The NFL’s 2023 season is off and running with the Chiefs getting upset at home by the Lions. There were not many touchdowns in the game, but you can expect things to pick up this weekend when the rest of the league is in action.
We are eyeing some of our favorite player prop picks from games like Panthers-Falcons, Texans-Ravens, and Cardinals-Commanders. Using the player props section on OddsTrader, we have identified the top online sportsbooks offering the best prices for these props.
- Tony Pollard (DAL) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Sam Howell (WSH) Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+135) at Bet365
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) Over 1.5 Passing TDs(+135) at Bet365
- Kyle Pitts (ATL) Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
- T.J. Hockenson (MIN) Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) at Bet365
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Cowboys are entering a season without Ezekiel Elliott for the first time since 2015. But that is fine because Tony Pollard showed he could be the featured back last year with great results. He had one of his best games early on against the Giants when he rushed for 105 yards off the bench.
Pollard also had 60 yards on Thanksgiving, which was a frustrating game to watch if you had prop bets on him after his ascension during the season. The Cowboys seemed to be drawing up touchdowns for everyone but Pollard as Elliott vultured the first score, then tight ends Dalton Schultz (2 scores) and Peyton Hendershot (2-yard rushing touchdown) scored the last 3 touchdowns.
Are you ready to be hurt again? This time, Pollard has a new offensive coordinator in Brian Schottenheimer, who will hopefully reward his main back this time. The Giants could be a good matchup after they ranked 27th in rushing yards and 31st in yards per carry allowed last year.
Incredibly, Pollard has never scored a touchdown in 8 career meetings with the Giants. But instead of betting on that streak to continue, let’s go against the grain and predict it will end as the Cowboys look to start strong on Sunday Night Football against what could still be the worst defensive team in the NFC East this year.
NFL Pick: Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at FedExField
Sam Howell (Washington Commanders)
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
After the Chiefs struggled without Travis Kelce against Detroit, all we need to see is the Commanders light up Arizona for the headlines to go crazy over offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy going from Kansas City to Washington. But this might be the only week all season where Sam Howell is in a position to vastly outshine Patrick Mahomes.
Arizona’s defense is not going to be good this year as it lost most of the pass-rushing talent, including J.J. Watt (retired). Head coach Jonathan Gannon’s scheme was picked apart by Bieniemy’s Chiefs in the Super Bowl, and all really good quarterbacks basically picked apart Gannon when he was with the Eagles in 2021-22.
Now he has far less talent to work with on both sides of the ball.
But Howell looked legitimately good in the preseason, and he should have ample opportunities for scoring plays in the red zone in this offense, even if they require very short throws. This is a good defensive matchup for him to give early hope to Commanders fans.
Finally, if Carson Wentz could throw for 4 touchdowns on opening day against Jacksonville last year, then nothing is off limits for Howell against the (expected) worst team in the NFL this year.
Trust this to work as you may never get better odds on this line the rest of the year for Howell.
NFL Pick: Sam Howell Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135) at Bet365
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Last season, Lamar Jackson came out firing with a 3-game stretch as good as any in his career. He had 10 touchdown passes and 2 more scores on the ground in those games.
But with injuries hurting the offense and eventually ending Jackson’s season, he only passed for 7 more touchdowns in his last 9 games.
Jackson has a new contract, a new offensive coordinator (Todd Monken) who should be open to throwing more, and new weapons with Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie 1st-round pick Zay Flowers. This should be the deepest and most talented passing offense Jackson has ever played in.
He also gets a very winnable game in Week 1 at home as the Texans have a rough year ahead of them despite making good moves to rebuild this offseason. But Houston is the only underdog of more than 7 points this week.
Jackson has had some of his most prolific passing games in season openers with 324 yards and 5 touchdowns against the 2019 Dolphins, 275 yards and 3 touchdowns against the 2020 Browns, and 213 yards and 3 touchdowns against the 2022 Jets.
Jackson may not hit those numbers again this weekend, but we just need a pair of passing touchdowns against a weak opponent and secondary for him to hit this prop at better than even money.
NFL Prop Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135) at Bet365
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons)
- Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
A lot of attention in Atlanta this weekend will be on how quarterback Desmond Ridder plays in his first season opener as a starter. There will also be a lot of hype for running back Bijan Robinson, the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
But do not forget about Kyle Pitts, who is returning from injury after he only averaged 35.6 receiving yards per game, down from 60.4 in his rookie season. Pitts never played with Ridder as he was injured before that switch happened.
The Falcons are still going to be a run-heavy offense, but they should feature Pitts more this season. He had his best game of 2022 at home against Carolina when he had 80 yards and a touchdown.
Pitts only caught 2-of-8 passes for 28 yards in the Carolina rematch, but that game was played in rain and with Marcus Mariota playing terrible football. Ridder should be better in the dome, and the Falcons will get their tight end involved again. Take his low over and take advantage of the low expectations here. Pitts is a good tight end who just needs more targets.
NFL Prop Pick: Kyle Pitts Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at U.S. Bank Stadium
T.J. Hockenson (Minnesota Vikings)
- Over 4.5 Receptions
Minnesota’s season ended in the playoffs after Kirk Cousins threw a very short pass to tight end T.J. Hockenson, who had no real chance to convert a 4th-and-8. Let’s hope for some more quick, possibly ineffective passes to Hockenson as Cousins prepares for an aggressive Todd Bowles defense that still has talent.
We know Justin Jefferson will draw a lot of attention, but Adam Thielen is gone as a reliable No. 2 wideout, so that job is up to rookie Jordan Addison. But it was Hockenson who had Cousins’ eyes often down the stretch, including 10 catches in that playoff loss to the Giants.
Hockenson also had 13 catches in Week 16 against the Giants and 7 catches against the Packers a week later.
The Buccaneers did allow the 6th-most fantasy points to tight ends last year despite playing 6 games against a division that barely featured any tight ends.
Until we see how much Addison can contribute as a rookie right away, we are going to trust on Cousins to lean on his tight end in matchups like this.
NFL Prop Pick: T.J. Hockenson Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) at Bet365