The UFC returns to Vegas this Saturday, and we’ll witness a highly anticipated rematch in the main event as former flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko attempts to reclaim the gold from Mexico’s Alexa Grasso.
Top-ranked bruisers Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland and Jack Della Maddalena exchange leather in the co-main event, both vying for supremacy of welterweight rankings.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Noche main and co-main event.
Top UFC Noche Picks
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
UFC Noche Women’s Flyweight Championship Bout
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at the T-Mobile Arena
Topping the bill for UFC’s tribute to Mexico’s independence is the newly crowned flyweight queen Alexa Grasso (16-3-0 pro-MMA), who shocked the world as a +575 underdog and handed “The Bullet” her first loss inside the distance.
Replicating such a feat won’t be easy, but I additionally believe it won’t be necessary. Grasso owns the cardio and boxing credentials to keep this fight smart, and a path to victory via the judges’ scorecards is a highly obtainable outcome.
We can’t deny that Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-0) is one of the greatest women’s mixed martial artists to ever step inside the octagon. As a flyweight competitor, she owns the record for most title defenses and stoppages, but aged 35, the new generation of fighters has been slowly exposing her weaknesses.
Grasso vs. Shevchenko: Fight Tape Analysis
Shevchenko was successful against Grasso when utilizing an offensive wrestling game plan in rounds one and two of their first championship bout. But surprisingly, to some, round one displayed an offensive striking advantage that was all Grasso.
A willingness to tie up and grapple is undoubtedly a viable path to victory for Shevchenko, but for the first time in her career, we’ve started to see her cardio falter in the later rounds. She’s smart enough to recognize this, and I expect to see a level of hesitancy in an attempt to persevere her gas tank.
Grasso isn’t a known finisher, making her submission victory over Shevchenko even more shocking last time. And again, in her first title defense, intelligence and caution should be a primary concern when faced with such a dangerous finisher.
UFC Noche Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Shevchenko as the betting favorite, but unlike the -900 odds in her first bout with Grasso, the public is being baited into a -170, and I’m not confident she’s worth the risk.
However, there isn’t enough evidence to suggest Shevchenko is completely on her way out. After all, she was winning the previous bout – two rounds to one – before being submitted.
I respect the current price of -125 on this fight going all five rounds. Shevchenko has gone the distance in 60% of her UFC bouts, and the judges have also decided 8 of Grasso’s 11 UFC contests.
Both women have excellent durability and neither has never been stopped via KO/TKO. Equally, they’ve only been stopped by submission on two occasions (one each).
UFC Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (-125) [1.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena
UFC Noche Welterweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at the T-Mobile Arena
Kevin Holland (25-9-0) has received a lot of slack over the years, but name another fighter that’s accepted 18 fights over three years; I’ll wait…
The man loves to fight, and he does it pretty damn well. 75% of his UFC victories were via KO/TKO or submission, and win or lose, he’s going to FIGHT for your money.
There’s been a huge hype around Australia’s Jack Della Maddalena (15-2-0), but honestly, I’m not sold. Sure, he’s 5-0 as a UFC competitor and an excellent striker with stopping ability. But the red flags are flying high after a split-decision win as a -575 last time out.
Holland vs. Maddalena: Fight Tape Analysis
Maddalena loves to strike, and he’s had great success versus respectable strikers such as Ange Loosa. However, he hasn’t faced a dangerous striker like Holland, a fighter that’ll own a significant reach advantage and a jiu-jitsu game that can cause problems in all areas of the cage.
The betting line is close because it’s a difficult outcome to predict. But if you’re giving me the more experienced, larger, diverse, and dangerous fighter at plus-money, it’s a no-brainer.
UFC Noche Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC prices at OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks have placed Maddalena as the slight betting favorite, but for a fight that the Australian will need to stay on the feet for success, I like Holland with a grappling offense to fall back on should he struggle to utilize a striking plan at distance.
UFC Pick: Kevin Holland ML (+125) [1u returns 1u.25 profit] at Bet365
