The 2024 UFC schedule visits the Show-Me-State this weekend, and the headline bout will showcase two top-15 heavyweights, Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento, who’ll be looking to deem one another unconscious.
However, in terms of betting value, we’ve spotted some alternative main card contests that present intriguing UFC odds.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into our breakdown and analysis, including the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC St. Louis main card.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel, where our expert covered the Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson and Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento bouts.
Picks Summary
- Joaquin Buckley ML (-138)
- Menifield/Ulberg Over 1.5 Rounds (-145)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
UFC St. Louis Welterweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, May 11, 2024 – 09:05 PM ET at Enterprise Center
Joaquin Buckley
Ask, and sometimes, you shall receive, a line that best describes Joaquin Buckley’s quick turnaround following an ultra-impressive round two KO/TKO over Vicente Luque.
Just 38 days ago, Buckley impressed the masses when he overcame a dangerous Brazilian veteran in Luque and instantly pleaded with Dana White to place him on his hometown card at UFC St. Louis.
- Buckley Pro MMA Record: 18-6-0
- Buckley KOs: 13
- Buckley Submissions: 0
Nursulton Ruziboev
While Buckley’s three-fight win streak is noteworthy momentum, he shouldn’t enter the octagon with overconfidence against Nursulton Ruziboev.
The Uzbekistan native has remained unblemished (2-0) since joining the UFC last July, and both of his opponents, Brunno Ferreira and Sedriques Dumas, were dispatched via first-round TKO stoppages.
- Ruziboev Pro MMA Record: 34-8-2
- Ruziboev KOs: 12
- Ruziboev Submissions: 20
Buckley vs. Ruziboev: Fight Tape Analysis
When combining his regional and UFC records, Ruziboev is riding a 10-fight win streak with a 100% finish rate and hasn’t lost a pro bout since 2019. Aged 30, this prospect has a high ceiling in the welterweight division, but he’s yet to prove himself against a true elite competitor like Buckley.
The momentum behind Buckley’s current run holds significantly more weight than his opponent despite being a streak with seven fewer wins. Great wrestling, slick boxing offenses behind smooth footwork, excellent strikes from unique angles, damaging body shots and, of course, a taekwondo base that assists him in attacking with blistering kicks.
Ruziboev is larger and taller, as the size discrepancy is evident. However, we can’t ignore Buckley’s physicality, which should be enough to keep the Uzbek from implementing any grappling game plan.
UFC St. Louis Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top-rated sportsbooks has placed Buckley as a -138 favorite, and based on high-level experience alone, it’s difficult not to see value in this price.
I don’t believe Ruziboev has the wrestling chops to outclass Buckley in this area. In a potential three-round kickboxing bout, the speed, power and diverse shot selection of the St. Louis-born fighter will reign supreme against Ruziboev, who’s yet to prove himself against respectable competition beyond the first round.
UFC Pick: Joaquin Buckley ML (-138) [1.33u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg
UFC St. Louis Light Heavyweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, May 11, 2024 – 09:05 PM ET at Enterprise Center
Alonzo Menifield
Behind a five-fight undefeated run and three victories inside the distance, Fortis MMA representative Alonzo Menifield is seemingly finding his groove and has now broken into the top-15 rankings in the light heavyweight weight class.
While he hasn’t faltered late, cardio concerns and damage output across three rounds have always been a concern, and at age 36, can he fix those issues en route to a higher ranking?
- Menifield Pro MMA Record: 15-3-0
- Menifield KOs: 9
- Menifield Submissions: 4
Carlos Ulberg
City Kickboxing standout Carlos Ulberg hopes to emulate the success of his training partner, Israel Adesanya. He similarly has the impressive kickboxing background of Izzy, which is undoubtedly assisting him throughout his early tenure.
Six fights deep into his UFC career, Ulberg has suffered one hiccup but is now riding a 5-fight win streak and a 90% finish rate while showing improvements in his grappling defense fight to fight.
- Ulberg Pro MMA Record: 9-1-0
- Ulberg KOs: 6
- Ulberg Submissions: 1
Menifield vs. Ulberg: Fight Tape Analysis
Ulberg’s punching power is undeniable, but his footwork and cage movement are second to none. His MMA experience is, without question, a red flag when competing against the division’s elite, but fortunately, years of kickboxing competition don’t position him as a complete novice in professional combat.
Menifield is a physical specimen who often bullies his opponents with sheer brute force. However, from all twelve of his UFC bouts to date, durability has been one of his most noteworthy attributes, as a stocky frame and respectable chin have seen him survive some dangerous moments in all but one contest.
UFC St. Louis Main Card Odds & Prediction
Sharp sportsbooks have placed Ulberg as a betting favorite on the moneyline, but a -250 price tag is a bit steep as an outright wager. I do believe his chance of victory is higher, but finding value in this bout steers me towards the total.
Ulberg has won 3 of his previous 4 bouts in round one, but I don’t expect Menifield to be stupid enough to engage in an all-out striking war in the opening round. Anticipate some grappling moments from Menifield early on, as he’ll understand the New Zealander’s greatest path to victory has been early stoppages via kickboxing masterclasses.
Will Ulberg eventually finish the fight? I wouldn’t count him out. However, the total is set at 1.5 rounds, and I have faith in both men’s durability and fight IQ to keep this bout active beyond the seven minutes and 30-second mark.
UFC Pick: Menifield/Ulberg Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) [1.45u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
