The UFC lights up Newark, New Jersey, this Saturday, and we could be witnessing a middleweight title eliminator in the co-main event between Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa.
Elsewhere on the card, the always entertaining Kevin Holland is preparing to face a heavy-handed Polish challenger, Michal Oleksiejczuk, in a fight that’s almost certain to deliver a bloody end.
On that note, let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 302 main card.
And don’t forget to check out more UFC picks on our YouTube channel. Today, our expert covered the Strickland vs. Costa and Makhachev vs. Poirier bouts.
Picks Summary
- Strickland-Costa Over 3.5 Rounds (-120)
- Kevin Holland Wins Inside Distance (-120)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
UFC 302 Middleweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, June 01, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Prudential Center
Sean Strickland
The controversial yet widely popular former middleweight champion, Sean Strickland, returns to the octagon this weekend. Without a doubt, he’ll be fully prepared and willing to duke it out with another top-10-ranked middleweight in an attempt to restate his position as a division title challenger.
Since dethroning Adesanya as a huge underdog, Strickland, despite losing to Dricus Du Plessis, has proved he’s a top contender in the division. Although his first title defense ended in defeat, a split decision outcome didn’t paint him in a bad light whatsoever.
- Strickland Pro MMA Record: 28-6-0
- Strickland KOs: 11
- Strickland Submissions: 4
Paulo Costa
At this point of Paulo Costa’s career, the hype he once owned is undoubtedly at an all-time low. Following a five-fight win streak to begin his UFC tenure, the upper echelon of the 185lb weight class has proved challenging, as he’s now 1-3 in his four most recent bouts.
- Costa Pro MMA Record: 14-3-0
- Costa KOs: 11
- Costa Submissions: 1
Strickland vs. Costa: Fight Tape Analysis
While I’m not here to intentionally throw dirt on his name, Costa could be one of UFC’s most overrated top-ranked fighters. The middleweight division is renowned for its lack of talent compared to other weight classes, and I truly believe the Brazilian would be ranked outside of the top 15 if it wasn’t for the division he’s currently sitting in.
As a martial artist, Costa prefers to strike, and his talents took him far outside the top rankings. However, when matched against specialists of their craft, he’s faltered severely, and although we can credit his toughness and longevity, this sport holds a “what have you done for me lately” stance, which he simply isn’t living up to.
Strickland, however, with his high striking output, endless cardio and continuous rise through the rankings during his UFC career, is unquestionably worthy of his No. 2 ranking position. The one red flag for the former champ is that he can sometimes lack aggression, and this inability to finish fights inside the distance could be to his detriment if he’s not careful.
UFC 302 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top-rated sportsbooks believes Strickland has the highest percentage chance of victory this weekend, and so do we. However, instead of backing the slight juice we’re finding on the outright market, the over/under prices certainly provide more intrigue.
Strickland owns the striking credentials to outbox anybody in the middleweight division. While some may argue that Costa holds the power advantage, Alex Pereira remains the only opponent who recently finished Strickland.
Furthermore, Costa just hasn’t been a threat to the opposition during his stint as a top-ranked middleweight. His cardio has shown red flags, and it’s difficult to envision him outclassing Strickland in a striking battle expected this weekend.
Durability has been a main component of both fighter’s careers to date, so backing this fight to reach the fourth round is worthwhile at the current price of -120.
UFC Pick: Strickland-Costa Over 3.5 Rounds (-120) [1.2u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
UFC 302 Middleweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, June 01, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Prudential Center
Kevin Holland
If there’s one recurring outcome when Kevin Holland is scheduled to fight, we’ll see an entertaining 3-5 rounds no matter the outcome.
“The Trailblazer” has been one of the most active fighters since his debut in 2020, with 21 walks to the octagon and an entertainment value that’s provided 12 KO/TKO or submission finishes in victory and defeat.
- Holland Pro MMA Record: 25-11-0
- Holland KOs: 13
- Holland Submissions: 8
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Poland’s Michal Oleksiejczuk is no underdog to overlook; however, we can’t ignore the fact that he’s struggled for consistency in the UFC since his 2017 debut. With alternative wins and losses over the past two years, it’s become apparent that the 29-year-old cannot hang with the division elite as his UFC wins to date have been against mid-tier competition.
- Oleksiejczuk Pro MMA Record: 19-7-0
- Oleksiejczuk KOs: 14
- Oleksiejczuk Submissions: 1
Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk: Fight Tape Analysis
Although some critics would place Holland as a mid-tier opponent behind a 12-8 promotional record, the diversity of his skill set and the level of opposition he’s faced to date are unquestionably levels above that of Oleksiejczuk and this experience factor could be the difference-maker this weekend.
It’s no secret that Oleksiejczuk has relied on his striking power to collect wins during his career, particularly in the UFC, where 86% of his wins have arrived via KO/TKO. In contrast, Holland not only holds KO potential, but his BJJ offensive has regularly been a fallback plan he can rely on.
Behind a significant size advantage, it’s challenging to envision Holland falling into the dangerous striking traps Oleksiejczuk will need to win this bout. In addition, the grappling aspect will be presented to the American throughout the three rounds.
UFC 302 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Holland as a betting favorite, but his Polish opponent doesn’t have the longevity or patience to fight in three-round wars, which opens up some added value in the prop market.
Whether he opts to strike and utilize the size advantage standing, or if he wants to grapple and pinpoint the weakness of Oleksiejczuk, Holland shouldn’t have trouble returning to the win column with a KO/TKO or submission finish on Saturday.
Bettors could also consider a round 1 KO prop on Oleksiejczuk because outside of this potential outcome, I don’t see the underdog presenting a threat. Holland, the diverse fighter in this contest with multiple paths to victory, and the ITD prop at -120 just cannot be ignored.
UFC Pick: Kevin Holland Wins Inside Distance (-120) [1.2u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
