The UFC is back home in Las Vegas this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a fight card stacked with unmissable MMA talent.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 80 preliminary card bouts.
- Montana De La Rosa ML (-138) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz ML (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
UFC Vegas 80 Women’s Flyweight Bout
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at UFC Apex
You must feel for Montana De La Rosa (12-8-1 pro-MMA record), who’s opening up the prelim card despite having six years of experience as a UFC competitor. Not to a fault of her own, however. The promotion has fed her to the wolves over the past few years, and she’s still shown signs of greatness even in her losing bouts.
JJ Aldrich (12-6-0 pro-MMA record) is a well-rounded women’s flyweight you can rely on. She’s 4-2 in her previous six bouts, which is commendable, although the upper echelon of this division is too large and powerful for her smaller-than-average frame.
De La Rosa vs. Aldrich: Fight Tape Analysis
Recency bias on paper would have you believe Tatiana Suarez – the most highly touted championship prospect in the weight class – dominated De La Rosa from pillar to post. Sure, it was a guillotine choke loss, but this doesn’t tell the entire story.
Watching De La Rosa compete and match Suarez – up until the choke – was a surprise, and she is often underrated. But we must recognize the level of competition she’s faced, which is a huge reason for an average 5-4 UFC record.
There’s no denying the significant wrestling/grappling advantage for De La Rosa heading into Saturday’s bout. There’s no denying her striking has a lot to be desired, but this won’t play a factor with JJ Aldrich, who, once again, will simply be giving up too much of a size disadvantage to prevent the takedowns and ground control.
UFC Vegas 80 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing at OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks places De La Rosa as a slight betting favorite, and the current line is fair.
JJ Aldrich takes the striking advantage, and she’ll boast the greater fight IQ. Unfortunately, the wrestling offensive of De La Rosa, combined with a size advantage, will be enough to prevent the underdog from scoring points on the feet.
UFC Pick: Montana De La Rosa ML (-138) [1.38u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
UFC Vegas 80 Women’s Strawweight Bout
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 05:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Following a horrid 5-fight losing streak between 2018 and 2021, Karolina Kowalkiewicz (15-7-0 pro-MMA) was on the brink of losing her position on the UFC roster. However, she made a comeback of the ages and proved her doubters wrong with a three-fight win streak and an unblemished record since 2022.
Diana Belbita (15-7-0 pro-MMA record) possesses a huge fan base, Unfortunately, this hasn’t assisted her UFC tenure, as she’s now 2-3 since joining the promotion in 2019 and is now faced with an experience she’s yet to face.
Kowalkiewicz vs. Belbita: Fight Tape Analysis
To her credit, Belbita owns the skillset to match Kowalkiewicz in a stand-up battle, and if this bout were a 15-minute kickboxing bout, she’d boast a 50/50 chance of success.
However, the reality is this is MMA, and with the grappling dominance that Kowalkiewicz has displayed in the past when faced with a level of grappling Belbita owns, there’s only one route I anticipate this contest will go.
There’s a notable 10-year age gap favoring Belbita. Still, the level of opposition Kowalkiewicz has faced is incomparable, and her only losses under the UFC banner have been against an elite group of competition… nothing more and nothing less.
UFC Vegas 80 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The current UFC odds position Kowalkiewicz as the betting favorite, and it’s difficult to challenge this stance.
I expect this contest to be 50/50 on the feet, but as we previously mentioned, this is MMA, and the Polish favorite will dominate in this area, thus making her an excellent wager with a -155 moneyline price.
UFC Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz ML (-155) [1.55u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.