The UFC returns to Sin City for another Vegas card this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a fight night stacked with up-and-coming talent from top to bottom.
With twelve bouts scheduled, the live MMA odds are ready for us to dissect, so let’s dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 92 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Magomedov-Alves Under 1½ (-130)
- Gatto Win By Decision (+155)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Abus Magomedov vs. Warlley Alves
UFC Vegas 92 Middleweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, May 18, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Abus Magomedov
In just his second scheduled UFC bout, Abus Magomedov was tasked with fighting Sean Strickland, and then a quick turnaround positioned him against Caio Borralho. That’s a rough beginning for the best of fighters, so we cannot take those consecutive losses and judge the Dagestani middleweight for it.
That said, his promotional debut displayed a version of Abus that held promise. He continued an emphatic KO streak to collect his 14th knockout win from 25 pro wins, and now, with a reset in his opposition level this Saturday, don’t be surprised if he can return to the win column.
- Magomedov Pro Record: 25-6-1
- Magomedov KO/TKO Wins: 14
- Magomedov Submission Wins: 6
Warlley Alves
Warlley Alves once submitted Colby Covington in round one. Unfortunately, that 2015 success remains his most noteworthy outing, as a 4-7 run since then has seen him plummet down the rankings.
Aged 33, Alves’ downfall hasn’t been pretty, and his trip to the Apex this weekend might be his last. Three consecutive losses via KO/TKO is brutal, so a similar outcome could undoubtedly result in his release from the company.
- Alves Pro Record: 14-7-0
- Alves KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Alves Submission Wins: 6
Magomedov vs. Alves: Fight Tape Analysis
Despite faltering to a striking clinic put on by Sean Strickland, Magomedov is a fighter who excels in kickboxing wars. He owns a nasty front kick and delivers some beautiful strikes at range, and his power is evident when you browse the fourteen knockout wins he’s collected during his career thus far.
That said, his grappling isn’t non-existent, and he’s no stranger to pressuring the opposition with submission attempts. However, as Alves has proven his grappling abilities, I wouldn’t expect the Russian to game-plan this as a path to victory.
For Alves, his toughness is commendable, and he’s serviceable in all facets of MMA. The body kick he laced Mounir Lazzez within his most recent victory was a blistering strike, and there’s no doubt the current underdog price is disrespecting his skill set.
UFC Vegas 92 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks places Magomedov as a heavy betting favorite, and you already know we aren’t playing juice in this range.
Alves has displayed some weak durability lately; his cardio has sometimes seemed shot, but he’s also a dangerous opponent who’s won most of his UFC bouts via KO/TKO or submission (6). Likewise, Magomedov is hazardous to any opponent, finishing his three most recent wins inside the distance.
The under is set at 1½ rounds, which is understandable. Both men are fast starters, and the welterweight division is the perfect blend of speed and power that can result in early stoppages. Given that round one and round two stoppages are incredibly common in both fighters’ careers, and both will equally be looking to make a statement, I’m comfortable with the under at the -130 price tag.
Under 1½ Rounds: Supporting UFC Vegas 92 Facts
- Magomedov has gone the distance in just 1 of his previous 6 pro-MMA bouts
- Magomedov has seen under 1 ½ rounds in 7 of his 9 most recent victories
- Alves has seen under 1 ½ rounds in 4 of his previous 6 bouts
- Alves has gone the distance in just 5 of his 15 UFC bouts
UFC Pick: Under 1½ Rounds (-130) [1.3u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Tamires Vidal vs. Melissa Gatto
UFC Vegas 92 Women’s Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, May 18, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Tamires Vidal
Tamires Vidal made her UFC debut in the best way possible by handing Ramona Pascual a flying knee to the skull to secure a KO win. Unfortunately, the same energy wasn’t matched last time, and Montserrat Rendon handed her a reality check.
- Vidal Pro Record: 7-2-0
- Vidal KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Vidal Submission Wins: 2
Melissa Gatto
Gatto also returns to the octagon with losses on her record, but the key difference is the level of competition she’s faced. Losing to Tracy Cortez was unfortunate, as she was able to match the wrestling in certain scenarios. Then, a comeback versus another top fighter in Ariane Lipski held little shame, as a split decision loss continued the losing streak.
- Gatto Pro Record: 8-2-2
- Gatto KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Gatto Submission Wins: 4
Vidal vs. Gatto: Fight Tape Analysis
We’re looking at a -300 and above price point for Gatto, which isn’t cute when the fighter in question is riding a two-fight losing streak. However, it’s very indicative of the skill differentials in this contest.
Technically, Vidal is the natural bantamweight, but the bigger picture shows a talent in Gatto, who’s unquestionably the better striker, wrestler, and grappler. Furthermore, Gatto’s physicality is undeniable, which isn’t a good sign when we’ve watched Vidal get rag-dolled in the past.
UFC Vegas 92 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed an unplayable moneyline on Gatto. The good news is that she’ll likely win this contest on the scorecards.
Vidal is the natural bantamweight; she’s been finished just once during her career. While she’ll be outclassed in all facets of MMA, I do believe the weight factor will give her a durability edge as Gatto wins this contest unanimously on the judge’s scorecards.
UFC Pick: Gatto Win By Decision (+155) [1u returns 1.55u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
