The UFC travels to the Jiu-Jitsu capital of the world this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a fight card stacked with Brazilian talent.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Sao Paulo preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Victor Hugo Silva ML (+200)Â
- Petrino ML (-210)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Daniel Marcos vs. Victor Hugo Silva
UFC Sao Paulo Bantamweight Bout
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Ibirapuera Arena
Finding talent from Brazil has never been a difficult task for the UFC. Still, the 13-fight win streak of Victor Hugo Silva (24-4-0 pro-MMA) will be tested this weekend, as he’ll face an undefeated fighter who’s already collected two straight victories for the promotion.
Silva is a relentless bantamweight competitor, and although the 135lb weight class isn’t known for a high percentage of stoppage wins, the Brazilian has notably finished 8 of his last 13 opponents via KO/TKO or submission.
Daniel Marcos (15-0-0), despite owning a 15-0 undefeated record, was fortunate to walk away with a split decision victory over Davey Grant last time out. This doesn’t take anything from his skillset because he’s incredibly talented, but honestly, there will be a moment to fade his hype, which could be this weekend in Sao Paulo.
Marcos vs. Silva: Fight Tape Analysis
Marcos, the Peruvian standout, must travel to hostile territory in Brazil and face a company debutant who will see a huge opportunity to make a name from an unbeaten streak.
Skillset-wise, Marcos is technically sound in both grappling and striking offenses. There’s a reason why he’s the betting favorite in Sao Paulo, but I don’t appreciate his relaxed approach in the octagon and his ability to handle pressure.
Silva has never-ending cardio, which is more impressive when looking at the non-stop pressure he puts on his opponents. Sure, he has some questionable moments in his fight IQ and decision-making. Still, even in his mistakes, he’ll often recorrect his positioning, and more importantly, Silva can scrap his way into advantageous grappling positions.
With huge bombs on the feet, a pressure-based style, and serious strength for a bantamweight, I believe we have a live dog in Silva. Not to mention, he’s fighting in front of a Brazilian crowd.
UFC Sao Paulo Preliminary Bout Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has placed Marcos as a large betting favorite, and I understand, but I’m afraid I have to disagree.
Yes, he’s 15-0, but Marcos has displayed too many flaws in pressured situations, and Silva owns the romantic style to hand the Peruvian his first-ever loss.
UFC Pick: Victor Hugo Silva ML (+200) [1u returns 2u profit] at Bet365
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Vitor Petrino
UFC Sao Paulo Light Heavyweight Bout
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 07:25 PM ET at Ibirapuera Arena
The undefeated Vitor Petrino (9-0-0 pro-MMA) returns home for the first time since joining the UFC. He owns a perfect 2-0 UFC record and reached the light heavyweight roster after a vicious TKO stoppage on Dana White’s Contender Series.
Standing across from Petrino will be Modestas Bukauskas (15-5-0), a Lithuanian native fighting out of England who was previously cut from the UFC following a 3-fight losing streak. However, his path back to the promotion took just one year, and he’s now 2-0 as a UFC competitor since returning earlier this year.
Petrino vs. Bukauskas: Fight Tape Analysis
Bukauskas is predominantly a technical striker and a well-rounded martial artist, but the biggest downside to his offense would be a lack of activity. There have been one-two-many fights where we’ve watched him look lost, and while he’s taken back-to-back unanimous decisions this year, it’s difficult to put faith in him as he climbs the rankings to face more challenger opponents.
Speaking of greater challenges, I wouldn’t want to fade Vitor Petrino, especially in Brazil. He’s a menace in the striking realm with power, pull-back counters, and vicious power, and a respectful ground game nicely accompanies this.
UFC Sao Paulo Preliminary Bout Odds & Prediction
The current UFC odds have positioned Petrino as a -210 moneyline favorite, and I’m in agreement with the price.
Petrino can be lethargic in his approach, but nothing compared to Bukauskas in this regard. We’re going to see the Brazilian force a fistfight, and I believe his power and technical striking skills will overpower and put his opponent out inside the first two rounds.
Petrino Moneyline: Supporting Facts
- Petrino is undefeated as an MMA professional
- Bukauskas is 3-3 as a UFC competitor
- Petrino has finished 7 of his 9 pro wins via KO/TKO or submission
UFC Pick: Vitor Petrino ML (-210) [2.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
