Our AI Model has added a bunch of selections for this week’s college football slate. Here are three bets that I agree with for Week 11.
Picks Summary
- Miami +14.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Arkansas -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Ole Miss-Georgia Over 59 (-110) at Unibet
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 03:30 PM EST at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Miami Hurricanes will only lose to the Florida State Seminoles by two points on the road. As 14.5-point underdogs, the Hurricanes are a sneaky play on Saturday.
If you look at the numbers analytically, you’d be surprised that Miami was a 14.5-point underdog. The Hurricanes match up well against the Seminoles and probably have some of the best analytical numbers in college football, not just the ACC.
But after a couple of bone-headed decisions and some really poor mistakes, the Hurricanes are 6-3 and not playing to the level that they’re capable of playing.
It falls on the coaching staff mainly. They’ve lost three of their last five games but haven’t lost any by over 14.
Miami’s Defensive Prowess
Miami’s run defense is superb. They’ve also converted on more tackles than Florida State this season. The only area where the Seminoles are better is in coverage. The Hurricanes are even the better-rushing team and have out-played the Seminoles in pass protection this season.
Tyler Van Dyke needs to limit turnovers. But if he can do that and lead Miami to a few touchdowns, the Hurricanes should at least cover the 14.5-point spread.
Take the Hurricanes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a straight-up upset.
NCAAF Pick: Miami +14.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Auburn Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 04:00 PM EST at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Our AI Model believes Arkansas will earn a home win against Auburn, 29-24, on Saturday. With Arkansas sitting at -3, the value is on the Razorbacks at home.
The Auburn Tigers are one win away from earning a bowl game this season. But they’ll have to get through Arkansas on the road.
Arkansas’ Form
The Razorbacks most recently ended a long losing streak with a 39-36 win over Florida on the road. Arkansas has a lot of offensive talent, but it’s been inconsistent this year.
Seeing 39 points on the board from them last weekend is encouraging. K.J. Jefferson has thrown for 1,802 yards with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Meanwhile, he also leads the team in rushing with 292 yards on 129 carries.
The run game is weak for Arkansas, but the Razorbacks added 226 yards on the ground in their last game against the Gators. So it’s starting to come around.
Questionable Quarterback for Auburn
Meanwhile, Auburn’s on a two-game winning streak with wins against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. That’s nothing to get excited about. Mississippi State’s star quarterback has been injured, and Vanderbilt is the worst team in the SEC.
The Tigers have had to rely on Payton Thorne at quarterback, who has a 60.9 QBR with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s played his two best games in the wins against Miss State and Vanderbilt, but when he faces a more difficult defense, he’ll return to struggling.
Therefore, we’ll back Arkansas at -3 at home.
NCAAF Pick: Arkansas -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Sanford Stadium
The AI Model suggests Ole Miss and Georgia will combine to score 67 points in Saturday’s SEC matchup. With the total at just 59 on UniBet, the Over looks to be the plat.
The Ole Miss Rebels are 8-1 on the season with an important matchup against Georgia on Saturday. No team has beaten the Georgia Bulldogs in the regular season since November of 2020.
But while it seems like beating Georgia is impossible, the Bulldogs haven’t played a difficult schedule. A game against Ole Miss will easily be Georgia’s biggest season test.
The Rebels have added 38.8 points per game while averaging nearly seven yards per play. Jaxson Dart has led the team with 2,467 yards and 16 passing touchdowns. He’s also limited turnovers to four interceptions.
And while Quinshon Judkins struggled to begin the year, he’s now added 100 or more rushing yards in each of his last three games. Judkins has also scored at least one touchdown in every game this year but one.
Georgia’s Lineup
Georgia’s defense is supreme, but it’s not like it was a couple of years ago. The pass rush isn’t nearly as effective, and the run defense has had a few hiccups this year.
On the other hand, Georgia is led by Carson Beck, who has produced as well as Jaxson Dart this season. Beck has 16 passing touchdowns with four interceptions, to go along with over 2,700 yards in the air.
He’s without his top target, Brock Bowers, but Ladd McConkey has stepped up for the Bulldogs in Bowers’ absence.
Beck is getting solid protection from the offensive line. That offensive line has also played well in the run game, helping Daijun Edwards earn 633 yards on the ground on 111 carries this season. Edwards has eight touchdowns.
Point-Heavy Showdown Expected
So while both defenses have performed well, the offenses have more to offer. Ole Miss has averaged 38.8 points per game, while Georgia has scored 39.3 points per game.
Don’t be surprised if this game starts to creep up into the 40’s on Saturday. Take the Over. I’m with the AI Model here.
NCAAF Pick: Over 59 (-110) at Unibet
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
