The UFC travels Down Under this weekend as Sunny Australia hosts a talent-stacked PPV from the RAC Arena.
As usual, we’re covering all your betting needs based on our UFC odds. So, let’s waste no time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 305 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Jack Jenkins by KO & Under 2.5 Rounds (-165)
- Kenan Song ML (-180)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns
UFC 305 Featherweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, August 17, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at the RAC Arena
Jack Jenkins
Australian prospect Jack Jenkins was off to a bright start post-Dana White’s Contender Series. Two straight victories, including a dub over veteran Jamall Emmers, was a noteworthy start, then he met Chepe Mariscal and got blitzed within two rounds.
Fortunately for him, the UFC has gifted Jenkins the perfect bounce-back spot because they need winners when traveling to Perth, and if there’s a layup fight, this would be it.
- Jenkins Pro Record: 12-3-0
- Jenkins KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Jenkins Submission Wins: 3
Herbert Burns
In hindsight, it’s crazy looking back at Herbert Burns finish Nate Landwehr via KO/TKO. Run that fight back 100 times, and I’m giving Nate 99 of those bouts, as the younger brother of Gilbert hasn’t lived up to the family name and is arguably approaching the final fight of his UFC career.
Burns has lost three straight bouts inside the distance since 2020, and it hasn’t been close. It’s no secret that he’s a submission-or-bust type of fighter, and when the pressure is put on him, he wilts to damage and isn’t cut out for this level of MMA.
- Burns Pro Record: 11-5-0
- Burns KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Burns Submission Wins: 3
Jenkins vs. Burns: Fight Tape Analysis
Jenkins has been underwhelmed during certain parts of his UFC tenure, and his failure to secure a stoppage victory is certainly a concern around his finishing ability at this level. However, if he cannot stop the frail Herbert Burns, he should be cut from the company alongside his Brazilian foe on Saturday night.
This is the layup of all layups for Jenkins. Burns might come out strong for the first round, but time and time again, he proves that without an early grappling exchange and quick submission, he just isn’t built to fight for 15 minutes.
UFC 305 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top-rated sportsbooks places Jenkins as a -800 favorite. So, it’s safe to say that we’re all expecting the same outcome. Fortunately, Burns is nothing more than a lamb being put to slaughter, and this favors Jenkins grabbing his first highlight reel victory under the UFC banner.
I’d be surprised to see this fight reach the second round, but either way, Jenkins will totally outclass Burns in striking exchanges and eventually find a knockout win. Combine these factors and grab yourself a -165 price.
UFC Pick: Jenkins by KO/TKO & Under 2.5 (-165) [1.65u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Jenkins KO & U2.5: Supporting UFC 305 Facts
- Burns has lost three straight fights via KO/TKO since 2020.
- 42% of Jenkins’s pro career wins were by knockout.
- All but one of Jenkins’s MMA regional victories were by knockout.
Kenan Song vs. Ricky Glenn
UFC 305 Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, August 17, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at the RAC Arena
Kenan Song
Seven years, nine fights, and a 5-4 promotional record. It hasn’t been the most prolific UFC tenure for China’s Kenan Song. Still, he’s no slouch with the right opponent under specific stylistic circumstances, and such a situation could be presented with his weekend opposition.
- Song Pro Record: 21-8-0
- Song KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Song Submission Wins: 9
Ricky Glenn
If you thought Song’s UFC career was underwhelming, then let’s take a look at his UFC 305 opponent, Ricky Glenn. The 35-year-old has won one fight since the end of 2018 and returns to the octagon following back-to-back knockout losses in 2023.
- Glenn Pro Record: 22-8-2
- Glenn KO/TKO Wins: 11
- Glenn Submission Wins: 5
Song vs. Glenn: Fight Tape Analysis
Skill-for-skill, I wouldn’t argue that Glenn is the more talented martial artist overall. However, there is an elephant in the room, and that’s his untrustworthy chin. Outside of his knockout defeats to Christos Giagos and Drew Dober last year, he’s also been compromised on many occasions, even in winning bouts.
A weak chin is the last questionable attribute you want to have when facing Kenan Song. The Chinaman will bring a firefight, and if you own a level of durability not up to scratch, he’s the man who’ll put it to the test.
UFC 305 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
I don’t blame those staying clear of this fight, but we have a fighter in Glenn who cannot be trusted to get takedowns. He has suffered various injuries and displayed horrid durability in his return to the octagon after his injury.
Song is no elite lightweight contender, but we have no reason to question his durability, and that’s what I believe this fight boils down to. The most durable fighter will prevail, which undeniably sides with ‘The Assassin,’ who lives to deliver more damage and a potential knockout across three rounds.
UFC Pick: Song ML (-180) [1.8u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Song Moneyline: Supporting UFC 305 Facts
- Glenn lost his previous two fights via KO/TKO in round one.
- Glenn has won just one UFC fight since November 2018.
- Song is 3-3 in his six most recent UFC bouts.
- 60% of Song’s UFC wins were by KO/TKO.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler.
