The UFC is back home in Vegas this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for an Apex fight card stacked with up-and-coming talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 97 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Padilla ML (+225)
- Santos ML (+150)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Rongzhu vs. Chris Padilla
UFC Vegas 97 Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Rongzhu
He is 24 years old, with thirty pro-MMA bouts to his name, which seemingly makes China’s Rongzhu a serious prospect with heaps of experience at a young age. However, this youngster’s first UFC stint three years ago resulted in a 1-2 record, including a defeat to a lackluster Rodrigo Vargas, who’s since been cut from the promotion.
At such a young age, it wasn’t over for Rongzhu. He fought his way back, dominated on Road to UFC, and now finds himself back for a second run in the promotion this weekend. The problem is that most of the experience has been collected on the Asian regional MMA scene, and while the sample size of 25 wins looks impressive, the level of opposition hasn’t been!
- Rongzhu Pro Record: 25-5-0
- Rongzhu KO/TKO Wins: 14
- Rongzhu Submission Wins: 7
Chris Padilla
Chris Padilla is no world-beater, but a 14-6 pro-MMA record has undeniably presented a stiffer level of competition. Now, without a loss since 2022, Padilla has not only finished four straight opponents via KO/TKO or submission, but he also cashed as a +340 underdog in his UFC debut four months ago, yet this hasn’t altered the oddsmakers’ opinion on his ceiling this Saturday.
- Padilla Pro Record: H
- Padilla KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Padilla Submission Wins: 5
Rongzhu vs. Padilla: Fight Tape Analysis
With 17 knockout wins to date, it’s no secret that Rongzhu loves those hands. That said, he’s been no stranger to shooting a takedown or two, but his willingness to grapple is what could get him in trouble this weekend.
Padilla’s clear path to victory is through the wrestling and grappling-heavy skill set that’s brought him to the dance. Fortunately for him, Rongzhu has been willing to accept wherever his opponents want to fight in the past, and should the underdog initiate some grappling, I’d expect the Chinaman to follow suit.
Rongzhu made Rodrigo Vargas look like a UFC-worthy competitor, and this loss, alongside a foolish submission defeat to Bahamondes, could arguably be his toughest fight to date in which he failed. Sure, there’s an argument that he’s evolved, but fighting in Asia isn’t the playing ground where we can make such a judgment.
UFC Vegas 97 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Rongzhu a significant betting favorite, and that’s precisely why I’m going the opposite way. He hasn’t earned the right to hold such a price, and while he’s versatile in all facets of MMA, the grappling strengths of Padilla could easily expose the Chinese fighter’s questionable decision-making and fight intelligence.
Padilla recently faced a heavy-handed striker in James Llontop. After throwing some low kicks and jabs to disguise the obvious game plan, he was intelligent enough to shoot the double-leg takedown before a return to the feet resulted in another takedown that led to a quick submission stoppage. I envision Rongzhu’s low IQ making similar mistakes, and at this ridiculous price, I’m willing to take the chance.
UFC Pick: Padilla ML (+225) [1u returns 2.2u profit] at Bet365
Andre Lima vs. Felipe dos Santos
UFC Vegas 97 Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Andre Lima
Brazil’s Andre Lima made his name known on Dana White’s Contender Series after collecting five wins and four knockouts on the Brazilian regional scene. However, he soon learned that his flyweight power wouldn’t quite hit the same in the big leagues, and while he’s 2-0 in the UFC on paper, disqualification and a split decision don’t exactly match the hype of his current moneyline price tag for Saturday’s event.
- Lima Pro Record: 9-0
- Lima KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Lima Submission Wins: 0
Felipe dos Santos
Yes, Felipe dos Santos is 1-1 in the UFC, but the level of competition he’s faced has been levels above that of his weekend opponent. His loss to top-ranked Manel Kape on short notice was especially impressive because he put up a good fight for 15 minutes as a promotional newcomer going against a veteran striker with a high knockout danger.
- Santos Pro Record: 8-1
- Santos KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Santos Submission Wins: 3
UFC Vegas 97 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The pricing at OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Dos Santos a +150 underdog, and we’ll be making another wager based on strange matchmaking. If it weren’t for the Kape loss, we’d be seeing an even line, and Lima’s performances under the UFC banner haven’t matched the hype before his debut.
In fact, Lima was getting worked on before Igor Severino decided to bite. It was one of the strangest outcomes in 2024 so far, and this type of result shouldn’t be factored into the probabilities, yet it would seem like it is.
Undoubtedly, we could give Lima an edge in striking output and even KO/TKO finishing potential. However, as the more well-rounded fighter who presents a relentless pace and the durability to hang with the division’s best, give me Dos Santos at dog money all day long.
UFC Pick: Santos ML (+150) [1u returns 1.5u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
