The UFC returns to Brazil this Saturday, and with at least one Brazilian native scheduled to compete in all fourteen scheduled contests, we should expect plenty of native success in Rio de Janeiro.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 301 main card, including my in-depth breakdown based on the UFC odds.
And don’t forget to check out more picks on our YouTube channel. Our expert covered the Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez and Ihor Potieria vs. Michel Pereira bouts.
Picks Summary:
- Petrino by KO/TKO (+110)
- Caio-Borralho by Decision (+200)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino
UFC 301 Light Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Jeunesse Arena
Anthony Smith
With eight years of experience, 21 UFC bouts and a career that’s seen him mostly compete against the top-15-ranked light heavyweights, Anthony Smith is no stranger to a formidable challenge.
However, aged 35, behind some durability concerns that are yet to be answered, can “Lionheart” overcome an undefeated Brazilian prospect in front of a roaring Rio crowd this weekend?
- Smith Pro MMA Record: 37-19
- Smith KOs: 19
- Smith Submissions: 15
Vitor Petrino
Since blasting himself onto the UFC roster via Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022, Brazil’s Vitor Petrino has rapidly climbed the rankings with four consecutive wins, including a KO/TKO and submission victory.
Petrino is still gaining that elite-level experience, but as far as potential goes, it’s hard to deny that we could be looking at a future title challenger.
- Petrino Pro MMA Record: 11-0
- Petrino KOs: 7
- Petrino Submissions: 1
Smith vs. Petrino: Fight Tape Analysis
Aged just 26, expect to see improvements from Petrino each time he steps into the octagon. It’s no secret that he enjoys engaging in a striking battle, but an arm triangle choke over Marcin Prachnio proved his ability to mix it up and find success wherever the fight occurs.
Smith is a veteran with notable attributes in all facets of MMA. However, there’s no denying his willingness to grapple in recent years. Considering the questionable chin and wobbly legs we’ve seen him on lately, he’ll likely want to test himself in this area rather than face Petrino’s power punches.
UFC 301 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Petrino enters the UFC 301 main card as one of the biggest betting favorites at sharp sportsbooks. Who knows if that’s glaring proof of Petrino’s potential or a fade on Smith in the latter stages of his career? Personally, I believe it’s a mix of both, and the chips truly seem to be stacked against the aging vet in this bout.
I expect Petrino to be faster, more powerful and willing to go to war in striking exchanges. Smith returns from a devasting knockout defeat to Khalil Rountree just four months ago, and this won’t help his durability and confidence now that he’s faced with another heavy hitter.
Behind commendable takedown defense, an age and power advantage, as well as a supportive Brazilian crown, I envision Petrino’s brute force putting Smith to sleep within the first two rounds.
UFC Pick: Petrino by KO/TKO (+110) [1u returns 1.10u profit] at Bet365
Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho
UFC 301 Middleweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Jeunesse Arena
Paul Craig
To put it in a nice way, Paul Craig’s UFC career has been tumultuous. With nine wins, seven losses and one draw, the fighting pride of Scotland has been unpredictable as he’s struggled to prevent alternating wins and losses during parts of his eight-year UFC tenure.
- Craig Pro MMA Record: 17-7-1
- Craig KOs: 4
- Craig Submissions: 13
Caio Borralho
In a middleweight division packed with mid to lower-level talent, Brazil’s Caio Borralho has been a welcome addition thus far. Since his promotional debut in 2022, his finishing ability has lacked, but five dominant performances, no matter the method, place him as one to watch for the future.
- Borralho Pro MMA Record: 15-1-0
- Borralho KOs: 4
- Borralho Submissions: 4
Craig vs. Borralho: Fight Tape Analysis
When you first glance at Borralho’s karate-style stance, you might be fooled into thinking that his preferred game plan is to exchange strikes. However, for most of his career, this has been used as nothing more than a set-up for the eventual takedowns that will eventually come.
There’s no hiding from his lack of finishing ability, but as a fighter you can rely on, Borralho has the technical smarts and fight IQ that prevents him from making many mistakes.
Opposed to Craig, the Brazilian will have to be cautious of the spammed submissions, but as a BJJ black belt, does he really? Aged 36, Craig has the experience factor, but beyond that, he won’t match the athletic offensive takedowns, kickboxing and cardio of Borralho.
UFC 301 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Top-rated sportsbooks aren’t taking any chances with Borralho, and he’ll kickstart the UFC 301 main card with the most juiced moneyline price of all competitors. There is, however, much support backing Borralho in being placed in this favorable position.
Outside of the Sneaky Craig sub—unlikely—we should see another classic Borralho performance in which he dictates the striking volume or ground control, depending on where the fights are taking place.
We can find value beyond the overpriced moneyline by predicting the outcome. Although Craig’s durability is a concern, I believe Borralho doesn’t hunt for finishes, as he’s content with winning the fight via the judge’s scorecards.
UFC Pick: Borralho by Decision (+200) [1u returns 2u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
