Week 10 in college football is approaching! Here are a few last-minute bets from our AI Model to think about!
Picks Summary
- Maryland +9.5 (-110) at UniBet
- New Mexico State -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- UTEP +8.5 (-110) at Bet365
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at SECU Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Maryland Terrapins will lose to Penn State by seven points at home. At Unibet, we can get the Terrapins at +9.5 against the spread.
The Penn State offense has shown its true colors recently. The Nittany Lions only scored 12 points against Ohio State and managed to score 33 points against Indiana, thanks mainly to its defense. However, the offense hasn’t impressed recently behind Drew Allar. There’s a lot to clean up.
Allar has thrown 16 touchdowns and one interception. But he hasn’t always been accurate. He’s completed just over 61% of passes and has had multiple games with an under 50% passing completion percentage.
Still, the Nittany Lions have been dominant on the defensive end, despite not tackling consistently.
The Battle in the Trenches
Maryland’s defense is almost as good. The Terps don’t have a super reliable pass rush. But the secondary is elite, and the tackling is much better than Penn State’s. The Nittany Lions will look to run the ball with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. They’ll have success on the ground, but Maryland’s offense should have success, too, with a veteran quarterback like Taulia Tagovailoa under center.
He’s thrown for 19 touchdowns and can easily catch Penn State off guard for a play or two.
Let’s back Maryland to cover the big spread at home.
NCAAF Pick: Maryland +9.5 (-110) via UniBet
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. New Mexico State Aggies
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at Aggie Memorial Stadium
Our AI Model believes New Mexico State will earn a 12-point victory on Saturday. With the spread sitting at just -3 for the Aggies, taking New Mexico against the spread is the play.
One team is about to be bowl-eligible. The other isn’t.
Pavia’s Exceptional Performance
New Mexico State sits at 6-3 on the season with Diego Pavia under center. He’s thrown for 17 touchdowns and only five interceptions while accumulating nearly 1,900 yards in the air this season. He’s been a pleasant surprise for the Aggies.
Pavia has also rushed the ball for a team-leading 592 yards for another five touchdowns. He’s led the team to over six yards per rush this season.
A Vulnerable Defense
On the other hand, Middle Tennessee has not only struggled against the run defensively. But they’ve also struggled to tackle at a high rate. The secondary and coverage are also pretty spotty for the Blue Raiders. The Blue Raiders have allowed 4.44 yards per attempt this season and have allowed nearly 2,000 yards passing in eight games.
Meanwhile, the offense has averaged 23.8 points per game, while the defense has allowed over 33 points per game. The Blue Raiders have lost four of their last five games, allowing at least 31 points in all of those losses.
New Mexico State will be another team that will earn at least 31 points against the Blue Raiders in this matchup.
NCAAF Pick: New Mexico State -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. UTEP Miners
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 09:00 PM EDT at Sun Bowl Stadium
The AI Model suggests Western Kentucky will earn a three-point win on the road against UTEP. However, UTEP is +8.5 against the spread. As long as UTEP keeps this game a one-score game, UTEP will cover.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are led by Austin Reed, who has thrown 20 touchdowns and five interceptions as a senior in the program.
He’s been solid. However, the rest of the team hasn’t performed at a high level. The Hilltoppers have earned 4.19 yards rushing per attempt while allowing nearly five yards per attempt.
They’ve also missed countless tackles and aren’t very good against the run on the defensive end. They’ve earned nine interceptions and 18 sacks in eight games, which is about 2.25 sacks per game.
The Defensive
But while Western Kentucky has done well limiting sacks on their end, UTEP’s defensive line is one of the most powerful units in college football.
UTEP has earned 22 sacks and five tackles for a loss per game. The secondary hasn’t played at a high level, but the pass rush has allowed the defense to at least make some plays.
They’re also led by Cade McConnell, who has thrown for nearly 700 yards since making his starting debut for UTEP in late September. McConnell just added over 200 yards passing against Sam Houston State in a 37-34 win.
The Running Game
The Miners will want to run the football as much as they can against Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers can’t stop the run, and the Miners have been effective rushing the football with Deion Hankins. He’s added 5.5 yards per carry on 123 attempts this year.
Once he gets going, the whole offense will start to click against Western Kentucky. I like the Miners to at least cover the spread. I think they can also win outright.
NCAAF Pick: UTEP +8.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
