The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden this Saturday, and we’ll witness an absolute banger of a main event when Jiri Prochazka meets Alex Pereira for the light heavyweight strap.
Not forgetting the co-main event, where heavyweight brutes Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich trade leather for the interim heavyweight gold in the absence of Jon Jones.
There’s no more time to waste, and the fight odds are available for us to dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for this weekend’s UFC 295 main and co-main event.
Picks Summary
- Prochazka-Pereira Over 1.5 Rounds (-155) at Bet365
- Tom Aspinall ML (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
UFC 259 Light Heavyweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 11:15 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Where do we start with Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1 pro-MMA)? He is riding a 13-fight win streak and became the UFC light heavyweight champion in just his third fight for the promotion.
Sitting as the #1 ranked 205lb fighter in the world, he relinquished the title due to injury, but for his long-awaited return, he’s right back into the title picture. He will hope to extend his legacy after becoming the first Czech Republic native to capture UFC gold, but it won’t be an easy task.
Alex “Poatan” Pereira (8-2-0), a decorated kickboxer who was recently inducted into the Glory Kickboxing Hall of Fame, transitioned to MMA and sent shockwaves through the UFC middleweight division.
After storming through the division with three consecutive wins and two knockouts, one year and four months following said debut, he became the first man to dethrone Israel Adesanya in the 185lb weight class.
Do we need to say anything else?
Prochazka vs. Pereira: Fight Tape Analysis
Pereira is all about precision, power, and technical masterclasses. His experience as an elite kickboxer has shone brightly in the UFC octagon, with his most dangerous weapons being the check left hook and blistering low kicks.
In contrast, it’s hard to pinpoint where Prochazka truly shines. He’s so unpredictable and difficult to understand that he could be compared to a fictional martial artist taken straight from a Bruce Lee flick.
That said, the finishing ability of Prochazka cannot be ignored. In 33 professional MMA bouts, he’s collected 25 knockouts, but then, in true Prochazka fashion, he caused many scratching heads when submitting the ground specialist Glover Teixeira.
A wide-open chin for the taking could, however, be his downfall. Pereira will fire back with bad intentions when pressured, but he won’t be baited into a hectic, un-technical scrap that Prochazka has heavily relied on.
UFC 295 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has placed Pereira as the slight betting favorite, but this contest should be cautiously approached from a moneyline betting perspective.
With clear paths to victory for both fighters, I noticed value in the over 1.5 rounds. Speaking that prediction out loud seems crazy, right? We have two proven finishers who can end a fight in seconds. However, Prochazka has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his 3 UFC bouts, and all but one of Pereira’s UFC contests went to the second round or beyond.
UFC Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds (-155) [1u returns 1.55u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Tom Aspinall vs. Sergei Pavlovich
UFC Light Heavyweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 10:50 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Little introduction is needed for Russia’s most dangerous heavyweight since Fedor Emelianenko, and although Sergei Pavlovich (18-1-0) is far from accomplishing the heights of his fellow countryman, 18 wins from 19 pro-MMA bouts with 15 knockouts has shaken the UFC heavyweight landscape.
Alongside Pavlovich in the new era of dominant heavyweight competitors is Tom Aspinall (13-3-0). The British fan favorite’s only loss in the UFC came via injury, while the other six fights ended inside the distance in his favor.
Pavlovich vs. Aspinall: Fight Tape Analysis
Pavlovich is a certified killer in the octagon, and he’s notably made quick work of Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa, and Curtis Blaydes consecutively, all of which ended in round one. He finds unconventional angles in his attacks through an unorthodox striking approach, and as for his power, the knockout record speaks for itself.
Aspinall will own speed and movement advantages in this contest as he’s undoubtedly the more agile of the two. Oppositely, he’ll be the smaller fighter, and power will likely side with his opponent. With a grappling-based game plan, I believe he can drag Pavlovich out of round one and drain the tank, something the Russian hasn’t been accustomed to during his pro career.
UFC 295 Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The current UFC odds have placed Pavlovich as the favorite, but the betting public has quickly adjusted the line in favor of Aspinall.
I can’t say that I’m surprised, as we don’t know how Pavlovich can handle the pace beyond five minutes, specifically when opposed to a martial artist with noteworthy wrestling tactics in his back pocket.
So long as Aspinall doesn’t throw his chin in the air too often and can avoid a round one onslaught, I believe it’s his fight to win, especially if he can take this bout into the deep waters of rounds three, four, or five.
UFC Pick: Aspinall Moneyline (-115) [1.15u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
