The UFC returns to New Jersey this Saturday, and the promotion is gearing up to label a new #1 contender for the women’s flyweight championship when top-ranked prospects Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot headline the event.
In the co-main event of the evening, welterweight veteran Vicente Luque welcomes heavy-hitting Joaquin Buckley into the octagon in a bout guaranteed to deliver fireworks.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Atlantic City main and co-main event.
Picks SummaryÂ
- Luque-Buckley Under 2 ½ Rounds (-155)
- Blanchfield-Fiorot Over 3 ½ Rounds (–165)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley
UFC Atlantic City Welterweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, March 30, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Boardwalk Hall
Vicente Luque
Behind a career filled with knockout and submission finishes, Vicente Luque, aged just 32, has impressively fought in twenty UFC bouts to date and has rightfully earned his position as a continuous top-ranked welterweight, and a household favorite, following eight years of service for the promotion.
- Luque Pro MMA Record: 22-9-1
- Luque KOs: 11
- Luque Submissions: 8
Joaquin Buckley
Most known for one of the greatest UFC knockouts of all time (See Buckley vs. Kasanganay), Joaquin Buckley hasn’t yet reached his true potential. Still, since that night when he delivered a highlight reel jumping spinning back kick, the Missouri native has won six of nine bouts, and now hopes a convincing win over Luque can position him further up the ladder to becoming a legitimate contender.
- Buckley Pro MMA Record: 17-6-0
- Buckley KOs: 12
- Buckley Submissions: 0
Luque vs. Buckley: Fight Tape Analysis
Behind a tightknit muay thai kickboxing style, Luque has the power to put his opponent’s lights out and a vicious nature where he’ll often hunt for a finish whenever the opportunity presents itself. Moreover, should a contest hit the ground, he owns a respectable submission game, which has seen him collect 33% of his UFC wins by tapping the opposition.
Buckley’s unique footwork and almighty power have assisted him with twelve knockout victories during his pro career. In addition, the man can wrestle, and with one of the best physiques at 170, alongside a blast double from hell, it would take a skilled defensive wrestler to prevent him from finding a takedown if needed.
UFC Atlantic City Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks has split Luque and Buckley on the moneyline, and in all honesty, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. We have a technically sound striker with BJJ credentials against a power puncher who can wrestle.
I’m torn on picking a side, but the under 2 ½ rounds at -155 is an interesting price. Luque is hittable, which doesn’t bode well when faced with Buckley’s power; simultaneously, the Brazilian can also crack, and his BJJ is always a threat.
With that said, backing this fight to end inside the distance is a viable alternative to picking an outright winner. We’re also presented with some interesting statistics; Luque has gone the distance in just 6 of his 20 UFC bouts, while 8 of Buckley’s 11 UFC contests have finished via KO/TKO.
UFC Pick: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-155) [1.55u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot
UFC Atlantic City Women’s Flyweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, March 30, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Boardwalk Hall
Erin Blanchfield
Aged just 24 years old, New York native Erin Blanchfield won’t be far from home this weekend, and she’s notably wasted no time in becoming a top contender despite her young age. Since her UFC debut in 2021, she’s fought and dominated six opponents, including former champion Jessica Andrade and a top-ranked rival, Talia Santos.
- Blanchfield Pro MMA Record: 12-1-0
- Blanchfield KOs: 2
- Blanchfield Submissions: 4
Manon Fiorot
France’s Manon Fiorot could arguably be the most technically sound striker in women’s MMA. Moreover, this veteran striking specialist has an almost identical UFC career to her weekend opponent. She debuted in 2021 and collected six dominant victories to position herself as a current top contender.
- Fiorot Pro MMA Record: 11-1-0
- Fiorot KOs: 6
- Fiorot Submissions: 0
Blanchfield vs. Fiorot: Fight Tape Analysis
Despite the near-identical paths to the top five rankings of the women’s flyweight division, bookmakers favor Blanchfield to come out on top. The New Yorker, while she can stand and bang with the best of them, is expected to wrestle her way to victory now that she’s faced with an incredibly talented striker.
However, in a 25-minute contest, finding takedowns and keeping an energetic Fiorot grounded could be challenging. On record, Fiorot has been taken down just once, and even then, she returned to her feet with minimal effort.
With two of the best flyweight prospects in professional MMA, picking a side is no easy task, but there is one aspect we can rely on the impressive durability these two ladies have displayed.
UFC Atlantic City Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Blanchfield as the betting favorite, but we’re siding with toughness in this weekend’s main event.
Whoever’s game plan goes as planned, it’s difficult to envision either woman finding a finish. The probability of a KO/TKO or a submission happening is undoubtedly higher in the later stages (late round four or five), and that’s why we can snap some noteworthy value in the over 3 ½ rounds.
Neither Fiorot nor Blanchfield have been stopped inside the distance during their careers, and in their combined 12-0 UFC record, seven of those bouts went to the judge’s scorecards.
UFC Pick: Over 3 ½ Rounds (-165) [1.65u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
