The UFC is back in Vegas for a talent-stacked pay-per-view event this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for an undercard lined with prosperous fighters.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 303 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Payton Talbott Wins by KO/TKO (-165)Â
- Ricky Simon Wins by KO or Submission (+150)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri
UFC 303 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, June 29, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Payton Talbott
The UFC bantamweight is unequivocally one of the most talent-stacked weight classes, and with the latest addition of Payton Talbott, we just received even more argument fuel as to why 135-pound competitors involve fights you don’t want to miss.
Talbott, in particular, is 8-0 as a professional and has dominated the competition in his first two UFC bouts, his debut by submission and his second outing by KO/TKO. He’s the biggest betting favorite at UFC 303 [-1700] for several reasons, and his ascension through the rankings shouldn’t be overlooked.
- Talbott Pro Record: 8-0-0
- Talbott KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Talbott Submission Wins: 1
Yanis Ghemmouri
Unfortunately for France’s Yanis Ghemmouri, his second UFC appearance just got worse than his debut loss last September because he’s faced with one of the brightest prospects on the roster.
The Frenchman is serviceable in all areas, but the promotion is pushing Talbott harder than most bidding prospects, and this fight feels like a ‘lamb to the slaughter’ situation.
- Ghemmouri Pro Record: 12-2-0
- Ghemmouri KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Ghemmouri Submission Wins: 4
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri: Fight Tape Analysis
I’m not going to prolong a breakdown when it isn’t necessary. The question isn’t if Talbott will win; it’s how Talbott will win.
We’re seeing bettors rush the Talbott round-one prop, but this could be a grave mistake. He’s a methodical and patient mixed martial artist who prefers to stand and strike where his high number of KO/TKO results – amateur and professional – often arrive due to accumulative damage.
Talbott is so fast, precise, and smooth with the striking offense that I believe he can eventually cause Ghemmouri to crumble. He’ll also be the more skilled wrestler with a submission threat, but given the spotlight of UFC 303, he understands that a KO/TKO victory is bigger for his stock. That said, I don’t expect to see this knockout result surface until round two or three based on the favorites’ in-octagon patience.
UFC 303 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds show Talbott as the biggest betting favorite on the card at -1700. We don’t see such numbers in MMA odds, but this pricing is certainly just.
Forget the moneyline; however, there’s no value to be found. Instead, take Talbott to extend his KO/TKO highlight reel against an opponent that already suffered a knockout defeat in his promotional debut.
UFC Pick: Payton Talbott Wins by KO/TKO (-165) at Bet365
Talbott by KO/TKO: Supporting UFC 303 Facts
- Ghemmouri lost his UFC debut by KO/TKO.
- Talbott has won all but one of his pro-MMA bouts inside the distance.
- Talbott won 6 of his 8 pro-MMA bouts via KO/TKO.
- Talbott won 3 of his 5 amateur MMA bouts via KO/TKO.
Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira
UFC 303 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, June 29, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Ricky Simon
Twelve fights into his UFC tenure, 31-year-old Ricky Simon is experiencing somewhat of a rough path. He enters UFC 303 riding a two-fight losing streak, although losses to top-ranked contenders Mario Batusita and Yadong Song hold no shame whatsoever.
Now, with a significant drop in competition, Simon enters as a significant betting favorite and, on paper, is being placed directly on the path to rebuilding himself as a serious bantamweight contender.
- Simon Pro Record: 20-5-0
- Simon KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Simon Submission Wins: 4
Vinicius Oliveira
Brazil’s Vinicius Oliveira is receiving a huge opportunity to jump the rankings this weekend following an ultra-impressive flying knee knockout. His regional scene fight tape provides much of the same, a lot of knockouts, and win or lose, this man will leave it all in the octagon.
- Oliveira Pro Record: 20-3-0
- Oliveira KO/TKO Wins: 16
- Oliveira Submission Wins: 2
Simon vs. Oliveira: Fight Tape Analysis
Even during his MMA regional stint, Oliveira notably struggled with his takedown defense. Obviously, he’ll be working on these mistakes in training. Still, when coupled with an undesirable cardio and a heavy offensive wrestler in Simon, he could be approaching an elite-level wake-up call this weekend.
Simon has notably been dropped on multiple occasions. So, with an absolute madman of a power striker in front of him, the game plan is simple: spam takedowns and don’t take the risk.
I believe Simon has the IQ, experience, and knowledge camp in the American Top Team to write the perfect blueprint. As long as he avoids Oliveira’s one clear path to victory (which is a standing KO/TKO), he should sail to victory and justify the current moneyline price of -225.
UFC 303 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with top-rated sportsbooks of -225 on the Simon outright isn’t a comfortable wagering position on a fighter who’s on a losing streak. However, fellow believers of Simon will understand that he’s competing against a man who’s all in or out.
Oliveira’s three career losses were by knockout because he doesn’t allow the judges to dictate his career. He’ll either find the sweet knockout or make enough mistakes to become a victim of one. And in this scenario, you have to pick the heavy top of Simon to get the job done and eventually find a ground and pound or submission after the Brazilian makes a mistake or his cardio wilts.
UFC Pick: Simon Wins By KO or Submission (+150) at Bet365
Simon Wins Inside the Distance: Supporting UFC 303 Facts
- Simon has won 50% of his UFC bouts inside the distance.
- 3 of Simon’s previous 4 UFC wins were by KO/TKO or submission.
- All 3 of Oliveira’s pro-MMA losses were by KO/TKO.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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