The UFC returns home to the Las Vegas Apex this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Nevada fight card stacked with up-and-coming talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 95 preliminary card bouts, including detailed analysis and the best MMA odds on the market.
Picks Summary
- Karl Williams & Over 1.5 Rounds (+100) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Karol Rosa & Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Karl Willams vs. Jhonata Diniz
UFC Vegas 95 Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Karl Willams
As a Dana White’s Contender Series alum of 2022, Virgin Islands native Karl Williams has maintained an unblemished record since joining the UFC’s heavyweight roster with three straight dominant wins on the scorecards.
He doesn’t own the prettiest skillset, nor is he the most entertaining, but with solid wrestling, he’s made his opponents wilt under a top-heavy game, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him accomplish the same this weekend.
- Williams Pro Record: 10-1-0
- Williams KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Williams Submission Wins: 0
Jhonata Diniz
Brazil’s Jhonata Diniz is an exciting prospect on paper; he’s won all seven of his pro-MMA bouts via KO/TKO. That said, despite being 33, he lacks professional experience, and a less-than-desirable performance against Austen Lane last time out presents various red flags as he moves up the ranks.
- Dinaz Pro Record: 7-0
- Dinaz KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Dinaz Submission Wins: 0
Williams vs. Diniz: Fight Tape Analysis
Here’s my problem: if anybody watched Diniz against Lane, you’d notice how easy it was for the latter to secure a takedown. Yes, Diniz finished the fight with a vicious KO/TKO stoppage, but now, with an opponent like Williams up next, I can’t help but believe he will get mauled in the wrestling department.
Notably, Williams’ chin has never faltered, and his offensive wrestling game is levels above Diniz’s last opponent. It’s a recipe for another schooling on the ground, only this time, the wrestler in question has nice straight and standing tools to keep himself safe if necessary.
The threat of Williams’ takedowns alone will make Diniz hesitant to rush in the pocket and attempt his patterned early knockout. Mix this in with light-footed Williams, who can deliver and finish his entries to the takedown at will; I only see this outcome siding with the favorite.
UFC Vegas 95 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top-rated sportsbooks makes Williams a slight betting favorite, and honestly, he could make this line feel like a -900 come fight night.
That said, we can boost these odds even higher by adding the over 1.5 rounds to Williams’ moneyline. Historically, this man tactically wears his opponents down and smoothers them on the ground with little eagerness to find the finish.
Should Williams find a stoppage win, I don’t believe it’ll arrive in the early goings against a fresh Diniz, thus making the ML and over 1.5 a perfect combination to grab some plus-money value.
UFC Pick: Williams ML & Over 1.5 (+100) [1u returns 1.0u profit] at Bet365
Willams Win & Over 1.5: Supporting UFC Vegas 95 Facts
- Williams has won seven consecutive pro-MMA bouts.
- Williams has won four straight fights via decision.
- Williams has seen over 1.5 rounds in 7 of his 11 pro-MMA bouts to date.
Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad
UFC Vegas 95 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Karol Rosa
Rewind five years, and a 24-year-old Karol Rosa kickstarted her UFC tenure in the best way possible. Between 2019 and 2021, the Brazilian ran through the competition to collect a four-fight win streak, but unfortunately, it’s been a hit-or-miss career ever since.
Since then, Rosa has suffered from alternate wins and losses, but at just 29, she has a lot of room for growth, and perhaps her true potential has yet to be revealed.
- Rosa Pro Record: 17-6-0
- Rosa KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Rosa Submission Wins: 2
Pannie Kianzad
Pannie Kianzad has also collected a four-fight win streak during her UFC career. The difference is that she’s 5-5 for the promotion, and all five of her wins came against fighters who’ve since been cut from the company.
It’s a harsh reality, but Kianzad doesn’t own a significant win on her record. Furthermore, eight of her 10 UFC bouts went the distance, and she has never won a UFC fight via KO/TKO or submission.
- Kianzad Pro Record: 16-8-0
- Kianzad KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Kianzad Submission Wins: 0
Rosa vs. Kianzad: Fight Tape Analysis
Neither Rosa nor Kianzad are noteworthy UFC roster members. The fact of the matter is that Saturday’s bout is a case of picking the best of two bad apples, and Kianzad, without a doubt, shows significantly less promise than her weekend opponent.
You can watch fight tape on Kianzad until the cows come home, but you won’t find a notable aspect of her fight game. She excels in zero areas of MMA, often approaching her contests with mediocre offense in both striking and grappling realms.
Rosa also has her flaws. However, we can pinpoint specific skills, such as heavy combinations on the feet and enough power to score points on the judge’s scorecards.
UFC Vegas 95 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds favor Rosa, and rightfully so. Kianzad’s best path to victory would be through a grounded affair. Still, unlike the talents of Sara McMann and Norma Dumont, who’ve achieved this previously, she doesn’t own enough offensive takedown upside.
Rosa is likely to piece Kianzad up on the feet, and although toughness will be present, it’ll be a third straight loss for the Swede. Don’t expect a barn-burner, and extended clinch positions have the potential to drag the clock out, but this only favors the Rosa ML and over 1.5 rounds combination for a nice +105 set of odds.
UFC Pick: Rosa & Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) [1u returns 1.05u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
Rosa & Over 1.5 Rounds: Supporting UFC Vegas 95 Facts
- Kianzad has gone the distance in 18 of her 24 pro-MMA bouts.
- Kianzad has gone the distance in 9 of her 10 UFC bouts.
- Rosa has gone the distance in all 9 of her UFC bouts.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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