The UFC travels to the Middle East this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a fight card stacked with UAE favorites as Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Arena will undoubtedly have its roof blown off.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 294 preliminary card.
Picks Summary
- Elliott/Mokaev Over 2.5 Rounds (-175)
- Dumas-Azaitar Under 2.5 Rounds (-165)
*Odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Tim Elliott vs. Muhammad Mokaev
UFC 294 Flyweight Prelim Bout
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 01:15 PM EDT at the Etihad Arena
It’s been a storybook beginning for Muhammad Mokaev (9-0 pro-MMA) since joining the UFC in 2022. He’s already collected four consecutive wins and is a self-proclaimed future champion with a level of confidence you must respect.
The time for games is now over. Tim Elliott (19-12-0) is a veteran of the flyweight division, and he’ll take no prisoners versus his 23-year-old opponent this weekend. Elliott, 36, is no spring chicken, but he’ll own such a large experience advantage on Saturday that you can’t help but believe he’ll possess a high faith in his chance of victory.
Elliott vs. Mokaev: Fight Tape Analysis
Wrestle, wrestle, wrestler. Mokaev is a wrestling champion, and he’s made excellent use of his skillset in the octagon. However, the level of competition he’s fought thus far has been lackluster, to say the least.
Elliott’s been a noteworthy wrestler throughout his decade-plus tenure in the UFC. The difference is that he’s fought talents such as Demetrious Johnson and Deiveson Figueiredo.
In a striking exchange, I genuinely favor the underdog in Elliott. However, cardio and wrestling will likely go to Mokaev. However, Mokaev’s previous submission attempts will struggle to hinder the veteran, who’s displayed excellent defenses on the ground outside of a championship caliber of opponents.
UFC 294 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Mokaev a significant betting favorite. Still, I believe it’s only a matter of time before he’s exposed for his lack of MMA experience.
Will it be this weekend? I’m unsure, but I expect a back-and-forth contest where the winner must be decided on the scorecards.
Elliott has gone the distance in five consecutive bouts, and his experience will prevent Mokaev from having his way in the jiu-jitsu realm. Neither fighter has presented a KO/TKO threat, and with a bout I expect to be closely contested, backing the over 2.5 rounds makes the most sense from a betting perspective.
UFC Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-165) [1.40u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Sedriques Dumas vs. Abu Azaitar
UFC 294 Middleweight Prelim Bout
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 11:50 AM EDT at the Etihad Arena
Sedriques Dumas (8-1-0 pro-MMA) was overly hyped upon his UFC debut earlier this year, and Josh Fremd undoubtedly exposed the weaknesses in his game. However, the up-and-comer shouldn’t ignore power, size, youth, and a noteworthy finishing ability.
Aged 37, how much faith can we put in Abu Azaitar (14-3-0 pro-MMA), whose in-octagon activity has, or lack thereof, hasn’t seen him compete in almost three years?
Furthermore, he’s suffered multiple injuries and is known to compete in MMA for fun, as he’s already a successful businessman outside the octagon. Overall, there isn’t a whole lot going his way.
Dumas vs. Azaitar: Fight Tape Analysis
There’s no doubt that Dumas can pull this one off, especially considering the negative variables surrounding Azaitar. It’s clear that a wrestling game plan would favor the underdog, but the hunger to finish a fight we’ve seen during Dumas’ come-up is difficult to ignore.
In addition, I’m not sure Azaitar has the gas tank to wrestle for three rounds, and the BJJ threat from Dumas is present. With that said, finding confidence on either side is a struggle, and I certainly don’t support the current moneyline odds.
UFC 294 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The current UFC odds make Dumas the betting favorite, and I’m in agreement. However, a -200 price tag doesn’t sit right with me.
Azaitar has gone the distance in just 3 of his 18 pro-MMA bouts, and Dumas has seen the judge’s scorecards on just one occasion. We have two proven finishers and an under 2.5 line that meets a respectable price of -165 while aligning with the potential of a finish.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-165) [1.65u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
