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Week 11 NCAA College Football Best Bets: Can USC Upset Oregon?

From the Big Easy to Tinseltown we go in search of winning college football picks for Week 11, with a stop in between at Aggieland for an SEC battle of underachievers.

Picks Summary


Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Tulane Green Wave

Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Yulman Stadium


One of three teams with unbeaten AAC records, the Tulane Green Wave can’t let their guard down against a Tulsa team even though the Golden Hurricane drags a 4-game skid down to the Big Easy for one of the early boots on Saturday’s college football betting board.

Hurricane Own 13-6 Advantage in Rivalry

Tulane scored a nice 27-13 win and cover last year in Tulsa where the Green Wave were giving up 6½ at sharp sportsbooks. It was the Golden Hurricane turning the tables with a road win a year before that, coming out on top 20-13 in overtime as 3-point chalk.

The last three meetings never reached the totals, but three of the last four played in New Orleans got past the marks. Tulsa is 4-5 O/U on the year while Tulane is 2-7 O/U.

Teams Combined 5-12-1 ATS

Tulane moved to 5-0 in the American Athletic Conference standings – and up one notch to No. 20 in both conventional polls – with a 13-10 decision at East Carolina last week. The defense was outstanding while the offense struggled to score despite moving the chains.

Tulsa, meanwhile, blew a 17-point lead at home and fell to Charlotte 33-26 in overtime. It was the fourth consecutive defeat for the Golden Hurricane who were laying 4½.

Neither team is very good at putting points up on the board, and the trend toward the ‘under’ in recent meetings is a safer bet than expecting either the Green Wave or the Golden Hurricane to procure an ATS win.

NCAAF Pick: Under 53½ (-108) at Unibet


Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Kyle Field


Time is running out for Mississippi State to become bowl-eligible, and Texas A&M cannot afford another loss. That sets the stage ahead of the Bulldogs and Aggies getting together under the lights in College Station.

Totals Split Last 8 Matchups

Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) is among the shops carrying Texas A&M as 18½-point chalk, with a few others bumping it up to a level 19. Saturday’s total is set at 44½-45.

Mississippi State owns the all-time lead in the rivalry at 9-7, as well as a 6-5 edge as SEC opponents after winning and covering the last two years. The Bulldogs were getting a touchdown from the oddsmakers two years ago at Kyle Field, and pulled off a 26-22 upset that just made it past a 45-point total.

Aggies 3-8-1 ATS Last 12 SEC Home Dates

Without QB Will Rogers the last three games and tailback Jo’Quavious Marks the last two, Mississippi State’s offense has been ice cold. The Bulldogs have scored just one TD the last three games, and will be going up against a stout A&M defense.

That defense was a bit shaky last week in a loss to Ole Miss, letting the Rebels amass over 500 yards in the 38-35 setback. It was Texas A&M’s third loss in the last four games. Look for A&M to get its sixth dubya, but the Bulldogs plus the points are the smart pick.

NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State +19 (-109) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)


USC Trojans vs. Oregon Ducks

Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 10:30 PM ET at Autzen Stadium


Having fallen to front-running Washington, both USC and Oregon would love a rematch with the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship. But first, the Trojans and Ducks must settle things between one another in one of the final tilts on the Week 11 NCAAF odds card.

‘Dogs Cover 5 of Last 7 Meetings

Despite having the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, USC is a 15-point underdog on the NCAAF odds, with 73½ for the total.

It’s nice to have the Trojans and Ducks clash regardless of the situation, with Saturday’s skirmish being the first since 2020 and only the third since 2016. Oregon has won the last two, and won and covered 3 of the last 4 in Eugene, but USC holds the rivalry lead at 38-22 with 2 ties.

Ducks 1st, Trojans 3rd in Pac-12 for Total Offense

Southern Cal is out of the top 25 for the first time in the young Lincoln Riley era, and the season-long struggles on defense finally cost DC Alex Grinch his job this week. The Trojans are near the bottom in several defensive categories, and that doesn’t bode well in advance of facing an Oregon team that is solid on both sides of the ball.

Grinch’s absence isn’t going to suddenly make USC defenders better tacklers, but the Trojans will still stay inside the number.

NCAAF Pick: USC +15 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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