The UFC is back in Vegas this weekend, and it’s two middleweight strikers topping the evening’s main card as top-ranked slugger Sean Strickland faces an up-and-coming prospect in Abus Magomedov.
Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson also battle in the co-main event, both of whom currently hold an impressive combined pro-MMA record of 43-3-1.
Let’s waste no more time and delve into the most worthwhile betting picks for the UFC Vegas 76 main and co-main event.
Top UFC Vegas 76 Picks
Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov
UFC Vegas 76 Middleweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, July 01, 2023 – 09:15 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Whether it’s pre-planned or short notice, Sean Strickland (26-5-0 pro-MMA) has long been a main event competitor the UFC can count on. A brawling style matched with an outlandish personality has positioned the top-ranked middleweight as a fan favorite, and he’s the appropriate betting favorite heading into this weekend’s UFC Vegas 76 main event.
Abus Magomedov (25-4-1) has oddly been placed in a UFC main event in just his second UFC appearance. He owns a respectable record and did obtain a KO/TKO stoppage in his promotional debut. Still, the KO artist with a wrestling background hasn’t warranted the push he’s currently receiving.
Strickland vs. Magomedov: Fight Tape Analysis
We can’t confirm the politics that have led Magomedov into an almost instant main event position upon his arrival to the UFC, but there is enough fight tape to understand his style. Despite owning a wrestling background – having trained in Dagestan –he’s predominantly a striker.
The Russian fighter representing Germany isn’t the elite offensive wrestler most critics believe he is. Most of his bouts in recent memory have displayed a willingness to trade strikes, as he often hunts for a knockout by delivering a mixture of strikes at range.
On the other hand, Strickland isn’t necessarily known as a KO artist, with just 3 of his 13 UFC victories ending via this method. But he’s unquestionably a fighter that loves the striking aspect of MMA. With forward pressure and consistent volume, few middleweights have handled Strickland’s output, and he notably owns an excellent takedown defense for good measure.
UFC Vegas 76 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has placed Strickland in a favorable betting position, and it’s hard to disagree with this stance.
We simply haven’t seen enough from Magomedov at this level of the sport. He must find an early knockout or employ a wrestling strategy to overcome his opponent. The problem is, should Strickland survive the early head hunt, it’ll be his fight to lose as the better striker of the two.
Solid takedown defense, elite-level UFC experience, and non-stop pressure will see Strickland win the volume game and have his hand raised.
UFC Pick: Sean Strickland ML (-138) [1.38u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson
UFC Vegas 76 Lightweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, July 01, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Since Damir Ismagulov (24-2-0) joined the UFC roster with a 19-1-0 pro-MMA record, he has been highly touted as a potential top-ranked contender in the lightweight division. He’s certainly lived up to the hype, boasting a 5-1 UFC record, and has only suffered defeat to a highly touted prospect in Arman Tsarukyan.
Grant Dawson (19-1-1) has also succeeded at the UFC level. He joined the promotion in 2019 and has since won seven consecutive bouts, with one knockout, four submissions, and two decision victories.
Ismagulov vs. Dawson: Fight Tape Analysis
Finding flaws in an MMA skillset of Ismagulov is no easy task. He’s one of the most well-rounded fighters in the lightweight division, with excellent offensive, defensive striking and grappling. His most noteworthy attribute is his lateral movement on the feet, which gives him great openings and makes it incredibly difficult to catch him flush with power strikes.
Despite owning an unblemished UFC record, Dawson hasn’t faced the highest level of opposition. He loves to rely on wrestling to find success. While he can handle his own in the striking realm, he’ll be slow and unreliable on the feet now that he’s facing a complete martial artist.
UFC Vegas 76 Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The current UFC odds have Ismagulov as the slight betting favorite, but at -110, I see incredible value on the moneyline.
Ismagulov is longer and has the greater striking accolades. His takedown defense is enough to keep this bout standing, and in a toe-to-toe exchange of strikes, there’s no chance Dawson wins this contest.
UFC Pick: Damir Ismagulov ML (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at BetRivers
