The NFL’s Week 12 schedule has another stunningly low under in Patriots-Giants, but would it surprise anyone if the bottom two scoring teams in the NFL struggled to score? We also have some key NFC divisional matchups, including the Rams-Cardinals and the first huge game in the NFC South between the Saints and Falcons.
We reviewed the OddsTrader computer picks and found 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at top-rated sportsbooks for Week 12.
Picks Summary
- Patriots-Giants Under 33.5 Points (-109) at BetRivers
- Rams-Cardinals Under 44.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Saints-Falcons Under 42 (-109) at BetRivers
Patriots, Giants Have Seen Better Days
The New England Patriots and New York Giants have plenty of connections over the decades, including Bill Belichick’s coaching past. They also played in two classic Super Bowls, but those games were played when these teams were experiencing better days.
Context is also very important. Super Bowl 42 was a 17-14 game with 31 points, but it was one of the best games ever in seeing the Giants end New England’s 18-0 season with a loss. If the 2023 Giants and Patriots played a 17-14 game, it will likely be ridiculed and glossed over the Sunday slate.
But that’s what happens when you come in with 2-8 and 3-8 records. The Patriots are a 3-point favorite with a total of 33.5 points. We are eyeing up that under, because as you saw last week in Steelers-Browns (O/U 32.5), nothing is too low for some teams this season.
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
New England’s Struggling Offense
In case you forgot about the Patriots after their bye week, the last we saw of them was a 10-6 loss in Germany to the Colts. The good news is the Patriots stopped Indy’s streak of scoring 20 points in every game this season. The bad news is the Patriots threw 2 of the worst interceptions of any team this year, and they got one from each quarterback they have to decide to play this week.
It looked like the Mac Jones era might have ended had Bailey Zappe been able to lead a game-winning touchdown drive after Belichick benched Jones following his interception in the red zone. But Zappe did not spark the offense as Belichick hoped, and he ended the game with maybe the worst fake spike interception in NFL history.
It looks like things are back to Jones now, but this is an offense with a lousy wide receiver group, and they do not get any YAC or separation. The running game is inconsistent and the offensive line is putrid.
There are no redeeming qualities about this offense, and Belichick knows it. His days are numbered in New England, which has the worst record in the AFC right now.
The Giants have not been great on defense this year, but they love to blitz and should have some success against Jones doing that. The Giants also held Buffalo to 14 points, and they just made Washington turn the ball over 6 times a week ago. This defense is inconsistent and volatile, but the New England offense is ill-prepared to cause any threat.
Tommy DeVito: One of the Goodfellas?
In a season with so much bad quarterback play, Tommy DeVito has a weird role as the 3rd-string quarterback turned starter for the Giants due to injury. DeVito threw 3 touchdown passes against Washington last week, but he also took 9 sacks.
In fact, DeVito’s sack rate is 21.6%, which is astronomically high. You can bet that even with a weak defense of his own, Belichick is going to exploit this and rack up a lot of sacks in this game to stall drives. His defense is also less likely to give up blown coverages and big plays to DeVito.
The Giants have Saquon Barkley in the backfield but he has been inconsistent. He was better last season for Brian Daboll. It is hard to imagine the Giants can just lean on Barkley to hide DeVito from the incoming sack fest and expect to score 20 points again this week.
Remember, the Giants just scored more than 17 points for only the 2nd time all season last week. This team has yet to score more than 14 points in a home game this season.
The Pick
Can you even go too low for this game with the total? The Giants average a league-low 13.5 points per game. The Patriots are just ahead of them at 14.1 points per game. We’ll gladly take the under, and the computer score predicts an interesting finish for this one if it happens this way.
Score Prediction: Patriots 17 – Giants 15
NFL Pick: Under 33.5 (-109) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
Rams and Cardinals Getting Their Kickers Warmed Up?
The Arizona Cardinals are 1-1 since Kyler Murray returned from his torn ACL recovery. The Rams pulled off a 13-point comeback against Seattle to complete a sweep last week. They will attempt to do the same to Arizona this week.
The Rams are a 1-point road favorite with a total of 44.5 points. We see a very close spread on this one that could swing back to favoring Arizona even. We’ll focus on the under instead.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
Week 6 Recap: Rams 26, Cardinals 9
When these teams met in Week 6, there were 7 field goals made between them. The Rams actually trailed at halftime before dominating the 2nd half on their way to a 26-9 win.
