The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon for a one-off, unique event at the Las Vegas Sphere as Noche UFC pays tribute to Mexican Independence with an absolute banger of a fight card!
Brian Ortega, Diego Lopes, Ronaldo Rodriguez and Ode Osbourne are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas Denver main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Lopes ML (-175)
- Rodriguez-Osbourne Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC 306 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 14, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET
- Location: The Sphere, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 10
- Main Event: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili (UFC Bantamweight Title Bout)
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
UFC 306 Featherweight Main Card Bout
Brian Ortega
Four octagon appearances in four years isn’t the activity we’d like to see from the always-exciting Brian Ortega. Still, finally, for the first time since 2019, we’re going to see T-City compete twice in the same calendar year as the Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard continues his path to claiming a third title opportunity at 145 pounds.
T-City hasn’t reached the pinnacle of UFC featherweight glory. Still, championship bout defeats to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski are consecutive title losses against some of the best ever to do it. This doesn’t throw shade on what Ortega has accomplished, and he’s been involved in some of the most memorable fights in company history.
- Ortega Pro MMA Record: 16-3-0
- Ortega KOs: 3
- Ortega Submissions: 8
Diego Lopes
Ortega is a legend from the previous generation of UFC featherweight superstars, while his weekend opponent is part of the new generation. After losing his UFC debut but putting up a valiant effort in a short-notice fight against a top-ranked Movsar Evloev, diehard MMA enthusiasts knew we had something special on our hands with Diego Lopes.
In just over a year, the Brazilian-born 145-pound standout has skyrocketed into the featherweight top rankings with four consecutive victories. He most recently dispatched a former top contender in Dan Ige, and now, with his biggest name to date, he could slip into a number one contender fight should he walk out of Noche UFC victorious.
- Lopes Pro MMA Record: 25-6-0
- Lopes KOs: 10
- Lopes Submissions: 12
Ortega vs. Lopes: Fight Tape Analysis
Since an early age, Ortega and Lopes have trained in jiu-jitsu with well-respected coaches and gyms. When you have two BJJ black belts going head-to-head in MMA, it’s not unfamiliar to witness a canceling-out situation, where the grappling is nullified by two elite competitors who don’t want to waste energy transitioning and hunting submissions to no avail.
This is a situation that I envision happening this weekend, which leads me to focus on the striking attributes of both men. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see somebody get a takedown, as the masterful BJJ skills would be on full display, but I think they’re both going to respect each other’s game, and the best kickboxer will ultimately decide the victor.
In a striking scenario, you have to respect Ortega’s experience. There’s no greater way to level up than by facing the best, and with Holloway and Volk on the resume, T-City has received the best experience possible.
However, Ortega has leveled up with a notable jab, front kicks, and a tendency to string together more combinations instead of singular shots like he used to; Lopes is live to exploit an undesirable willingness to take shots.
Damage is the number one scoring criterion, and Lopes has the forward pressure, power, and volume to gain favoritism from the judges. Without considering outside variables such as activity, age, and longevity, Ortega’s defensive frailties are a huge concern alone.
UFC 306 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Lopes as the betting favorite, and I agree with this position. The price is reasonable enough to wager as a straight play, and in a contest I expect to predominantly involve striking exchanges, the faster, more powerful kickboxer is likely to hold the advantage.
UFC Pick: Lopes ML (-175) [1.75u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne
UFC 306 Flyweight Main Card Bout
Ronaldo Rodriguez
With only one UFC appearance to his name, Mexico’s Ronaldo Rodrigues has an opportunity on the Noche UFC main card to make a name for himself. He ran through Denys Bondar in his promotional debut back in February.
As a flyweight reaching the top of MMA in his mid-twenties, an ability to finish his opponents has the potential to see him evolve into a Mexican star of the future.
- Rodriguez Pro MMA Record: 16-2-0
- Rodriguez KOs: 7
- Rodriguez Submissions: 5
Ode Osbourne
‘The Jamaican Sensation’ hasn’t quite delivered sensational performances of late. He’s riding a two-fight losing streak dating back to August 2023, and both of those losses exposed his ability to defend back sufficiently takes with back-to-back rear-naked choke defeats.
In fact, durability and defensive cues have been a concern for Ode throughout his UFC tenure. He’ll enter UFC 306 with a 4-5 promotional record, and all five defeats were ended by KO/TKO or submission.
- Osbourne Pro MMA Record: 12-7-0
- Osbourne KOs: 4
- Osbourne Submissions: 5
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne: Fight Tape Analysis
Ronaldo Rodrigues will make his second UFC appearance, so it isn’t easy to gauge what level he’s truly capable of reaching. However, we can only judge from what we’ve seen thus far, and he’s been great at cutting the cage when offensively striking, and off the back foot, he’s often looking to counter. The downside is that he rarely checks leg kicks, as he’s more concerned about returning fire than remaining defensively sound.
Osbourne is live to cause the upset as an underdog purely because of his UFC experience. Yes, a 4-5 UFC record isn’t pretty, but that’s eight more fights he’s had than Rodrigues at this level, and at 25, his opponent is still very green and untrustworthy.
Osbourne is well-rounded, but his ability to crack has been most notable in the octagon thus far. He knocked out Jerome Rivera beautifully, and it’s interesting to note that this opponent is also one of Rodrigues’ only career losses to date.
UFC 306 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks places Rodrigues as the betting favorite, but this moneyline position feels risky. Instead, I’m looking towards the total of -140 for the under.
Rodrigues has displayed some reckless tendencies throughout his career, and this lack of experience could cost him dearly compared to a capable finisher in Osbourne. Oppositely, Osbourne has been all in or all out in most of his UFC bouts to date, either managing to finish his fight inside the distance or getting finished while attempting to do so.
Rodrigues has won three consecutive fights inside the distance, including a round two submission in his debut, and Osbourne has seen the judges’ scorecards in just two of his nine UFC appearances to date. Both fighters present questionable fight IQs in dangerous situations, making them a perfect couple to hit under 2½ rounds.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-140) [1.4u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
