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BETTING

UFC Vegas 92 Main Card Best Bets: Backing Some Value Plays in the Apex

The UFC returns to Vegas this Saturday, and we expect brutality in the co-main event when Khaos Williams goes to war with Carlston Harris.

Elsewhere at the top of the card, Adrian Yanez and Vinicius Salvador look to snap their two-fight-losing skids, where two explosive striking offenses could result in a knockout.

On that note, let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 92 main card.

Picks Summary

  • Williams-Harris Under 2½ (-180)
  • Yanez By KO/TKO (-110)

*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)


Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris

UFC Vegas 92 Welterweight Co-Main Event Bout

Saturday, May 18, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex


Khaos Williams

Williams isn’t the prettiest, the fastest starter, or the most prolific welterweight on the roster. Still, the 30-year-old is now 5-2 as a UFC welterweight and a diverse skillset has assisted him in defeating former hype trains such as Miguel Baeza, where he thrived in an underdog position like he is this weekend.

  • Williams Pro MMA Record: 14-3-0
  • Williams KOs: 6
  • Williams Submissions: 2

Carlston Harris

After three years and a 4-1 promotional record, 36-year-old Carlston Harris is proving that age isn’t always a factor in success. His finishing ability has been on point, as three of his four UFC wins have ended via KO/TKO or submission.

His game planning has multiple red flags, but the dangers he presents inside the octagon have proved worthy to date, and he’ll be looking for a third straight victory this Saturday in Vegas.

  • Harris Pro MMA Record: 19-5-0
  • Harris KOs: 5
  • Harris Submissions: 6

Williams vs. Harris: Fight Tape Analysis

Harris is such an awkward striker, which has probably assisted him in victory thus far. I imagine that game planning for him on the feet isn’t easy. Still, his most serious threats undoubtedly come on the ground, where he’s already collected two Anaconda choke victories under the UFC banner for his four successes.

I’d give him a higher ceiling if Harris’ wrestling offensive were top-tier. However, grappling will be his path to victory this weekend, and the BJJ threat will be present throughout all three rounds.

In contrast, Williams’ punching power, while quiet of late, will certainly be a problem for Harris, who has displayed the greatest defensive striking awareness in the past. His two most recent losses both arrived via KO/TKO.

UFC Vegas 92 Main Card Odds & Prediction

Williams has shown a willingness to fight close when I actually believe he’d find more success on Saturday by keeping Harris at range and piecing him up. This could result in a simple path to grappling for Harris, which will likely result in him eventually finding a choke.

Oppositely, if Harris wants to play around the feet, I can easily see the underdog flatlining him inside the 15 minutes, which leads me straight to the under 2½ rounds where we aren’t forced to pick a victor in a contest that could go either way.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see either man walk out victorious but win or lose, Harris leaves it all in the octagon and hasn’t gone the distance in 8 of his previous 9 MMA bouts, and I don’t expect him to this weekend.

UFC Pick: Under 2½ (-180) [1.8u returns 1u profit] with Bet365


Adrian Yanez vs. Vinicius Salvador

UFC Vegas 92 Bantamweight Main Card Bout

Saturday, May 18, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex


Adrian Yanez

A five-fight win streak with four knockout victories to kickstart his UFC career in 2020 had positioned Adrian Yanez as the next big thing. Unfortunately, the UFC wasn’t interested in a slow build, and he was thrown to the wolves as elite opponents Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez quickly derailed the hype train.

  • Yanez Pro MMA Record: 16-5-0
  • Yanez KOs: 5
  • Yanez Submissions: 10

Vinicius Salvador

Brazil’s Vinicius Salvador hasn’t had the easiest start to his UFC tenure, with Victor Altamirano and CJ Vergara as his first two opponents. While he’s displayed an ability to survive, he was outclassed in those bouts, and now we wonder if the 0-2 promotional record will take a U-turn with a move from 125 to 135 pounds.

  • Salvador Pro MMA Record: 14-6-0 
  • Salvador KOs: 5
  • Salvador Submissions: 10

Yanez vs. Salvador: Fight Tape Analysis

People will quickly forget due to his recent losses, but Yanez is one of the most entertaining strikers in the bantamweight division, and he’s guaranteed to put on a show. Well, I say ‘striker,’ but what I meant was ‘boxer.’

Clean boxing, aggression, a fast pace, awesome head movement, and a level of intelligence are undoubtedly assets of Yanez that make him capable of defeating inexperienced fighters lacking noteworthy abilities.

I’m unsure how Salvador will succeed as a bantamweight, one of the promotion’s most talent-stacked visions, when he’s already 0-2 as a flyweight. We’ve yet to see viable game plans from him, and it would seem like he’s just present in the octagon without showing his opposition anything to worry about.

UFC Vegas 92 Main Card Odds & Prediction

The UFC odds at OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks have placed Yanez as a large betting favorite at -350. Considering both men enter on a two-fight losing streak, some bettors might wonder why the price isn’t closer in value; well, let me tell you.

Yanez has lost against top-ranked opponents, and beforehand, he was dominating fighters who were on the level of Salvador without much experience. I anticipate we’ll see the version of Yanez we know and love this weekend, and those juiced odds can be boosted with a KO/TKO prop added.

Salvador has survived the onslaughts of flyweights who aren’t known for their striking prowess, but now he’s matched with a boxer in Yanez who will punish mistakes on the feet, unlike those who came before him.

It could be round one or three; eventually, Yanez will force Salvador into an unresponsive position after a flurry of combinations, and the referee will step in to prevent further punishment.

UFC Pick: Yanez By KO/TKO (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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