We’ve got more AI picks for this week’s college football slate. In the month of November, there are plenty of upsets. Will we cash in on one on Saturday?
- Duke -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Air Force -3.5 (-110) at Unibet
- UCF (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 03:00 PM ET at Scott Stadium
Our AI Model likes the Duke Blue Devils to earn a 32-21 win against Virginia on Saturday. As 4-point favorites, there’s clear value in Duke on the road.
The Duke Blue Devils found their new quarterback. With Riley Leonard out for the year, Duke tried Henry Belin IV at quarterback first, but he didn’t work out. However, next up was Grayson Loftis, who led Duke to an overtime loss against North Carolina.
He completed 16-of-28 from the field and added three passing touchdowns with no interceptions. He’s probably the best thrower on Duke. Leonard was more known for rushing, which is likely why North Carolina’s defense was caught off guard.
Loftis will take on a pesky Virginia defense, but the Cavaliers have been inconsistent all season long, sitting at 2-8 this season.
On the other hand, Duke’s secondary is really good. The pass rush will also get to the speedy Anthony Colandrea. Colandrea has been good for Virginia. He’s just playing behind a terrible offensive line and has to run for his life almost every play.
The man just threw for over 300 yards against Louisville, rushed for another 89 yards, and still lost. That’s how bad the Virginia defense has been this year.
Let’s take Duke at -4.
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 03:30 PM ET at Falcon Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Air Force will defeat UNLV 37-15 at home. As 3.5-point favorites, taking Air Force is a no-brainer on Saturday.
We’ve got a matchup between two 8-2 squads in the Mountain West.
Air Force began the season 8-0 but has lost two straight to the Army and Hawaii. It’s been a letdown for the Air Force recently, but personally, I still think the Falcons are an extremely talented team that can win ten games.
Air Force should find offense against UNLV. UNLV’s defense has allowed 24.3 points per game but 124.5 yards on the ground. They’ve got a poor turnover differential compared to the Air Force too.
The Falcons will likely win the turnover battle and have held teams to 86 yards on the ground this season. Meanwhile, UNLV has added 197.2 yards on the ground. Those numbers won’t get as high against the Falcons. Air Force is super disciplined in the run game and has an awesome secondary to go with it.
Lastly, UNLV’s run blocking hasn’t been up to par. When they have to take on this fierce Air Force defense in the run game, the Rebels won’t open up holes and earn big gains against this Air Force squad.
Take the Air Force against the spread. The AI Model and I both think the Falcons will win big.
NCAAF Pick: Air Force -3.5 (-110) at Unibet
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 05:00 PM ET at Jones AT&T Stadium
The AI Model suggests UCF will defeat Texas Tech 31-29 on the road. With the UCF Knights sitting at +3, there’s value in the spread and the moneyline.
The UCF Knights are on a two-game winning streak after a dominating performance against Oklahoma State.
The Knights earned a 45-3 win at home and need just one more win to become bowl-eligible. UCF hasn’t had John Rhys Plumlee throughout the season. But he’s healthy now and playing his best football.
Plumlee has thrown 11 touchdowns with seven interceptions but still has a 73.3 QBR, the 24th in the nation. Plumlee is also a very good runner and can pick up yards on the ground. He just had 299 yards passing and 74 yards rushing against a very good Oklahoma State defense.
Texas Tech’s Offensive Challenges
On the other hand, Texas Tech has also won two straight after picking up a 16-13 win over Kansas on the road.
The win for the Red Raiders was big. They’re also one game away from a bowl game. But the offense didn’t have much success behind Behren Morton. He only threw for 176 yards and escaped Kansas because the Jayhawks were onto their third quarterback, who was a freshman.
UCF has the edge everywhere on the offense end. Texas Tech won’t be able to keep up. While Texas Tech has been terrific in the tackling department, UCF’s secondary is way better than Texas Tech’s. That’s going to go a long way. Take the Knights here.
NCAAF Pick: UCF Knights (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.