The UFC returns to Sin City on Saturday, but it’s not your typical event. The promotion is celebrating its 300th PPV!
Per usual, I’m here covering all your betting needs for this Vegas fight card stacked with top-ranked talent, which includes two former champions in the preliminary opener!
Let’s not prolong the festivities any longer and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 300 preliminary card bouts, including analysis, MMA odds, and UFC predictions.
Picks Summary
- Diego Lopes ML (-138)
- Figueiredo-Garbrandt Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes
UFC 300 Featherweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, April 13, 2024 – 07:50 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Sodiq Yusuff
Sodiq Yusuff opted for sheer violence during his 2018 UFC debut after he cleared out Suman Mokhtarian in the first round. He went on to win another three contests, making it four straight, but since then, he’s gone 2-2 in the octagon, and his previous hype has slightly dwindled.
- Yusuff Pro Record: 13-3-0
- Yusuff KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Yusuff Submission Wins: 1
Diego Lopes
Diego Lopes threw caution to the wind and accepted his UFC debut fight versus a top-ranked Movsar Evoloev on short notice last year. He made a great account of himself, instantly became a fan favorite, and has only grown that fan base with two additional fights in 2023 that he finished in the first round.
- Lopes Pro Record: 23-6-0
- Lopes KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Lopes Submission Wins: 12
Yusuff vs. Lopes: Fight Tape Analysis
This featherweight bout reminds me of Gaethje vs. Holloway, but a lower-ranked version. Not because of the skill sets presented but because we all love Yusuff and Lopes and genuinely don’t want to see either of them lose this weekend.
However, we’re not here to be soft-hearted; we’re here to break down the expected brutality and decide who owns the edge. On paper, Yusuff owns more experience, presents a slick striking offense, and has undoubtedly fought the stiffer level of competition. At the same time, he’s faltered in both fights versus top-15-ranked opponents Arnold Allen and Edson Barboza, both of whom broke him down with pressure.
Why is this relevant? Well, Diego Lopes, despite his lack of UFC experience, has almost double the professional MMA experience of Yusuff, and guess what—he brings the heat like a pressure cooker!
Yusuff works well in basic approaches; his fundamentals are excellent, and it’s his fight to lose from a technical standpoint. Unfortunately for him, Lopes is a madman, and his erratic style is built to overcome a more conservative fighter like Yusuff.
UFC 300 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has placed Lopes as the betting favorite, although a close line still shows value for backers of the Brazilian fan favorite.
Without an early knockout, I’m unsure Yusuff can outclass the pressure Lopes will bring to the cage throughout three rounds, especially after watching him fade after the first round versus an older, aging fighter in Barboza last time out.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Yusuff take the first five minutes on the scorecards. Still, eventually, Lopes will continue coming forward, and he’ll eventually break his opponent to continue the win streak.
UFC Pick: Lopes ML (-138) [1.38u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Cody Garbrandt vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
UFC 300 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, April 13, 2024 – 06:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Deiveson Figueiredo
The former king of the flyweight division, where he reigned as champion before shifting weight class after 10 wins and 7 stoppages, continues his bantamweight quest this weekend. To the delight of the MMA fan base, he’ll open UFC 300 alongside a former champion at 135 pounds.
- Figueiredo Pro Record: 22-3-1
- Figueiredo KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Figueiredo Submission Wins: 8
Cody Garbrandt
It’s been a long time since Cody Garbrandt held the bantamweight strap, but after a rough stretch that saw him lose the title and go 1-5 in five bouts with four knockout losses, it can be put in the past. He’s now riding his first two-fight win streak since 2016, including a KO/TKO win over Brian Kelleher last December.
- Garbrandt Pro Record: 14-5-0
- Garbrandt KO/TKO Wins: 11
- Garbrandt Submission Wins: 0
Figueiredo vs. Garbrandt: Fight Tape Analysis
We have two former champions opening UFC 300, and the beauty of this contest is that both men possess one-punch knockout power!
For Garbrandt, speed is one of the driving forces behind his success, as he fights behind slick, fast footwork and hands of steel.
Brazil’s Figueiredo is a former flyweight and multi-time champion who also has fast twitches and speed elements in his game. However, he’s predominantly known for the savageness he brings to the octagon, whether it’s his slick scrambling skills, submissions, or the fight-ending striking offense he owns.
UFC 300 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have positioned Figueiredo as the betting favorite, and it’s understandable. He undoubtedly has more paths to victory, but I wouldn’t be jumping at the opportunity to fade Garbrandt at this juiced number.
Instead of self-debating the moneyline, I see betting potential in the under 2½ rounds. Six of Figueiredo’s previous seven UFC bouts didn’t go the distance, and 10 of Garbrandt’s 14 UFC contests ended via KO/TKO, and it’ll be no surprise if we witness sheer violence when these two are locked in the octagon.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-140) [1.40u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
