The UFC is back home in Sin City this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for an Apex fight card that’s not just any card, but one stacked with up-and-coming talent, making it a significant event for all UFC fans.
The MMA betting odds are live; our fight tape is complete, so let’s dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 90 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Jean Matsumoto ML (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook
- McGee-Morono Under 2½ (+100) at Bet365
Jean Matsumoto vs. Dan Argueta
UFC Vegas 90 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, April 06, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Jean Matsumoto
With an impeccable record of 14 wins and 0 losses, Jean Matsumoto has been a force to reckon with on the Brazilian regional circuit for four years. His dominance continued with 2 victories and no losses in LFA, earning him a spot on Dana White’s Contender Series.
His UFC coming-out party in September 2023 allowed him to display superior skills as he defeated the previously unbeaten Kasey Tanner, thus securing a deal with the UFC.
- Matsumoto Pro Record: 14-0-0
- Matsumoto KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Matsumoto Submission Wins: 5
Dan Argueta
After his brief participation in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 29, Dan Argueta went on to have a victorious LFA title campaign, narrowly defeating Diego Silva for the championship in May 2022. He had an even record in his first two UFC fights against Damon Jackson and Nick Aguirre. However, due to an early stoppage in a battle against Ronnie Lawrence and Miles Johns’ positive drug test, both fights were declared “No Contest.”
- Argueta Pro Record: 9-1-0
- Argueta KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Argueta Submission Wins: 4
Matsumoto vs. Argueta: Fight Tape Analysis
Never trust a fighter who jumps the guillotine with your money unless his name is Dustin Poirier. Despite owning a respectable pro record of 9-1, Dan Argueta is a fighter, and I struggle to understand why so many “sharps” trust him as an underdog this weekend.
Argueta will need to wrestle and maintain top control for fifteen straight minutes to have his hand raised this weekend. Given some of his ugly mistakes inside the cage (e.g., jumping the guillotine), I cannot trust him to stick to a game plan.
On the feet, this contest won’t be close. Argueta is undesirable in all aspects of offensive striking, and considering Matsumoto’s return fire during his pro tenure thus far, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brazilian could end this contest via TKO.
UFC Vegas90 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has placed Matsumoto as the favorite, and rightfully so. Money is coming in on Argueta from those who believe the wrestling upside will reign supreme.
With Matsumoto, he’s been taken down and returned to his feet in the past; his initial takedown defense is also respectable, and Argueta isn’t consistent enough in his chain wrestling to the point where we should worry about complete domination on the ground.
UFC Pick: Matsumoto ML (-170) [1.70u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Court McGee vs. Alex Morono
UFC Vegas 90 Welterweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, April 06, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Court McGee
Court McGee, with a record of 22-12 and 14 years on the roster, capitalized on his impressive performance in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 11 back in 2010 by achieving a 5-2 start to life in the UFC.
Notably, he’s secured victory against Robert Whittaker during this stretch. Still, Father Time hasn’t been kind; since then, he has a record of 5 wins and 9 losses. His most recent two fights were first-round knockout defeats against Jeremiah Wells and Matt Brown.
- McGee Pro Record: 21-12-0
- McGee KO/TKO Wins: 10
- McGee Submission Wins: 11
Alex Morono
Alex Morono steadily ascended the Welterweight rankings over a span of four years following his promotional debut in 2016, achieving an impressive 8-2 record. During this time, he secured victories over notable opponents, including Max Griffin and Donald Cerrone.
Currently, he has a record of 1-2 in his most recent three fights, with a submission victory over Tim Means but defeats to Santiago Ponzinibbio and Joaquin Buckley.
- Morono Pro Record: 23-9-0
- Morono KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Morono Submission Wins: 7
McGee vs. Morono: Fight Tape Analysis
With two seasoned veterans of the sport, predicting a clear winner in this contest is a challenging task. While McGee, one year away from his 40th birthday, enters as a significant underdog, he possesses a well-rounded skill set that can see him excel in all aspects of MMA.
That said, it’s easy to understand why sportsbooks are doubting his chances this weekend. Morono has shown to be a vicious striker in the past, and he also owns the ground skills to himself out of danger, with none of his 18 UFC bouts ending due to a submission. Coupled with McGee’s age, two straight losses via KO/TKO, and the fact that he’s been knocked down in 4 of his previous 6 bouts, durability is seemingly out of the window for this OG fighter.
UFC Vegas 90 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed too much juice on Morono, and a crafty veteran in McGee is always one surprise punch or rear-naked-choke away from ruining our night.
However, I can get behind fading McGhee’s durability. The speed difference should heavily favor Morono finding an early KO/TKO, but with two knockout losses of his own, the shock stoppage factor for the underdog is still in play.
Personally, backing the under is an alternate route to playing Morono as a fade on McGee’s chin, but with considerably more value. In addition, it also gives us some insurance in case the old dog still has one more in him.
UFC Pick: Under 2½ Rounds (+100) [1u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
