The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon for its annual end-of-year visit to Abu Dhabi, and we’ve been gifted with an absolute banger of a fight card!
Magomed Ankalaev, Aleksandar Rakic, Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC 308 main card analysis and predictions. And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. For this week, our expert analyzed the Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan and Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway matchups!
Picks Summary
- Ankalaev/Rakic Fight Goes the Distance (-165)
- Whittaker/Chimaev Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC 308 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway (UFC Featherweight Title Bout)
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic
UFC 308 Light Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Magomed Ankalaev
Is Magomed Ankalaev the chosen one to derail the hype of Alex Pereira? I guess we’ll have to wait and find out because the Russian, despite staying undefeated in 12 of his 13 UFC bouts, apparently needs to overcome another test before he warrants a light heavyweight title shot.
- Ankalaev Pro MMA Record: 19-1-1
- Ankalaev KOs: 10
- Ankalaev Submissions: 1
Aleksandar Rakic
That test arrives in the shape of Aleksandar Rakic, who many believe has the potential to spoil the Ankalaev hype train this weekend due to the versatile and domineering skill set he’s often displayed. Since joining the promotion in 2017, Rakic is 6-3, with his two most recent defeats coming against former division champions.
- Rakic Pro MMA Record: 14-4-0
- Rakic KOs: 9
- Rakic Submissions: 1
Ankalaev vs. Rakic: Fight Tape Analysis
Patience, composure and technical prowess perfectly explain the refined skill set of Magomed Ankalaev, who has looked superior in all but two of his 12 UFC appearances to date. Those two include a submission loss to Paul Craig, where he was dominating until a late stoppage sprung an upset, and the other involved an incredibly lackluster exchange with Jan Blachowicz that ended in a draw.
Ankalaev’s striking isn’t complex, but it’s fundamentally perfect. Defensively, he’s very aware, and of course, as a Dagestani, wrestling is always an option.
Rakic is also well-rounded but has a problem with fading in fights. He can fight a technical fight, but we cannot ignore his fight IQ, which has let him down on multiple occasions. He opts to trade wildly and often finishes on the wrong end of a stoppage loss, with the Prochazka bout being the perfect example.
UFC 308 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Rakic will be desperate to avoid another stoppage loss, so we should expect his technical version to remain present. Unfortunately, Ankalaev is a master technician, and a three-round technical contest will probably favor him.
The UFC pricing with our top-rated sportsbooks places Ankalaev as the betting favorite, and rightfully so. However, as the juice is too much to sip, backing this fight to go the distance feels like the next best option.
Both fighters are very capable of finishing the fight. Still, Ankalaev’s durability and Rakic’s awareness of avoiding back-to-back stoppage losses will draw out a technical exchange, and this point-fighting battle will take us directly to the judge’s scorecards.
UFC Pick: Ankalaev/Rakic Fight Goes the Distance (-165) [1.65u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev
UFC 308 Middleweight Main Card Bout
Robert Whittaker
After a decade-plus of competing amongst the elite of the UFC’s middleweight division, a successful title run and countless memorable moments in MMA history, you cannot help but respect Robert Whittaker. Although we speak of him as if his career is reaching an end, “Bobby Knuckles” is only 33. After he flatlined an undefeated Russian within two minutes last time out, I wouldn’t say it’s time to start doubting him as an elite 185er yet.
- Whittaker Pro MMA Record: 26-7-0
- Whittaker KOs: 10
- Whittaker Submissions: 5
Khamzat Chimaev
Poor Khamzat; it feels as if the world has forgotten about the man who was once tipped as the next two-division champion (welterweight-middleweight). Fortunately, he returns this weekend to remind us who he is, and with a 13-fight win streak that includes wins over Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, the middleweight era of Chimaev is alive. An imposing performance against Whittaker will throw him into title contention, and perhaps the old hype will be revived.
- Chimaev Pro MMA Record: 13-0-0
- Chimaev KOs: 5
- Chimaev Submissions: 6
Whittaker vs. Chimaev: Fight Tape Analysis
There’s been a huge question mark around Chimaev’s cardio after the Usman and Burns contests. However, he won both of those bouts, and with a clear wrestling upside against a striker in Whittaker, should we really expect to see those same deficiencies surface?
We must also consider the illnesses Chimaev has dealt with. The man has nearly died on two occasions, and his team has clearly stated that he returned too soon. Now, with a full fight camp and a level of wrestling that most opponents can’t handle, he might just be primed to put on the performance of a lifetime against “The Reaper,” whose bottom game has been exposed in the past (Dricus Du Plessis).
For Whittaker, it’s no secret that he’ll want to keep this fight standing. Should the worries regarding Chimaev’s cardio show up, the slick kickboxing offense the Aussie owns will be a huge problem. This isn’t to say Chimaev cannot strike; he certainly can, but if fatigue kicks in, the former champ will be live to cause an upset and potentially become the first person to finish Chimaev inside the distance.
UFC 308 Main Card Odds & Prediction
I’m a Chimaev supporter, and I do believe his aggressive nature early in fights, coupled with elite wrestling, is a problem for Whittaker, who’s predominantly fought fellow strikers throughout his career. However, when making a case for the underdog, it points toward cardio, and should “Borz” fade, he might become a punching bag to a very capable “Bobby Knuckles.”
The UFC odds place Chimaev as the betting favorite, and that’s the side I’m on. That said, backing the under 2.5 rounds not only supports the early dominance Chimaev is capable of, but it also covers us should he fade because the dog in Whittaker will be live to find a finish should this scenario arise.
UFC Pick: Whittaker/Chimaev Under 2.5 Rounds (-140) [1.4 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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