Editor’s note: The Jean Silva vs. William Gomis fight was canceled after Gomis was seen in bad shape during the official weigh-in on Friday
Following a 5724-mile journey, the UFC will land in Rio de Janeiro this weekend, as the Brazilian mixed martial arts talents will be on full display.
You already know the drill; I’m back again to cater to all your betting needs for a fight card stacked with top-tier competitors.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 301 preliminary card contests, with the best UFC odds from our top sportsbooks.
And don’t forget to check out more picks on our YouTube channel. Our expert covered the Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez and Ihor Potieria vs. Michel Pereira bouts.
Picks Summary
- Gomis ML (+100)
- Ruffy vs. Mullarkey Under 2.5 (-190)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jean Silva vs. William Gomis
UFC 301 Featherweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Jeunesse Arena
Jean Silva
After making his promotional debut earlier this year, Jean Silva emphatically represented Brazil and collected a TKO stoppage victory to prove his worth as a featherweight contender to keep an eye on.
- Silva Pro Record: 12-2-0
- Silva KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Silva Submission Wins: 2
William Gomis
Much like his Brazilian opponent this weekend, William Gomis made a statement for his nation upon arrival at the UFC. However, his experience extends further, as he’s already collected three consecutive impressive performances.
- Gomis Pro Record: 13-2-0
- Gomis KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Gomis Submission Wins:1
Silva vs. Gomis: Fight Tape Analysis
Jean Silva is on a 9-fight win streak, has won all but one of his pro-MMA bouts via KO/TKO or submission, and could certainly climb the featherweight ranks in the years to come. Unfortunately, the success he’s garnered to date hasn’t been displayed at a UFC level.
Silva’s striking style includes forward pressure behind accurate combinations, fluid movement, and lightning-quick reactions. On the downside, he keeps his hands low. Conversely, Gomis can match the aforementioned attributes but with more success at range.
Should Gomis struggle to prevent Silva’s pressure and fail to keep the striking exchanges at a distance, he has respectable wrestling and ground-and-pound offense as the perfect backup plan.
UFC 301 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
With a fight card brimming with homegrown talent, fading Brazilian fighters on home soil is never easy. That said, when the value is undeniable, it’s worth taking a risk on betting underdogs that might not be lined up the same way if the event was taking place elsewhere.
We must always consider the judges stealing our money with their incompetent and, often, downright disgusting decision-making. However, Gomis’s rise throughout the 145-lb rankings has been a delight to watch, and if anybody has the talents and questionable opposition to get the job done, the Frenchman is a worthy selection for Saturday night.
Gomis presents blistering kicks, effortless combinations at range, and a stylistic matchup where I expect him to have the grappling edge if needed. It’s not the wildest “underdog” position on the card, but I’ll gladly take the +100 price and fade the location factor, which I believe pushed these odds into this position in the first place.
Gomis ML: Supporting UFC 301 Trends
- Gomis has won all 3 of his UFC bouts
- Gomis is on an 11-fight win streak since 2016
- Gomis has won 7 of his previous 11 bouts inside the distance
UFC Pick: Gomis ML (+100) [1u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey
UFC 301 Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Jeunesse Arena
Mauricio Ruffy
As far as UFC debuts go, Mauricio Ruffy couldn’t have landed a more ideal fight card, as the Brazilian native has the opportunity to make his presence known in front of a home crowd. With four consecutive wins by KO/TKO leading him to the dance, expect fireworks from this lightweight newcomer who’s never gone the distance in his pro career.
- Ruffy Pro Record: 9-1-0
- Ruffy KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Ruffy Submission Wins: 0
Jamie Mullarkey
Main event flyweight title challenger Steve Erceg won’t be the lone Australian national defending the honor of those Down Under. Veteran UFC competitor Jamie Mullarkey is looking to return to the win column following a round one TKO loss he suffered at the end of 2023.
- Mullarkey Pro Record: 17-7-0
- Mullarkey KO/TKO Wins: 10
- Mullarkey Submission Wins: 3
Ruffy vs. Mullarkey: Fight Tape Analysis
Striking output, defense, and fighting behind the jab is what Mullarkey can achieve during standing exchanges, but he’s typically known as a slow starter. When he struggles in striking battles, he does have the offensive wrestling and top control to rely on.
Unfortunately for the Aussie, he’s facing a fast starter with great takedown defense and fight-ending power. Ruffy’s finishing abilities extend through rounds one, two, and three, although he is untested in the latter rounds against a higher level of competition.
UFC 301 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Mullarkey’s durability has recently come into question, which raises red flags when faced with a violent debutant who’ll be looking to make a huge impact with his coming-out party on home soil.
Don’t be surprised if Ruffy ends this fight early by utilizing his striking prowess and powerful strikes. In contrast, I could also see Mullarkey wearing on him, finding a top position in the third round, and upsetting the inexperienced favorite.
Either way, we shouldn’t expect this fight to go the distance. With a respectable -190 price on the under, we can avoid the variables of a proven finisher coupled with a UFC debut and rely on this fight ending before the second half of the third round.
Under 2.5 Rounds: Supporting UFC 301 Facts
- Ruffy has never gone the distance in 10 pro MMA bouts
- Ruffy has won 100% of his career victories via KO/TKO
- 60% of Mullarkey’s UFC losses were by KO/TKO
- 40% of Mullarkey’s UFC victories were by KO/TKO
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 (-190) [1.9u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
