The UFC arrives in Mexico City this Saturday night, and we could witness a Fight of the Night contender when a former flyweight champion in Brandon Moreno and the most recent title challenger, Brandon Royval, trade blows in the main event.
Mexico’s favorite kickboxing wunderkind, Yair Rodriguez, meets the formidable BJJ skills of Brian Ortega in the co-main event and I’m here to assist your UFC betting needs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Mexico City main and co-main events.
Picks Summary
- Moreno-Royval Under 4½ Rounds (-135)Â
- Rodriguez-Ortega Under 4½ Rounds (-180)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval 2
UFC Mexico City Flyweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, February 24, 2024 – 11:59 PM ET at Arena CDMX
Brandon Moreno
A 9-4-2 UFC record doesn’t do Brandon Moreno justice, but look at the bigger picture, and you’ll understand why he’s one of the flyweight greats.
Not only is he a two-time flyweight champ, but he handed Deiveson Figueiredo his first pro-MMA loss by stoppage (twice!). During his three most recent wins, all of them were obtained by stoppage, which is ultra impressive when these contests have been against the very top-ranked opponents of the division.
- Moreno Pro MMA Record: 21-7-2
- Moreno KOs: 5
- Moreno Submissions: 11
Brandon Royval
Brandon Royval, despite losing his flyweight title opportunity versus Alexandre Pantoja last time out, is no slouch and is all too familiar with the skills of his weekend opponent.
Royval, 30, was stopped via ground & pound in his first meeting with Moreno, but a shoulder injury left him incapable of competing to the best of his abilities. Prior to this, he was undoubtedly holding his own in the cage, and a win on Saturday would boost him straight back into title contention.
- Royval Pro MMA Record: 15-7-0
- Royval KOs: 4
- Royval Submissions: 9
Moreno vs. Royval: Fight Tape Analysis
The southpaw versus orthodox striking exchanges were relatively even in the first contest, but it’s been close to three years and Moreno’s confidence has certainly reached its prime since this bout.
The Mexican fighter will have an arena full of supporting fans, a full camp, a wrestling advantage and significantly more five-round experience favoring him. Not to mention, this fight is at elevation, where gas tanks are known to fail.
Royval took this fight on short notice to replace Amir Albazi; while commendable, it might be challenging to overcome the former champ under these circumstances.
However, he did show excellent kicks from the outside last time out; the question is whether or not his usual style of spamming submissions and scrambling positions will surface this weekend.
UFC Mexico City Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks believe Moreno is the rightful favorite, and while I agree, I’m not interested in playing 2.9u to win 1u at the time of writing.
Instead, take this fight to finish before the judges intervene. Royval has the skills to end anybody in the division while also putting himself in dangerous situations, with 6 of his 8 UFC bouts ending inside the distance.
Moreno has evolved into a dangerous finisher, and considering the likelihood of elevation levels damaging Royval in the later rounds, I can envision a submission or TKO/KO finish at the midway point of this contest.
UFC Pick: Under 4½ Rounds (-135) [1.35u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega
UFC Mexico City Featherweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, February 24, 2024 – 11:50 PM ET at Arena CDMX
Yair Rodriguez
Seeking credit after a 2022 win over Brian Ortega, Yair Rodriguez returns to the octagon in front of his home nation following a featherweight title opportunity defeat to Volkanovski last summer.
Behind 10 wins as a UFC competitor, Yair has delivered a must-see striking style, including four knockouts thus far. Still, a shoulder injury to Ortega handed him an unwarranted victory, which he’s now looking to correct in front of a Mexican crowd.
- Rodriguez Pro MMA Record: 18-4-0
- Rodriguez KOs: 7
- Rodriguez Submissions: 5
Brian Ortega
Injuries and inactivity have plagued Ortega’s career in recent years. He once rode a six-fight win streak right into the featherweight top rankings, but with only four appearances since 2018 and just two since 2021, he’ll be hoping that medical misfortunes are long behind him.
Ortega’s absence since July 2022 is obviously a factor, but it must be stated that the shoulder injury occurred while he was on top of Rodriguez, so it’s no surprise that he’s confident in running this one back.
- Ortega Pro MMA Record: 15-3-0
- Ortega KOs: 3
- Ortega Submissions: 7
Rodriguez vs. Ortega: Fight Tape Analysis
Judging a fighter such as Ortega, who’s been consistently inactive for four years, is difficult. We know he’s a world-class jiu-jitsu practitioner and no stranger to throwing down on the feet. Still, cardio and durability will always be questioned, as inactivity can often be the downfall of many pro-MMA competitors.
Rodriguez has serviceable BJJ, but he’s no match for Ortega, and this is why he’ll look to keep this fight standing at all costs. He was incredibly fortunate to receive a win on his record from the first meeting between these two and there’s a slim chance the same luck will strike twice.
UFC Mexico City Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Rodriguez as a slight betting favorite, and this was expected because we don’t know where Brian Ortega is at during this stage of his career.
With that said, this ML betting position feels like a dog or pass situation, and it’s a 50/50 coin flip on which fighters will see their preferred style play out. So, instead, we can rely on another consistent… durability or a lack thereof.
Ortega has seen the judges’ scorecards in just 2 of his 11 UFC bouts, while Rodriguez’s three most recent UFC contests ended in three rounds or less.
We have a proven KO artist versus a submission specialist. With five rounds scheduled alongside the draining nature of fighting at elevation, I don’t expect to see this one go beyond twenty minutes on the clock.
UFC Pick: Under 4½ Rounds (-180) [1.8u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
