The UFC returns to Vegas this Saturday, and we could witness a coming-out party for the undefeated Brazilian, Vitor Petrino, who’ll resume his mission into the top rankings of the light heavyweight division.
Elsewhere on the main card, another undefeated prospect, Muhammad Mokaev, will attempt to take another step closer to title contention when he tussles with a flyweight veteran in Alex Perez.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 87 main card.
Picks Summary
- Petrino Wins Inside the Distance (-145)
- Mokaev & Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro
UFC Vegas 87 Light Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, March 02, 2024 – 01:30 PM ET at UFC Apex
Vitor Petrino
As one of the newest prospects to the UFC light heavyweight division, Vitor Petrino has impressed us in multiple facets. Three fights in 2023, three wins collected, as a KO/TKO, submission, and decision capped off the newcomer’s year with evidence that he owns the skills to diversify his game plans and achieve success in the future.
- Petrino Pro MMA Record: 10-0-0
- Petrino KOs: 7
- Petrino Submissions: 1
Tyson Pedro
Ten fights into his UFC tenure, Australia’s Tyson Pedro is creeping into veteran territory behind a resume that’s involved one clear constant: violence! Outside of four UFC losses, Pedro has won six fights, all by KO/TKO, has won 3 of his previous 4 fights and, aged 32, is arguably fighting in the prime of his career.
- Pedro Pro MMA Record: 10-4-0
- Pedro KOs: 5
- Pedro Submissions: 5
Petrino vs. Pedro: Fight Tape Analysis
We’re back again with a knockout or bust situation, on the side of Tyson Pedro, that is. The Aussie doesn’t make the analysis complicated; he’s a talented striker with fire in his gloves and has collected six round-one knockouts during his UFC stint.
The problem with Pedro’s style is that a skilled grappler can easily nullify his lone path to victory. Petrino, who might still be untested at the highest level, won’t have to worry too much about this factor because his opponent, while certainly a gatekeeper, doesn’t present a massive threat outside his round-one power.
The blueprint for Petrino is simple: take the fight to the ground, overpower Pedro, and look for an early submission. Should the early stoppage fail to surface, Pedro’s cardio will likely be shot before he can make a comeback, and eventually, a grounded TKO or submission finish will present itself.
UFC Vegas 87 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has placed Petrino as a significant betting favorite, but considering Pedro has gone the distance in just 2 of his 14 pro-MMA bouts, expecting the skills of Petrino to finish this contest before the judges intervene provides us with a much greater price point.
UFC Pick: Petrino Wins Inside the Distance (-145) [1.45u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Alex Perez
UFC Vegas 87 Flyweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, March 02, 2024 – 01:30 PM ET at UFC Apex
Muhammad Mokaev
The UFC’s latest poster boy for the flyweight division is Muhammad Mokaev. The British immigrant from Russia has stormed the 125-pound weight class since 2022 with five consecutive wins, four submissions, and one dominant unanimous decision.
- Mokaev Pro MMA Record: 10-0-0
- Mokaev KOs: 1
- Mokaev Submissions: 6
Alex Perez
Looking to spoil the unblemished record of Mokaev is the formidable Alex Perez, a 31-fight veteran of the sport who is 6-3 in the division, with his only setbacks coming against the current champion, Alexandre Pantoja, the former champ Deiveson Figueiredo, and one of the best UFC fighters never to win a title, Joseph Benavidez.
- Perez Pro MMA Record: 24-7-0
- Perez KOs: 5
- Perez Submissions: 7
Mokaev vs. Perez: Fight Tape Analysis
We’ll consider Brian Ortega as the anomaly in this argument. Still, activity is huge for many fighters, and this will be Perez’s biggest concern heading into Vegas this weekend. And now, following a near-two-year layoff, he’s expected to overcome one of the fastest-rising prospects in the division?
There’s no denying the level of competition Perez has faced; he can also crack hard and will take pleasure in destroying the momentum of a confident, young, and somewhat cocky Mokaev. Unfortunately for him and those betting in his favor, Mokaev is a monstrous grappler with sufficient BJJ and footwork, speed, and head movement to avoid an early knockout where Perez is usually the most dangerous.
Mokaev has fought grappling-heavy opponents to date and triumphed. I don’t believe Perez has significantly greater scrambling abilities or BJJ defense to give a clear gap between those past opponents and his own skills.
UFC Vegas 87 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed a juiced moneyline on Mokaev, and this doesn’t come as a surprise. Momentum, speed, activity, durability and the wrestling upside, amongst many other factors, side with Mokaev, and he’s the only viable side to wager on this weekend.
However, there isn’t much value in the Mokaev moneyline. Alternatively, add the under 2.5 rounds to boost the price from -350 to +140.
Perez has shown several vulnerabilities during grappling exchanges in the past; 85% of his pro career losses (6) were by KO/TKO or submission, and with the cage rust looming, surviving 15 minutes isn’t in his favor.
UFC Pick: Mokaev & Under 2.5 Rounds (+140) [1u returns 1.40u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
