Each week throughout the college football season, OddsTrader scours the college odds board and highlights three of the biggest potential upsets for that week’s NCAAF slate. These are underdogs that will not only cover the spread but are poised to pull the outright victory.
Let’s check out the college odds board in Week 10 and keep cashing our tickets!
Picks Summary
- Boise State ML (+145)
- USC ML (+145)
- Vanderbilt ML (+375)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 10:00 PM EDT at Valley Children’s Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Boise State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Fresno State.
- Boise State is 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against a Mountain West opponent.
- Fresno State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games.
Boise State is coming off their stingiest defensive performance of the season with a 32-7 victory over Wyoming, covering as 4½ point home chalk with ease. The Broncos held the Cowboys to 85 passing and 27 yards rushing yards for a mere 112 total yards.
While Boise was flexing defensively last week, Fresno State was forced to mount a spectacular third-quarter rally after falling behind to UNLV by 10 points at the half. The final score saw the Bulldogs claim a 31-24 victory but failing to cover for the fourth consecutive game.
Ironically, Fresno State’s only loss of the season was to Wyoming, a team that Boise State crushed just last week. I believe the Dawgs are a paper tiger and Boise’s 21st-ranked rushing offense, averaging over 195 yards per game, will ultimately tell the tale in this one.
Watch the Broncos buck the Bulldogs and win this one outright!
NCAAF Pick: Boise State +3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NCAAF Pick: Boise State ML (+145) at Bet365
Washington Huskies vs. USC Trojans
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 7:30 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Stat Trifecta
- Washington is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against USC.
- Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in Week 10.
- USC is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home.
USC escaped with a 50-49 win over California last week after dropping a 34-32 decision to Utah the week before. The Trojans have had three weeks of trying times as their offense continues to click, but their defense struggles to stick.
Washington sits atop the Pac-12 with a perfect 5-0 conference record and is 8-0 overall entering this pivotal matchup against their chief rivals this season. In their last outing, the Huskies ran into a plucky Stanford squad and never even sniffed a cover as 27½ point road favorites, instead settling for a 42-33 victory.
The public is down on the Trojans and with good reason. Caleb Williams, USC’s star quarterback and reigning Heisman winner, looked dazed and confused three weeks ago against Notre Dame in his team’s 48-20 loss. Yet he rebounded with two passing and two rushing touchdowns last week while tossing for 369 yards in USC’s one-point win over the Golden Bears.
I realize USC’s defense is atrocious, but Washington is all pass and no run. The Huskies rank No. 1 in passing and 119th in rushing which means the Trojans know exactly what’s coming at them and won’t have to brace for the ground attack. If they can limit Washington, even a bit, the Trojans and their 2nd ranked scoring attack, averaging 45.7 points per game, will outscore the Huskies in this one.
NCAAF Pick: USC +3 ½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NCAAF Pick: USC ML (+145) at Bet365
Auburn Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 4:00 PM EDT at FirstBank Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Auburn is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games on the road.
- Auburn is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
- Vanderbilt is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games played in Week 10.
Auburn broke their four-game skid last week when they defeated Mississippi State, 27-13, last week and covered for just the second time in seven games. Junior quarterback, Payton Thorne, had three passing touchdowns and threw for 230 yards while Jarquez Hunter rumbled 144 yards on an 8.5 yards per carry average.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt was doing what they do best this season – losing. The Commodores have dropped seven straight, including last week’s 33-7 drubbing by conference foe Ole Miss. It should be noted that Auburn also lost to the Rebels this season by the score of 28-21 two weeks ago.
So, if Vandy is this bad, then why are we predicting an upset? Because Auburn is going to come into this one flat. They had a badly needed win against a barely mediocre team in front of the fan friendlies last week. Now they travel to Nashville on Vanderbilt’s Homecoming Weekend and are expected to win by a few touchdowns.
Well, let’s understand that the Tigers average just 26.8 points per game while the Commodores score 25.7 PPG. Vanderbilt has a better passing offense, ranked 41st and averaging over 255 yards per game versus Auburn’s 123rd-ranked passing attack averaging just over 138 yards per contest.
I see Vandy hanging within the margins and perhaps pulling a big upset here. At moneyline odds of +375, they just might be worth a few bucks.
NCAAF Pick: Vanderbilt +12 ½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NCAAF Pick: Vanderbilt ML (+375) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
