The UFC returns to Vegas this weekend for their final showcase of 2023, and we could witness either a masterclass or wrestling domination or a striker vs. grappler matchup between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington headline the event.
Defending flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and a familiar foe Brandon Royval exchange leather in the co-main event, ensuring this Saturday’s final fight card of 2023 will end the year in style.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 296 main and co-main event.
Picks Summary
- Leon Edwards ML (-160)
- Alexandre Pantoja ML (-175)Â
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
UFC 296 Welterweight Main Event Championship Bout
Saturday, December 16, 2023 – 11:55 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Leon Edwards
- Edwards Pro MMA Record: 21-3-0
- Edwards Knockout Wins: 7
- Edwards Submission Wins: 3
There is indisputable evidence that Leon Edwards holds a prominent position among the UFC’s top fighters and is regarded as one of the greatest in terms of skill and ability. Ultimately, he has achieved victory over Kamaru Usman on two occasions. Although his knockout triumph over ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ in 2022 will be remembered as a legendary feat, his most recent triumph may be considered even more remarkable.
‘Rocky’ effectively dominated Usman in all aspects and effortlessly managed to counter his aggressive wrestling techniques. It was quite enlightening to see that the individual from Birmingham, England, entered the promotion with a background in kickboxing.
Colby Covington
- Covington Pro MMA Record: 17-3-0
- Covington Knockout Wins: 2
- Covington Submissions: 6
Covington has established himself as a successful competitor in the octagon, and his outspoken nature has contributed to his popularity to some extent, despite his somewhat restrained behavior leading up to this event.
Nevertheless, he has not engaged in any fights since his triumphant victory over Jorge Masvidal in March 2022. It is worth noting that Masvidal has retired from the sport. Furthermore, this particular triumph against ‘Gamebred’ remains his sole victory since 2020.
Covington demonstrates exceptional fighting skills at his peak. Despite not being the most powerful in his weight class, ‘Chaos’ excels as a suffocating wrestler, particularly when maintaining a relentless tempo.
Edwards vs. Covington: Fight Tape Analysis
Colby possesses exceptional offensive wrestling talents. Although his striking technique may not be exceptional, his relentless forward movement and swinging punches make it difficult for opponents to defend against him. This aggressive approach often enables him to close the distance and exploit his adversaries in close-quarters combat or successfully execute takedowns.
That technique has propelled him over formidable attackers such as Masvidal and Robbie Lawler, but will it suffice to surpass Edwards? It doesn’t seem probable.
Although Rocky lacks the knockout power, his range and movement are significantly superior to Colby’s, especially compared to the aging Lawler and Masvidal, whom Covington most recently defeated.
It seems likely that if ‘Chaos’ attempts to approach Edwards with a similar blueprint, the United Kingdom’s finest will retreat and confront him with a vicious counterattack. He’ll struggle to find an answer.
UFC 296 Main Event Odds & Prediction
At this juncture, Edwards appears to be more comprehensively equipped than Covington, and X-factors, including Covington’s protracted absence, Edwards’ confidence, and his apparent lack of irritation in response to Covington’s derogatory remarks all support Edwards.
Edwards will face significant difficulty due to Covington’s formidable fortitude and propensity to accelerate at an absurd rate; however, the selection is ‘Rocky’ through a late stoppage.
UFC Pick: Edwards ML (-160) [1.60u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
UFC 296 Flyweight Co-Main Event Championship Bout
Saturday, December 16, 2023 – 11:25 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Alexandre Pantoja
- Pantoja Pro MMA Record: 26-5-0
- Pantoja Knockout Wins: 8
- Pantoja Submission Wins: 10
Pantoja, who is 33 years old, last contested at UFC 290 and upset Brandon Moreno by split decision to earn the flyweight championship. Pantoja has been grossly underestimated throughout his career in the UFC, with a 10-3 promotional record. His notable UFC victories include those over Alex Perez, Manel Kape, Moreno, and Royval, whom he faces this weekend for the championship.
Brandon Royval
- Royval Pro MMA Record: 15-6-0
- Royval Knockout Wins: 4
- Royval Submission Wins: 9
After three consecutive victories following his defeat to Pantoja in 2021, he has earned a title chance with Royval. At 125 pounds, the 31-year-old is a very exciting combatant to witness because he can knock out and submit opponents. In addition to four stoppage victories and a 5-2 record in the UFC, he has been submitted twice in his career, one of which came against his weekend opposition.
Pantoja vs. Royval: Fight Tape Analysis
In my opinion, Marc Montoya, an intelligent coach, would likely guide Royval to focus on stand-up fighting and utilize his agile striking skills to inflict damage on his opponent. However, Royval will also strategically use his jiu-jitsu techniques when the opportunity arises.
Pantoja will minimize the opponent’s physical abilities by swiftly approaching, gaining control, looking for his back, and repeatedly executing the same strategy that won him the first meeting.
UFC 296 Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds at OddsTrader aren’t putting as much faith in the defending champion as expected, and this comes as a surprise when considering his effortless journey to submitting a fatigued Royval the first time out.
Royval’s victories thus far have relied on his ability to go all out, but when said game plan doesn’t work out, he’s left depleted and defenseless, and that’s the biggest red flag. Behind a calming style and an excellent moneyline price, taking the straight wager on Pantoja could be the last time we receive such a respectable price.
UFC Pick: Pantoja ML (-175) [1.75u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
