Will artificial intelligence destroy us all? Will it take our jobs? Maybe somewhere down the road, but as they say, AI doesn’t terminate people – people terminate people.
While we wait for The Terminator to rise, let’s see what the free OddsTrader BetStation app recommends for Thursday’s NCAAB computer picks. As usual, the Over seems to be the preferred choice, with some very large profit margins waiting for us if the computers are right.
UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon State Beavers
Thursday, February 09, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Gill Coliseum
Let’s start with this Pac-12 matchup between the No. 7 Bruins (Under 12-11) and the unranked Beavers (Under 16-7). There’s a 125-point total on the odds boards, but the AI says UCLA will win this game 74-59, which adds up to 133 on our trusty betting abacus.
Are Both These Teams Too Slow?
They’re definitely slow. Of the 363 Division I teams on Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball efficiency charts, UCLA ranks No. 253 in Adjusted Tempo, getting in about 65.8 possessions per game. Oregon State is even slower at 63.4 possessions (No. 338).
Both these teams also happen to be much better at defense than offense – with the Bruins considerably better at both ends than the Beavers. But as they say, styles make fights, and the Beavers’ relative strength on offense is perimeter shooting, while UCLA’s defense is much better in the paint than beyond the arc.
Plus, you’ve got this tiny, tiny total of 125 points. Oregon State may have the Under at 16-7 this year, but they have faced only one total this low all season. Granted, they went Under 124 when they beat California 68-48 back on January 24, but still.
The mighty Bruins definitely haven’t seen totals this small. The closest they got was in last Saturday’s game against Washington State, and they skimmed Over 127.5 in a 76-52 romp over the Cougars – another molasses-bound team from the Pacific Northwest. Must be something in the artisanal coffee.
NCAAB Pick: Over 125 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
UAB Blazers vs. North Texas Mean Green
Thursday, February 09, 2023 – 08:00 PM EST at UNT Coliseum
The computers like that first Over a lot, but this Conference USA tilt has even more legs, with North Texas (Under 12-10) projected to beat the Blazers (Over 16-7) 70-68 despite that 128.5-point total at FanDuel.
Can the Mean Green Keep Up?
We’re stuck with another slowpoke in this contest: North Texas ranks No. 363 in Adjusted Tempo at a soul-sucking 58.6 possessions per game. But this time, they’ll be matched up with a swift UAB team that fits in 71.2 possessions (No. 24). Split that down the middle, and you get a more typical 65 possessions or so for a college basketball game.
There may be more where that came from. The AI projects the Mean Green to win by two points, so overtime looms large over this game. And while North Texas is great at limiting possessions, they’re not so great at preventing teams from getting to the free-throw line (19.5 attempts per game, No. 274).
This is where UAB are vikings. This tall, tall team ranks fifth in the nation with 24.7 free throw attempts per game, and third overall with 18.3 makes. The clock doesn’t run when they’re at the line, either. Let the parade begin.
NCAAB Pick: Over 128.5 (-115) at FanDuel
Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. Loyola Marymount Lions
Thursday, February 09, 2023 – 10:00 PM EST at Gersten Pavilion
Okay, those are some big Over projections the computer has handed us – but they pale in comparison to this WCC battle between No. 15 St. Mary’s (Under 13-11) and Loyola-Marymount (Over 14-9-1). The Gaels are pegged to win 74-68, which is miles ahead of that 129.5-point total at FanDuel.
Are the Computers Wrong?
This is definitely on the outside margins of the range of projections out there on the Web. But you can see the logic – even with St. Mary’s ranking fourth in defensive efficiency on the Pomeroy charts, and No. 357 in tempo (61.8 possessions per game).
That’s because they’re playing the Lions. They’re not UAB or anything, but they do play better offense (No. 95) than defense (No. 117), and they do operate at a swifter pace (67.3 possessions, No. 169) than the Gaels.
More importantly, Loyola-Marymount is skilled at 3-point shooting, and while Saint Mary’s limit opponents to 16.2 trey attempts per game (No. 7), they’re not quite as good at preventing those shots from going in (30.9%, No. 49). Bet accordingly – the AI has spoken.
NCAAB Pick: Over 129.5 (-106) at FanDuel
