The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns from its one-week hiatus, and the beautiful state of Colorado, where it all began at UFC 1 back in 1993, will play host to this weekend’s octagon festivities.
Drew Dober, Jean Silva, Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Muslim Salikhov are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs at top sportsbooks.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into my favorite UFC Denver main card analysis and predictions. And be sure to check out more UFC picks on our YouTube channel.
Picks Summary
- Santiago Ponzinibbio ML (-185) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Drew Dober ML (-110) at Bet365
Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva
UFC Denver Lightweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, July 13, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Drew Dober
He returns to the cage following a unanimous decision loss to Renato Moicano earlier this year, and the recency bias is real, as the UFC veteran who’s competed in 23 promotional bouts to date is sitting at a pick’em betting line versus an untested newcomer.
- Dober Pro MMA Record: 27-13-0
- Dober KOs: 11
- Dober Submissions: 9
Jean Silva
The Brazilian steps in on short notice after beating the brakes off Charles Jourdain just two weeks ago. Respect the man for the quick turnaround, and he notably walked through a veteran in Jourdain, but with little time to prepare and a move up in weight classes, can the two-fight UFC experience and punching power of “Lord Assassin” translate to the 155-pound division?
- Silva Pro MMA Record: 13-2-0
- Silva KOs: 10
- Silva Submissions: 2
Dober vs. Silva: Fight Tape Analysis
Dober is a savage in the octagon and his punching power has been a primary factor in creating this monster. He’s a well-versed martial artist, but his obvious struggles in the grappling department won’t likely be tested come Saturday, as the stylistic matchup should allow him to let his hands loose.
Silva, much like Dober, is a powerhouse in the striking department. With a combined 21 knockouts between them, we should expect fireworks. That said, Silva hasn’t been matched with somebody who holds the power Dober does; he’s a natural featherweight competitor jumping weight classes, and with a lack of experience as the cherry on top, it’s difficult to look beyond the -110 price tag opposed to him.
I’m unsure why certain critics question Dober’s durability because he suffered a KO/TKO loss to Matt Frevola. Outside of this, the man’s durability has been insane! And when these two begin trading blows, give me the natural lightweight with one-punch knockout power versus the fighter who requires punches in bunches to collect his stoppage wins.
UFC Denver Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have split the moneyline price down the middle, and as previously mentioned, most variables favor Dober heading into this bout.
Whether a knockout shot surfaces or not, Dober will land the more damaging shots and ultimately walk out of Denver victorious after beating the smaller, less physical, inexperienced foe.
UFC Pick: Dober ML (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
UFC Denver Welterweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, July 13, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Santiago Ponzinibbio
The Argentinian was on an absolute tear between 2013 and 2018, but after a three-year absence, the man who was once tipped as a title challenger just never looked the same again. Ponz is now 2-4 since 2021; father time is creeping up. However, styles make fights, and he’s still a skilled and powerful striker who’ll be fighting an even older opponent this Saturday night.
- Ponzinibbio Pro MMA Record: 29-7-0
- Ponzinibbio KOs: 16
- Ponzinibbio Submissions: 6
Muslim Salikhov
He has rarely failed to entertain us during his seven-year UFC stint. Salikhov is a dynamic striker who previously collected a five-fight win streak, but inactivity throughout those years has plagued his growth.
Now, aged 40, it’s hard to look past his decline. With three of his previous four fights resulting in defeat, two of which came by KO/TKO, it would seem his durability and potential are slowly fading, and we shouldn’t expect to see him on the roster for much longer.
- Salikhov Pro MMA Record: 19-5-0
- Salikhov KOs: 12
- Salikhov Submissions: 3
Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov: Fight Tape Analysis
Three or four years ago, I wouldn’t have hesitated to back Salikhov at +170. He’s more talented than Ponz skill-for-skill, and in the striking realm, his combinations and awkward style undoubtedly outweigh his opponent’s.
However, this isn’t 2019. We have two aging welterweights, but one (Ponz) is significantly closer to his prime and has arguably lost to much stiffer competition. At the same time, the other has wilted to the likes of Randy Brown, who isn’t known for his punching power.
Say what you will about Ponz, but the man is strong, and his punching power can be problematic. In addition, cardio has been a major concern for Salikhov, so outside of round-one knockout, something he hasn’t achieved in five years, I don’t envision this contest going well for him.
UFC Denver Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC prices have placed Ponzinibbio as the betting favorite, and rightfully so. Prop bettors should hit the KO/TKO for a better price, but I’m happy taking the reasonable -185 moneyline odds on the Argentinian.
Salikhov may have his moments because Ponz is also beyond his prime. Still, when all is said and done, the durability and cardio of the Russian will fail him again versus the bigger, stronger, slightly younger, and more trustworthy fighter.
UFC Pick: Ponzinibbio ML (-185) [1.85u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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