The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back on the road following a British extravaganza at UFC 304, as the beautiful Abu Dhabi will play host to this weekend’s octagon festivities.
Shara Magomedov, Michal Oleksiejczuk, Elves Brener and Joel Alvarez are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Abu Dhabi main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Magomedov/Oleksiejczuk Under 2.5 Rounds (-180)
- Alvarez/Brener Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
UFC Abu Dhabi Middleweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, August 03, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Etihad Arena
Shara Magomedov
With a mere two UFC appearances to his name, albeit back-to-back successes, Shara Magomedov enters a co-main event position in Abu Dhabi, and it would seem the UFC is fast-tracking the popular Russian through the rankings.
‘Shara Bullet’ has cruised to victory in both of his UFC bouts, though. He’s made it known that a striking offensive is his favored weapon, and most recently, he sent Antonio Trocoli to the shadow realm via KO/TKO.
- Magomedov Pro MMA Record: 13-0-0
- Magomedov KOs: 11
- Magomedov Submissions: 0
Michal Oleksiejczuk
With 14 UFC bouts to date, Poland’s Michal Oleksiejczuk has reached veteran status before reaching the age of 30. The 29-year-old, however, has left a lot to be desired from his octagon appearances thus far, and he’ll return to the cage having lost 3 of his previous 4 fights.
- Oleksiejczuk Pro MMA Record: 19-8-0
- Oleksiejczuk KOs: 14
- Oleksiejczuk Submissions: 1
Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk: Fight Tape Analysis
All signs point towards another Shara win. He’s remarkably fast for a middleweight, and while the red flags wave around his grappling potential, Michal isn’t the opponent who’ll test this Russian prospect.
Expect a kickboxing duel this weekend, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the underdog found some success. With experience versus a significantly higher level of competition, he might take advantage of Shara’s lack of elite-level showings, although he isn’t exactly deserving of the ‘elite’ title himself.
Either way, violence is pretty much guaranteed when Michal is scheduled to fight. Whether his power reigns supreme or he’s getting clipped, going this distance just hasn’t been in his nature, and versus another proven finisher, expecting this bout to reach the judge’s scorecards is a reach.
UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks places Shara Magomedov as a significant betting favorite, but I’m not interested in laying juice with an inexperienced fighter. Instead, we’ll look toward the total and bank on violence.
As usual, Michal Oleksiejczuk will aim for his opponent’s head. If this fails, Shara will find the kill shot. We’re going to witness a fraud check and early knockout from Michal, or the UFC’s attempt at giving Shara the best chance of victory will shine as he continues to add more disgrace to Michal’s already ugly record of losing inside the distance.
Oleksiejczuk has gone the distance in just 2 of his 14 UFC bouts to date, and five of his last six fights ended (win or lose) in the first round. Shara finished his last fight via KO/TKO, and he’s seen the judges scorecards in just 2 of his 13 pro bouts to date.
We have two fighters with questionable defenses and several red flags who have historically avoided going the distance. This combination is the perfect recipe for this total going under, and a price of -180 on this expectation isn’t bad at all.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-180) [1.8u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brenner
UFC Abu Dhabi Lightweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, August 03, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Etihad Arena
Joel Alvarez
Spain’s Joel Alvarez was tipped as a top contender of the future when he initially burst onto the UFC scene with a 4-1 record in his first five bouts. Unfortunately, activity has plagued him, and a beatdown at the hands of Arman Tsarukyan didn’t help. However, if there’s one thing we can rely on, it’s an entertaining fight for as long as it lasts.
- Alvarez Pro MMA Record: 20-3-0
- Alvarez KOs: 3
- Alvarez Submissions: 17
Elves Brenner
Brazilian newcomer Elves Brenner silenced the doubters in back-to-back fights last year. As a +400 underdog or bigger, the Chute Boxe product defied the odds and instantly made a name for himself in the octagon.
Myktybek Orolbai stunted his unblemished record last time out, but at just 26, don’t be surprised to see new layers added to his skill set from fight to fight, and Saturday’s main card position could be the perfect bounce-back spot.
- Brenner Pro MMA Record: 16-4-0
- Brenner KOs: 3
- Brenner Submissions: 11
Alvarez vs. Brenner: Fight Tape Analysis
Brutality guaranteed. That’s it, that’s the message.
The tape study between Brenner and Alvarez will make it difficult to find a boring fight because these two savages leave it all in the octagon, win or lose. Notably, they’re both lovers of BJJ and have collectively obtained 28 submission wins throughout their respective careers. What’s crazy is that the Spaniard has never attempted a takedown throughout his UFC tenure.
Joel Alvarez loves his hands, despite the lack of KO/TKO victories, and this is evident when watching him brutalize an experienced vet in Thiago Moises via elbows and uppercuts. It also helps that he’s a 6’3” lightweight, as he towers above 99% of his opponents.
Alvarez has submissions, and those long limbs are an advantage. Submissions are also a huge factor for Elves, who’s thrived as an underdog and in the later rounds of his past contests. Although he’ll be physically disadvantaged come fight night, we know for a fact that Brenner cannot be overlooked.
UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have again placed Brener in the underdog position! That said, it’s hard to disagree when considering that Alvarez should have the striking and size advantage and the BJJ threat, which is forever present.
Fight of the night, anyone? I anticipate an absolute barn burner between these entertaining finishers, but more importantly, brutality is guaranteed!
Fourteen of Brener’s pro-MMA bouts have ended via KO/TKO or submission, and Alvarezm, the epitome of violence, has gone to the judge’s scorecards in just 1 of his 23 pro bouts to date.
Two potent submission artists with the power and capability of finishing the fight at any time… give me the under!
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-140) [1.4u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
