The UFC returns to Vegas this Saturday, and we expect violence in two main card contests. More importantly, oddsmakers are providing respectable value on the under in these bouts.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 91 main card, with UFC odds from the top sportsbooks.
Also, don’t forget to check out our YouTube video with picks for the Spann-Guskov and the Nicolau-Perez bouts.
Picks Summary
- Silva-Lipski Under 2½ Rounds (-150)
- Medic-Means Under 2½ Rounds (-180)
*All odds from at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Karine Silva vs. Ariane Lipski
UFC Vegas 91 Women’s Flyweight Bout
Saturday, April 27, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Karine Silva
With elite-level jiu-jitsu, fight-ending power in her fists, and a physique that would intimidate most men, Brazil’s Karine Silva returns to the octagon this weekend in hopes of keeping her 3-0, undefeated promotional record intact.
- Silva Pro MMA Record: 17-4-0
- Silva KOs: 8
- Silva Submissions: 9
Ariane Lipski
Behind five years of UFC experience and a pro record that’s delivered ten victories inside the distance, fading Ariane Lipski, which was once a viable approach, is no more. Riding the first 3-fight win streak of her UFC tenure, the Brazilian continues her journey through the women’s flyweight rankings this weekend but a fierce and fellow countrywoman awaits.
- Lipski Pro MMA Record: 17-8-0
- Lipski KOs: 6
- Lipski Submissions: 4
Silva vs. Lipski: Fight Tape Analysis
First of all, Silva is jacked. I’m not sure what vitamins she’s taking, but they’ve certainly assisted her rise throughout the UFC rankings as she’s dominated the competition in all three of her UFC bouts to date. A versatile Jiu-jitsu offense has delivered a kneebar, a guillotine and a D’arce choke submission thus far, and her regional tenure also involved a long streak of BJJ masterclasses.
Silva’s strength and ground control are noteworthy, and regarding physicality, it isn’t easy to envision many flyweight competitors outmatching her. However, her wrestling has been a concern, and while her jiu-jitsu has made up for that, Lipski has displayed some credible moments in clinch and defensive grappling situations.
The technical striking aspect of this fight should favor Lipski, but Silva has the advantage regarding straight-up power.
UFC Vegas 91 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Much like Silva, Lipski hasn’t seen the judge’s scorecards often in recent years. Since 2020, Lipski has displayed a kill-or-be-killed attitude, having gone the distance in just 5 of her previous 7 contests. I sense a similar scenario this weekend, which is why I’m seeing value in the under 2½ rounds.
Lipski, without a doubt, has the striking skills to snap Silva’s impressive streak. Still, likewise, we have seen the underdog outmuscled in grounded situations, and a Silva submission is never too far away.
Either way, one of these ladies will exit the octagon with a submission or KO/TKO loss on their record.
UFC Pick: Under 2½ Rounds (-150) [1.5u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Tim Means vs. Uros Medic
UFC Vegas 91 Welterweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, April 27, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Tim Means
A true veteran of the game, Tim Means, aged 40, will compete in his 50th competitive pro-MMA bout this weekend. Twelve years of UFC experience is no joke, but three losses from his previous four contests don’t present “The Dirty Bird” fighters feared in the past.
- Means Pro MMA Record: 33-15-1
- Means KOs: 5
- Means Submissions: 10
Uros Medic
The number of years that Means has competed in the UFC, twelve, is the same number of professional bouts Uros Medic has competed in overall. There’s a landslide in experience, no doubt, but a young and hungry Medic, who’s won all of his pro bouts via KO/TKO or submission, isn’t one to be overlooked.
- Medic Pro MMA Record: 9-2-0
- Medic KOs: 7
- Medic Submissions: 2
Means vs. Medic: Fight Tape Analysis
Despite his age and apparent longevity concerns, Means does a great job of eating shots and rolling with the punches. Sure, he’s old, but on the inside, his nickname “The Dirty Bird” comes to light as he puts his fists through guards and does excellently at damaging the opposition.
We’ve had mixed reviews of Medic’s five UFC bouts to date. He’s prone to upsets, however, as his two most recent octagon successes saw him enter the matchup as a betting underdog.
For Means to do what he does best, this fight must get dirty, pun intended. However, from a technical standpoint, it’s challenging to overlook Medic’s incredible striking prowess.
UFC Vegas 91 Main Card Odds & Prediction
I see two scenarios playing out when Means and Medic go to battle, both of which involve a KO/TKO or submission stoppage. Either Means can play the long game, rough Medic up with dirty boxing, drain his cardio, and find a late TKO or club and sub situation, or Medic blasts him during a technical exchange on the feet.
Medic has never gone the distance, and considering we’re getting -180 on the under, how can we pass up this value, especially when you factor in the age of Means and the 14 KO/TKO and submission endings he’s been involved with as a UFC competitor.
UFC Pick: Under 2½ Rounds (-180) [1.8u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
