The UFC travels to The Garden State this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a New Jersey fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 302 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Almeida-Kopylov Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
- Grant Dawson by KO or Decision (-180)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Roman Kopylov vs. Cesar Almeida
UFC 303 Middleweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, June 01, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Prudential Center
Roman Kopylov
Behind a 4-0 UFC win streak and four KO/TKO stoppages, Roman Kopylov began the year as a serious prospect until Antony Hernandez managed to choke him into submission at UFC 298.
Aged 33, the Russian is no prospect, but he’s made his kickboxing skills known, and this striking trait will be tested this weekend.
- Kopylov Pro Record: 12-3-0
- Kopylov KO/TKO Wins: 11
- Kopylov Submission Wins: 0
Cesar Almeida
Two months following his UFC debut, former kickboxing champion and the man most known for going the distance with Alex Pereira in GLORY returns to the octagon looking to replicate his previous bout that ended with some vicious elbows and a TKO victory.
- Almeida Pro Record: 5-0-0
- Almeida KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Almeida Submission Wins: 0
Kopylov vs. Almeida: Fight Tape Analysis
One aspect of this fight is guaranteed: Cesar Almeida will not attempt to grapple or take this fight to the ground. If we look at Kopylov’s fights to date, we could also be led to believe he’s also going to avoid grappling scenarios. However, given Almeida’s lack of grappling experience, it might be the perfect game plan for Kopylov, who’s previously trained with many strong wrestlers and will undoubtedly hold an edge.
On the feet, the traditional Muay Thai style of Almeida is unquestionably dangerous; he’ll plant his feet, throw mean combinations and mix up blistering kicks when necessary. Kopylov, on the other hand, is fast, confident and light on his feet while also boasting a range of varied attacks.
The movement will be crucial for the Russian this Saturday, as we should anticipate his large-scale campaign against Almeida’s power.
UFC 302 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks places Kopylov as a slight betting underdog, which is surprising considering the experience he’s garnered compared to Almeida.
However, the total under 2 ½ rounds at -130 is more intriguing to me. Almeida is a world-class kickboxer with 4 of his pro-MMA bouts ended via KO/TKO, and in Kopylov’s 12 career wins to date, he’s finished 11 of those bouts via strikes.
UFC Pick: Almeida-Kopylov Under 2.5 Rounds (-130) [1.3u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Under 2.5 Rounds: Supporting UFC 302 Facts
- 11 of Kopylov’s 12 career wins were by KO/TKO
- Almeida has won 90% of his pro MMA bouts via KO/TKO
- Kopylov has gone the distance in just 2 of his 15 pro career bouts
Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki
UFC 302 Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, June 01, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Prudential Center
Grant Dawson
American Top Team standout Grant Dawson had eight wins and zero defeats as a UFC competitor and received his first main event assignment last October. Nobody expected Bobby Green to spoil the win streak, though, as -450 betting tickets went up in smoke.
Despite Dawson’s first defeat being fresh on our minds, we cannot ignore what brought him into the top 15 rankings: heavy grappling, respectable cardio and a desire to choke his opponents into submission. He’s an elite grappler, and Saturday evening presents an interesting piece of matchmaking as he faces a fellow grappling ace.
- Dawson Pro Record: 20-2-1
- Dawson KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Dawson Submission Wins: 13
Joe Solecki
BJJ black belt Joe Solecki, in fourteen pro-MMA bouts to date, has submitted eight of his opponents and suffered just four defeats in a career spanning eight years. A 5-2 UFC record isn’t a bad start whatsoever, but he’s yet to face a top-ranked opponent, as Dawson will unquestionably be his toughest test to date.
- Solecki Pro Record: 13-4-0
- Solecki KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Solecki Submission Wins: 8
Dawson vs. Solecki: Fight Tape Analysis
Two BJJ black belts with many submission wins during their respective careers and positive UFC records obtained thus far… striking battle, anyone?
We see this all too often, where two mixed martial artists are specialists in one area but their styles cancel each other out, and we’re forced to watch a fight that plays into the opposite of their strong suits.
It’s hard to give Solecki the grappling edge because Dawson has excelled in this area against fellow grapplers. Pressure on the feet, power, fight IQ and finishing potential also go to Dawson, while I’d only give Solecki a slight boxing advantage.
UFC 302 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Dawson one of the biggest betting favorites at UFC 302. While I agree he should be favored, -500 is ridiculous and offers little value.
Dawson is a grinder with excellent cardio. He’s undoubtedly the better wrestler and is heavy on top. Although Solecki has displayed similar skills, he’s only been successful against opponents who are weak in said area.
Everyone is expecting Dawson to grab another rear naked choke or some form of submission. However, here’s the kicker: Solecki is a talented grappler and has never been submitted, so don’t be surprised when Dawson uses his top-heavy ground game to reign down punches and eventually find a ground-and-pound stoppage… Or, he’ll ride the top position to win the scorecards.
UFC Pick: Grant Dawson by KO or Decision (-180) [1.8u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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