UFC Vegas 75 Best Bets:
The UFC is back in Vegas this Saturday, and we’re gifted with a clash between the middleweight elite as former title challengers Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier headline the MMA festivities.
Before that, the relentless Arman Tsarukyan will welcome Joaquim Silva into the octagon for a co-main banger.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 75 main and co-main event.
UFC Vegas 75 Middleweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, June 17, 2023 – 11:15 PM EDT at UFC Apex, Las Vegas
A professional career that began at the tender age of 19, in conjunction with a UFC tenure that’s reached its seventh year, and Marvin Vettori (19-5-1 pro-MMA) is now a fully-fledged elite level UFC competitor that could argue his prime years haven’t even touched the surface.
With that said, opposite “The Italian Dream,” this weekend will be a formidable power puncher in Cannonier (16-6-0). Despite being 39 years of age, the product of MMA Lab in Phoenix, Arizona, hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.
Vettori vs. Cannonier: Fight Tape Analysis
Vettori has displayed a diverse approach to the octagon since his debut. When a striking game plan doesn’t go to plan, he mixes up an offensive wrestling game plan and utilizes his strengths to mold past fights to where victory can be obtained.
However, Cannonier’s noteworthy takedown defense has stood strong during an eight-year tenure with the UFC, and the Italian won’t likely find this path a viable one until the later rounds.
On the feet, patience and defense have been crucial to Cannonier’s success. On the other hand, Vettori’s pressure and volume have served him well, but he cannot transfer power into his strikes, unlike his weekend opponent.
The sportsbooks closely lined this bout for a good reason, it’s difficult to pick a side, but the most noteworthy attribute for both men is their durability and toughness.
UFC Vegas 75 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have Vettori as the slight favorite, but instead of flipping a coin, it’s worth ignoring a moneyline play altogether.
As previously mentioned, durability has been crucial for both fighters during their career. Vettori has never been stopped inside the distance, and 11 of his 13 UFC bouts have required a judge’s opinion. Cannonier is the knockout threat, but since reaching the top-10 rankings, 4 of his last 5 fights have gone to a decision.
Bet on durability, as the betting value for this fight to go the distance is exemplary. Patience, caution, defense, and robust chins will keep both athletes in this bout until the fifth and final round is complete.
UFC Pick: Fight Goes the Distance/Yes (-170) at Bet365 [1.70u returns 1u profit]
UFC Vegas 75 Lightweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, June 17, 2023 – 10:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex, Las Vegas
There was a moment in 2019 when Arman Tsarukyan (19-3-0) went toe-to-toe with the current UFC lightweight champion and gave him one of the most challenging three rounds of his career at the young age of 23. A lot has changed since then, but the Armenian standout has continued to impress.
Now 27, Tsarukyan is a top-10-ranked lightweight and has displayed an incredible wrestling offensive with dominant victories over some of the division’s best, alongside an ever-evolving striking game.
On Saturday, he’ll face Joaquim Silva (12-3-0), who is no slouch, but it could arguably be the lowest level of competition Tsarukyan has faced in his last four contests.
Tsarukyan vs. Silva: Fight Tape Analysis
There isn’t much need to overanalyze this bout; the -1000 and growing moneyline price on Tsarukyan speaks volumes. He’s better in all facets of the game, and the isolated areas – power strikes & jiu-jitsu – where Silva has shined, will be instantly nullified by the favorite grappling prowess.
The incredibly juiced moneyline does, however, give us a hint of how lopsided this bout will be. The question isn’t when; it’s how? And with two of his last four bouts ended via KO/TKO versus a significantly higher level of opposition, expecting the Armenian to extend his knockout record is a likely outcome.
UFC Vegas 75 Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC prices at OddsTrader have placed Tsarukyan as the biggest betting favorite on the Vegas 75 card, and it’s hard to disagree. The price isn’t playable for long-term bettors, so we’re forced to the prop markets.
Silva has never been submitted during his pro career, and his BJJ defense has been difficult to overcome. However, Tsarukyan’s top control will leave openings for ground and pound, Silva has lost two of his last four bouts via KO/TKO, and a TKO stoppage is exactly how I envision this bout ends.
UFC Pick: Tsarukyan by KO/TKO (-135) at BetMGM [1.35u returns 1u profit]