.
There are so many men’s basketball teams in Division I, you need a computer to keep track. The free OddsTrader BetStation app has cranked out projections for every game on Thursday’s slate, and once again, it likes the Over more than anything else.
Maybe there’s something in those Pacific waters. The games with the biggest gap between the projections and the college basketball odds are all on the West Coast, so it’ll be a late night for you if you’re east of the Mississippi. Friday’s basically the weekend anyway, right?
- Stanford vs. UCLA: Over 130.5 (-110) at SugarHouse
- Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego: Over 138 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Weber State vs. Sacramento State: Over 126 (-110) at FanDuel
Thursday, February 16, 2023 – 11:00 PM EST at Pauley Pavilion
No better place to start than Pauley Pavilion, where the No. 4 Bruins (Under 14-11) are pegged to beat Stanford (Over 13-12) 79-64. That’s 143 points, or 12.5 points higher than what SugarHouse have on their NCAAB odds board at press time.
Will UCLA’s Defense Spoil Our Bet?
Maybe. The Bruins rank second in defensive efficiency on Ken Pomeroy’s charts, and just No. 24 on offense; they also take it fairly slowly at 66.0 possessions per game, which ranks No. 257 according to Adjusted Tempo.
The Cardinal are even slower at 65.5 possessions (No. 280), but they don’t have anywhere near the same defensive chops as UCLA. Stanford ranks No. 155 on defense and No. 64 on offense, and they’re especially bad on the perimeter, allowing 7.9 threes per game (No. 265).
This doesn’t line up ideally with UCLA’s strong interior game. The Bruins only attempt 17.5 threes per game (No. 334), but they do connect at a 36.2% clip (No. 75); meanwhile, UCLA also has some defensive weaknesses behind the arc that Stanford can exploit.
That’s what happened on December 1 when the Bruins beat the Cardinal 80-66 (Over 136.5). UCLA shot 6-for-14 from long range, and Stanford went 9-for-27 to provide ample points for Over bettors. More of the same, please.
NCAAB Pick: Over 130.5 (-110) at SugarHouse
Thursday, February 16, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Jenny Craig Pavilion
Moving from the Pac-12 to the WCC, we have another ranked team in the No. 16 Gaels (13-13 Totals), who should have no trouble pounding San Diego (Over 19-6). The AI likes Saint Mary’s to win 82-69, despite that 138-point total at Caesars Sportsbook.
Is Saint Mary’s Too Slow for the Over?
They are pretty darned slow. Pomeroy has the Gaels at No. 359 out of the 363 Division I teams in tempo at a mere 61.9 possessions per game. Saint Mary’s also boasts the sixth-ranked defense in the nation, compared to No. 34 on offense.
That’s where the Toreros come in. They’re faster than your average D-I team at 69.1 possessions per game (No. 101), and their No. 345-ranked defense is worlds away from their No. 57 offense. No wonder they have the Over at 19-6 thus far.
The Over was the right call on December 1st, when Saint Mary’s destroyed San Diego 85-58 (Over 132.5). The sportsbooks have adjusted their NCAAB lines to some extent, but the AI still has the Gaels hitting the 80-point mark in this matchup, which they’ve done in seven of their last nine games.
NCAAB Pick: Over 138 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Thursday, February 16, 2023 – 10:00 PM EST at The Nest
It’s another step down in profile from the WCC to the Big Sky Conference, but this is easily the most competitive matchup of our trio, with the computers projecting the Hornets to win 70-67. That’s 11 points more than what FanDuel has on Thursday’s college basketball lines.
Who Are These Guys?
Weber State (Over 13-11) has built plenty of street cred since their inaugural 1962 campaign, although they’re starting fresh this year under rookie head coach Eric Duft. They rank No. 216 overall (No. 278 offense, No. 141 defense) on the Pomeroy charts, with the No. 274-ranked tempo at 65.6 possessions per game.
Sacramento State (12-12 Totals) has only been around since 1991, and they’ve yet to make a March Madness appearance.
Otherwise, the Hornets have much the same profile as the Wildcats; they also have a first-year head coach in David Patrick, and they rank No. 235 overall (No. 192 offense, No. 280 defense), all while getting in just 62.0 possessions per game (No. 358).
The good news: This very close contest has Sacto favored by just a single point as we go to press. That gives us about as good a shot at overtime as we could hope for. Bet accordingly – the AI has spoken.
NCAAB Pick: Over 126 (-110) at FanDuel