The UFC travels to Montreal this weekend, and I’m back to cater to all your UFC betting needs for a Canadian fight card stacked with two championship title bouts!
Let’s waste no more time and get right to business with my most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 315 preliminary card contests.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice, featuring some more UFC picks for the main card.
The Picks
- Malott-Radtke Under 2.5 (-156)
- Barriault-Silva Under 2.5 (-155)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke
UFC 315 Welterweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, May 10, 2025 – 06:30 PM EDT at Centre Bell
Mike Malott
Following a three-fight win streak of bouts that included three straight stoppages, Mike Malott was considered Canada’s next best hope of a consistent top-ranked competitor, and potentially, a future title challenger.
Unfortunately, an aged and tenured Neil Magny halted the hype in early 2024, and despite returning to the win column against Trevin Giles, the negatives of Malott’s skill set seem to be outshining the 4-1 record he’s collected to date.
- Malott Pro Record: 11-2-1
- Malott KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Malott Submission Wins: 6
Charles Radtke
In a similar fashion, and despite having a positive 3-1 UFC record to date, Charles Radtke’s lone knockout loss, thanks to a punishing Carlos Prates knee to the body, is the talking point when discussing his career.
Unlike Malott, however, Radtke didn’t have a significant hype or push from the UFC brass attached to his name. Defeating Mike Malott on hostile territory, though, would undoubtedly put the Chicago native’s name into a brighter spotlight.
- Radtke Pro Record: 10-4
- Radtke KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Radtke Submission Wins: 2
Malott vs. Radtke: Fight Tape Analysis
Malott is a good fighter, but he’s far from elite. His grappling prowess is unquestionably the highlight of his skill set. That said, he does own a few knockout victories, but when evaluating his striking base, output, and potential, it’s far too stiff and repetitive to make a serious impact in the welterweight division.
With Radtke, it’s the striking exchanges where I believe he could hurt Malott, particularly late in the fight, where the Canadian has shown signs of slowing down in the past. Not to mention, Radtke hasn’t surrendered one takedown in the UFC. This statistic certainly favors his path to victory when faced with an opponent whose most notable game plan would be to implement a grappling blueprint.
UFC 315 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Of all the fights at UFC 315, the two mentioned in today’s UFC picks article feel like they present the greatest potential for a stoppage (knockout or submission).
In 9 of Radtke’s 14 pro-MMA bouts, they’ve ended inside the distance, and 2 of his 3 UFC wins were by knockout. Malott has gone the distance in just 1 of his 13 fights to date, including 5 of his 6 UFC appearances that have either ended by submission or KO/TKO.
MMA math isn’t the answer, but we have two potent finishers looking to stop the fight with opposing game plans and a history of avoiding the judges. Considering the UFC odds put the under 2½ rounds at -156, it feels like a no-brainer wager to place.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 (-156) [1.56u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Bruno Silva
UFC 315 Middleweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, May 10, 2025 – 06:30 PM EDT at Centre Bell
Marc-Andre Barriault
Are we looking at a winner leaves town bout?
With a three-fight losing streak and a 5-8 UFC record overall, Marc-Andre Barriault hasn’t enjoyed most of his octagon outings to date. Fortunately, he’s matched with a fellow losing streak, as he’ll be tested with Bruno Silva’s four-fight losing skid.
- Barriault Pro Record: 16-9
- Barriault KO/TKO Wins: 10
- Barriault Submission Wins: 1
Bruno Silva
Surprisingly, the UFC brass has allowed either fighter to remain on the roster, considering their downtrends in trajectory. Worse still, this could very well be the final walk for one of these men, especially if the fight ends in a brutal fashion, something that we’ve seen happen in fights involving these men more often than not.
- Silva Pro Record: 23-12
- Silva KO/TKO Wins: 20
- Silva Submission Wins: 0
Barriault vs. Silva: Fight Tape Analysis
Piggybacking from our previous breakdown, a knockout or submission almost feels inevitable here. For Barriault, 50% of his UFC losses were inside the distance, and as he returns from back-to-back knockout defeats, we know his durability is stamped with a huge red flag.
Contrastingly, Silva hasn’t been a victim of such defeats, but his head has been completely out of the game for some time. One counterargument makes for a good case, though, as he’s been involved in 6 finishes from 10 UFC bouts, and has a whooping 20 knockouts to his name.
I don’t expect wrestling or grappling to get involved here, and with that, MAB will always be live to get knocked out. And, I know Silva has been durable to date, but MAB’s power was also why Julian Marquez suffered his first-ever knockout loss.
UFC 315 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
With two heavy-hitting brutes, whom I expect to slug it out on the feet in every round, the knockout potential in this contest is heightened. We also have the potential of zero confidence from one of these fighters, or, conversely, the determination to make a statement and keep their job.
Give me the under 2½ rounds, as the UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks offers reasonable odds when considering the finishing history involved.
UFC Picks: Under 2.5 (-155) [1.55u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
