The UFC is back home in Sin City this weekend, and I’m back to dissect the betting odds to provide all your betting needs for a Vegas 106 fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from the prelims to the main event.
The time for talk is over; let’s dive right into my most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas preliminary card matchups.
The Picks
- Yadier Del Valle by KO or Submission (+140)
- Thiago Moises ML (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Connor Matthews vs. Yadier Del Valle
UFC Vegas 106 Featherweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 04:00 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Connor Matthews
Since impressing UFC suits on Dana White’s Contender Series, Connor Matthews has faltered under the bright lights, losing back-to-back fights by knockout against a lower level of opposition.
Saturday’s meeting might very well be his last opportunity to secure a new 3-fight contract. Still, at least he’ll have the experience advantage with a UFC debutant lined up as his opponent.
- Matthews Pro Record: 7-3
- Matthews KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Matthews Submission Wins: 5
Yadier Del Valle
Much like his weekend foe, Yadier Del Valle brought his name to light via Dana White’s Contender Series. Unlike Matthews, however, this Cuban slugger has remained undefeated since his amateur MMA debut, with a combined record of 12 straight wins, including seven stoppage wins from those aforementioned victories.
- Del Valle Pro Record: 8-0
- Del Valle KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Del Valle Submission Wins: 2
Matthews vs. Del Valle: Fight Tape Analysis
With the octagon jitters being lowered inside the Apex compared to arena Fight Night events of pay-per-views, Del Valle will be accustomed to Saturday’s setting after collecting DWCS experience. Because of this, I have no worries about him being a debutant, and when it comes down to skill set, I believe he could have the edge here.
Yes, he’s young, and UFC debuts are always risky. However, from what we’ve seen so far, Del Valle shows a level of aggression worth paying attention to. Not only can he grapple, but when striking, he doesn’t let off the gas, and I expect him to be the fighter controlling the center of the octagon. As a result, he’ll have the pleasure of letting his hands loose while also having the potential of taking this fight to the ground to let off offense, where we’ve seen him comfortably finish opponents in the past.
UFC Vegas 106 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Del Valle a heavy betting favorite, which is always a concern. However, Matthews hasn’t given us a reason to believe he’s UFC worthy. Plus, as evidenced in both of his UFC appearances, his durability crumbles once the pressure is put on.
So, backing Del Valle to secure his debut via knockout or submission for +140 is a great price considering the moneyline is so juiced. Vegas expects this one to go the distance, which is surprising after we’ve watched Matthews give up so easily in the UFC thus far.
UFC Pick: Del Valle by KO/TKO or Submission (+140) [1u returns 1.4u profit] at Bet365
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises
UFC Vegas 106 Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 04:00 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Jared Gordon
Unfortunately for Jared Gordon, his claim to fame under the UFC banner is that he performed well against Paddy Pimblett. Outside of this, most casual viewers won’t remember what he’s done in the octagon, and although an 8-6 promotional record isn’t horrible, he’s now winless in 4 of his last 6 bouts.
- Gordon Pro Record: 20-7
- Gordon KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Gordon Submission Wins: 2
Thiago Moises
With an identical UFC record of 8-6 (Insert Spiderman meme), some might believe that Thiago Moises is on the same level as Jared Gordon. Well, let me tell you that isn’t the case. The Brazilian has a much more dangerous resume, and when 4 of his 6 losses have come against top-10-ranked lightweights, it soon becomes a resume that isn’t so comparable!
- Moises Pro Record: 19-8
- Moises KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Moises Submission Wins: 8
Gordon vs. Moises: Fight Tape Analysis
In my opinion, Moises has long been criminally underrated. And here’s a fun fact: he only has 1 defeat on his record versus an opponent that isn’t ranked inside the top 15. Oh, and that fighter is the 24-3 Damir Ismagulov, who no longer competes in the UFC.
Versus a lower level of opposition, Moises always looks like he’s ready to compete against the elite of the division, despite what his record has delivered thus far.
Gordon is a very readable fighter. While his high-guard, forward-walking pressure style can topple the inexperienced, I envision Moises walking through this basic approach with ease.
Should this fight hit the ground, Moises is levels above Gordon, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him wrap up a submission finish. Standing, Moises at range will mix his combinations, include many more kicks, and certainly take the lead at distance by refusing to allow Gordon in the pocket.
UFC Vegas 106 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has split these odds down the middle at -110 on either side. The value speaks for itself, as we have a fighter with more tools, significantly greater experience versus elite foes, and a much higher capability of finishing the fight.
Expect Moises to win this fight wherever it takes place. Gordon is a tough outing, so the finish might not surface, but given the reasonable moneyline price, we don’t have to worry about how this bout concludes.
UFC Pick: Thiago Moises ML (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
