The UFC is back in New York, New York, this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for an epic night of fights stacked with top-level talent.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 295 preliminary.
Picks Summary
- Steve Erceg ML (-195) at Unibet
- Joshua Van ML (-220) at Caesars Sportsbook
Alessandro Costa vs. Stephen Erceg
UFC 295 Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 09:10 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Soon after dominating the Flyweight division of Eternal MMA, Steve Erceg (10-1) unexpectedly volunteered to face David Dvorak in his UFC debut. “Astro Boy” overcame adversity to seize control gradually, earning “Performance of the Night” and his ninth consecutive triumph.
Six of his seven career finishes were achieved through submissions.
Five months after securing a decision on Contender Series, Alessandro Costa (13-3) responded to the short notice summons to face Amir Albazi in an admirably audacious move. After failing to receive a contract on DWCS, it was a move he couldn’t refuse.
Despite this, Costa was defeated in the third round. Six months later, he rebounded with Jimmy Flick’s “Performance of the Night” submission, which earned him his eighth victory in nine bouts.
With roughly two weeks’ notice, he replaces Matt Schnell, whom Erceg replaced against Dvorak last June.
Erceg vs. Costa: Fight Tape Analysis
Achieving a victory against an opponent of Erceg’s caliber and versatility is difficult enough, but doing so with less than a month to prepare will be challenging. It’s a visceral sense, but I have confidence that Costa is capable of showing the heart to take this fight all three rounds.
While Costa’s low kicks and jabs, which caused Erceg considerable difficulty before “Astro Boy’s” clutch takedown, are not nearly as daring as Dvorak’s, they strike a bit harder. However, I don’t believe in Costa’s takedown defense to protect “Nono” from Erceg’s vicious ground game.
The primary concern in this situation is Costa’s durability, which he exhibited catastrophically against Albazi, another well-rounded contender. Although Erceg is not a one-time performer, he does possess some deceptive sparkle in his grasp.
UFC 295 Prelim Event Odds & Prediction
Costa possesses a limited offensive arsenal. Although Erceg excels at dismantling his opponents, I am confident that his physical stature and versatile skillset will be more than sufficient to safeguard him from any potential threats.
The betting odds offered at leading sportsbooks do not currently represent the most favorable value. However, it is worth noting that this is a customized number for bettors who have faith in it, albeit at costs that are usually not feasible for a direct wager.
UFC Pick: Erceg ML (-195) [1.95u returns 1u profit] at Unibet
Kevin Borjas vs. Joshua Van
UFC 295 Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 06:35 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
In the culmination of his two-year tenure with Fury FC, Flyweight champion Joshua Van (8-1) choked out Cleveland McLean. Van out-slugged Zhalgas Zhumagulov in his professional debut, earning him a spot in the Contender Series and a last-minute shot in the UFC.
“The Fearless” has seven professional victories, five of which were won via knockout.
Kevin Borjas (9-1) won the Inka FC Flyweight Championship with a stoppage of Tiao Calixto in his seventh battle for the promotion. “El Gallo Negro” was supposed to fight Van on Contender Series, but he instead knocked out the replacement fighter, Victor Dias, and won a unanimous decision to earn a contract.
Van vs. Borjas: Fight Tape Analysis
Van has the upper hand in adaptability and technique, while Borjas has the more potent hands, but they complement each other well since they are both deadly, aggressive attackers. All indicators lead to a head-on collision in the center, where they will exchange blows until someone is dragged away or passes out.
I’ve got Van by a far smaller edge than the bookies do. He’s more collected than Borjas, which should help him weather the inevitable firefights, in addition to possessing a stronger body of work and more weaponry in his inventory. Van’s technical advantage should prevail in a slugfest, but Borjas has a good chance of knocking him out, particularly when he catches Van sitting back with his famous straight right.
UFC 295 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks places a -220 price tag on Van, and while I’m not completely in agreement with such a juiced price, I do believe he’s the rightful favorite and one of the most valuable straight wagers on the prelims.
UFC Pick: Joshua Van ML (-220) [2.20u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
