The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns from its one-week break, and the small Apex octagon in Sin City will play host to this weekend’s MMA festivities.
Steve Garcia, Kyle Nelson, Trevor Peek, and Yanal Ashmouz are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas 97 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Nelson ML (+150)
- Peek ML (-138)
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*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Vegas 97 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady (UFC Welterweight Title Bout)
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson
UFC Vegas 97 Featherweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 08:25 PM ET at UFC Apex
Steve Garcia
The “Mean Machine” Steve Garcia is heating up following a topsy-turvy beginning to his UFC tenure. The knockout artist with an impressive 13 KOs from 16 pro-MMA wins dropped losses to Luis Pena and Maheshate Hayisaer. However, this would start the four-fight knockout streak he’s currently riding ahead of his octagon return this weekend.
- Garcia Pro MMA Record: 16-5-0
- Garcia KOs: 13
- Garcia Submissions: 0
Kyle Nelson
Kyle Nelson debuted in 2018, and a horrid 1-4 run placed the Canadian next in line to be cut from the promotion. He was fortunate not to receive his marching orders and, impressively, turned his career around by making mincemeat of his last three opponents alongside a draw with Doo Ho Choi.
- Nelson Pro MMA Record: 16-5-1
- Nelson KOs: 6
- Nelson Submissions: 4
Garcia vs. Nelson: Fight Analysis
Everyone loves an underdog story, and Nelson has embodied such a role like no other. In nine UFC appearances to date, he’s 4-4-1, but uniquely, he’s been the betting underdog in 8 of those contests, with the outlier being versus Polo Reyes, where he was a modest -115 favorite.
Fading Nelson has placed bettors on the wrong side of history, especially since 2023 when he cashed at +230, +205, and +200. He’s got heavy hands that can put opponents out, but it’s the long game he can play, which is a huge credit to his winning ability.
Oppositely, Garcia relies on his fists more often than not. His kryptonite to date has been the ability to survive the test of time, and all but one of his career losses have been on the scorecards. It’s clear that cardio can be a struggle for Garcia whenever his patented knockout doesn’t arrive, and this could spell trouble versus a well-rounded Nelson who doesn’t stop coming forward in every round.
UFC Vegas 97 Main Card Odds & Prediction
I completely understand why the UFC odds place Garcia as the favorite. He’s a menacing opponent for any featherweight, and his willingness to leave everything in the octagon has assisted him well thus far.
However, I don’t believe Garcia will have a plan B should Nelson survive the early onslaught. Yet again, we’re looking at an underdog who’s more than capable of outperforming his current price.
Not only does Nelson have more experience against higher levels of opposition, but he’s also a more well-rounded fighter with trustworthy cardio. He has the potential to steal the second and third rounds over a lethargic Garcia or, dare I say, a knockout by catching the overly confident striker.
UFC Pick: Nelson ML (+150) [1u returns 1.5u profit] at Bet365
Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz
UFC Vegas 97 Lightweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 07:35 PM ET at UFC Apex
Trevor Peek
Trevor Peek’s lightweight career hasn’t gone as planned. After beginning with eight consecutive wins by knockout, all was well, but the unbeaten prospect was quickly exposed to the elite-level competition of the UFC.
While the UFC run has revealed some of the Alabama native’s holes, I think I can speak for the MMA fan base when I say we hope he replicates some of his early career, which involved insane power, blood, and knockouts galore.
- Peek Pro MMA Record: 9-2
- Peek KOs: 8
- Peek Submissions: 0
Yanal Ashmouz
Yanal Ashmouz could be the stylistic fighter who’ll assist Peek in showing that aforementioned slug-fest style that caught the UFC’s interest. The Israeli fighter, similarly, loves to throw hands with bad intent, and prior to losing a unanimous decision to Chris Duncan last summer, he’d finished all but one of his opponents inside the distance.
- Ashmouz Pro MMA Record: 7-1
- Ashmouz KOs: 4
- Ashmouz Submissions: 2
Peek vs. Ashmouz: Fight Tape Analysis
Trevor Peek’s UFC tenure has a 2-2 record, which isn’t good but isn’t bad either. While many expected the man who collected nothing but first or second-round knockouts during his regional scene stint to suffer across 15 minutes, he surprised us all and has now gone the distance without wilting in three straight bouts… Heck, he even won one of them.
Ashmouz and Peek have one glaring MMA deficiency in common: They’re both rugged with horrible defensive styles. This could be money for the under, but funnily, what they lack in defense, they make up for in durability.
Don’t expect a technical masterclass in this one. Still, in what should become a striking battle, you have to favor Peek’s power and output after watching Ashmouz get absolutely picked apart for fifteen minutes by a mediocre foe in Chris Duncan.
UFC Vegas 97 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The odds at the top sportsbooks favor Peek, albeit by a small margin. The odds are tightly lined for a reason, and we’ve highlighted some of those factors. Ashmouz flatlining Sam Patterson as a +225 dog was impressive, but it’ll only take one flush Peek bomb to land in a similar scenario, and he’ll be gazing at the arena lights.
From a technical or grappling standpoint, neither fighter has much upside. If anyone expects this to become a striking affair, which is highly probable, don’t be surprised if a stand-and-bang situation plays out before somebody is left unconscious on the canvas. And for that reason, siding with Peek, who’ll also have the upside should it go to the judges, is the more sensible wagering approach.
UFC Pick: Peek ML (-138) [1.38u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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