One thing Arizona did better than anyone since 2021 was shut down Cooper Kupp, holding him under 70 yards in 4 games in previous seasons. But when they met in Week 6, Kupp had a huge game with 7 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown.
But in the 4 games since, Kupp has 9 catches for 109 yards, the worst month of his NFL career. He left Sunday’s win over the Seahawks with an injury after only playing 18 snaps. It is unclear if he’ll be good to go in this one, but he is not playing at a high level right now.
The Rams are only averaging 19.5 points per game this season. Their 28 field goal attempts are tied for the 2nd most in the league.
Cardinals Still Figuring Things Out
Kyler Murray has provided some sparks to the Arizona offense upon his return, but even with James Conner also making his return to the backfield, the results have not been great yet. Murray’s 49.9 QBR would be the lowest of his career, Conner hasn’t found the end zone in either game back, and Murray’s connection with Hollywood Brown seems to be missing in this offense.
But Murray can scramble with the best of them, and some of his best plays have been runs. But he only led Arizona to 16 points in Houston last week, a game that turned into a defensive struggle down the stretch.
Maybe coming back to beat Atlanta the previous week wasn’t the best litmus test for Arizona, which still only has 1 win on the season and has already lost by 17 points to these Rams, a team that usually owns Arizona under Sean McVay.
The Pick
The last time we saw Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray face off, that game ended 20-12 with a bunch of field goals last season too. These offenses are not good or healthy enough right now to trust them to score a lot of points.
The prediction was actually a little higher than expected as this feels like the best-case scenario for the game to be watchable and exciting through the end. We’ll trust the total and take the under here as Murray tries to adjust to his new coaching staff.
Score Prediction: Rams 22 – Cardinals 20
NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
The Saints-Falcons Rivalry Resumes
It was likely going to come down to New Orleans vs. Atlanta for the NFC South this year, and that is playing out so far. This is the first huge matchup between the teams that should go a long way in deciding who wins this division. Both teams had a bye week in Week 11.
The Falcons are going back to starting quarterback Desmond Ridder for this one, which is probably the right call. But the Saints are still a 1-point road favorite with a total of 42 points. We (again) are feeling the under.
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Are the Saints Collapsing?
If the Saints (5-5) are going to turn this around and win the division, it will have to be with the defense stepping up when they play these lesser quarterbacks like Ridder (Falcons), Bryce Young (Panthers), Tony DeVito (Giants), and getting at least a split with Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield.
You cannot rely on Derek Carr and this offense to get the job done. Carr is still in the concussion protocol even after the team’s bye, so it is not a guarantee he will play this Sunday. Jameis Winston has plenty of starting experience against Atlanta, and he could even be the better option if it means he will use wide receiver Chris Olave, who Carr does not have good chemistry with.
Carr only ranks 20th in QBR this season. He is missing Michael Thomas with another injury, he doesn’t get the most out of Olave, and the team’s tight end play and running game are inconsistent.
This is a troubled offense right now, and it is hard to see the Saints scoring a lot in Atlanta in this one.
Is Desmond Ridder the Guy?
Ridder is only ranked No. 26 in QBR this season, but he has made some timely plays for this offense. He just has to cut down on the fumbling, which has been a big issue.
But coach Arthur Smith also has major usage issues with these young skill players from tight end Kyle Pitts to rookie back Bijan Robinson. They don’t feature Drake London as much as they should either. The offense was more effective in the 1st half of last season when Marcus Mariota was the quarterback and Smith had a clearer path for what kind of offense he wanted to run. It was very run heavy. This year, the Falcons are struggling to establish an identity.
Ridder has not led the Falcons to more than 23 points since the first 2 games of the season when Atlanta was 2-0, which feels like an eternity ago this season.
The Pick
These games are usually tight. We saw rookie Ridder lose a 21-18 game to the Saints last year. That could be the score again, but the computer returned a more traditional 20-17, and that is a solid base to work with for this game that should feature few touchdowns.
Only a surprise announcement late in the week that Winston is starting would make me change my pick to the over. With Winston, you get excitement. Big plays for touchdowns, 3rd down conversions, and also back-breaking picks that give the other team field position and points. But if it’s Carr vs. Ridder, we’ll stick with the under.
Score Prediction: Falcons 20 – Saints 17
NFL Pick: Under 42 (-109) at BetRivers
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
