The NFL’s Week 13 schedule has a solid Sunday night game with Jordan Love matching up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Green Bay. We also are looking at a rematch between the Colts and Titans, a rebound game for the Lions in New Orleans, an NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Buccaneers, and if we can maybe get a touchdown in a Monday Night Football game in Jacksonville.
- Evan Engram (JAX) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+240) at Bet365
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Zack Moss (IND) Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
- Rachaad White (TB) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) at Bet365
- Jordan Love (GB) Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Monday, December 04, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Yes, we are once again trying to will Evan Engram to a touchdown in 2023 as this is getting out of hand now that it’s Week 13.
- Engram is ranked 15th in the NFL with 64 catches this year, yet he still has 0 receiving touchdowns.
- The next closest player is Jahmyr Gibbs, a running back with 41 catches and no touchdowns through the air (he has several rushing).
- Jets tight end Tyler Conklin has 39 catches and 0 touchdowns, but he also plays for the Jets, so touchdowns are rare there.
- Engram’s 524 receiving yards are the most for a player with 0 receiving touchdowns in 2023. Conklin is the next closest with 414 yards.
This is starting to reach Diontae Johnson levels, a nod to the Pittsburgh wide receiver who set records last year for having 0 receiving touchdowns despite 147 targets and 86 catches.
Engram is on pace to be just the 5th tight end or wide receiver to have at least 65 catches in a season without any touchdown catches. If we just base it on the first 11 games in a season, then Engram joins Keyshawn Johnson (2001 Buccaneers) as the only receivers to have 60 catches without a touchdown catch through 11 games in NFL history. Johnson finished that season with 1 touchdown on 106 catches.
Engram is right in that Johnson & Johnson club. But speaking of Diontae, his Steelers had a strong game from tight end Pat Freiermuth against the Bengals last week. While Freiermuth didn’t catch a touchdown, he had 9 catches for 120 yards and was consistently open down the seams. Maybe the Jaguars can get Engram some open looks this week.
The Bengals have allowed 779 receiving yards to tight ends this year – only Denver (783) has allowed more. A total of 4 touchdowns by tight ends have been allowed by the Bengals.
Last week against Houston, Engram ran a great route in the end zone and Trevor Lawrence threw a horrible pass that missed him. Lawrence has also rushed for 3 touchdowns in the last 2 games, so he has been taking away from his receivers in the red zone.
Maybe that can finally change this week.
We promise this is the last time we’ll bring this one up this year. But Engram is long overdue for a score, and the Bengals are a good opponent for him to do it against. Monday night scoring has been pitiful, but even in the Bears-Vikings game last week that produced 1 touchdown, at least it was the tight end on the favored team (T.J. Hockenson) who caught it.
Let’s get one for Engram before he goes down in history for the worst tight end season at producing touchdowns in NFL history.
NFL Pick: Evan Engram Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+240) at Bet365
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Simply put, the Detroit Lions need to stop turning the ball over. They have 7 giveaways in their last 2 games, and Jared Goff is largely responsible, with 3 interceptions against Chicago and 3 lost fumbles against Green Bay.
The Lions are still moving the ball up and down the field, but turnovers and starting 0-for-4 on 4th down against Green Bay killed their output in those games, both of which they nearly lost.
But they get a chance at a reeling Saints team that isn’t playing very well right now. The Saints allowed rookie back Bijan Robinson of the Falcons to score a pair of touchdowns last week, so David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have to be licking their chops to get this team next.
Gibbs had scored a touchdown in 4 straight games before not having any in the Green Bay loss. But he was still heavily involved with 11 carries for 54 yards, and he had 4 catches on 8 targets for 19 yards. The Lions are learning how to use Gibbs and Montgomery together, but both are scoring options for Detroit. We just like the value in Gibbs’ odds better.
Maybe the key to Goff getting his turnovers down is to lean on the running backs more with safer, easier plays. The offensive line also needs a bounce-back game after giving up too much pressure last week. Look for the Lions to play better and get their young back some scoring opportunities in this one.
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
With Jonathan Taylor out again, Zack Moss has another huge opportunity against the Titans. When these teams met in Week 5, it was billed as a game with Derrick Henry of the Titans and the season debut of Taylor. But Moss stole the show with 23 carries for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Moss has not been a 1-game wonder for the Colts either. He had 122 rushing yards against the Ravens in an upset win in Week 3. He averaged 111.3 rushing yards per game in his first 4 starts this year, but his production has taken a step back as Taylor returned at full speed.
But Taylor is out this week. Alas, we see a good opportunity to zig while others zag here. Instead of counting on Moss to repeat his rushing success and hit his high over in rushing yards (77.5), take a look at his receiving line instead. It’s only 17.5 yards.
In 5 starts this year, Moss has gone over 17.5 receiving yards in 4-of-5 games. He had 2 catches for 30 yards against the Titans in Week 5. In comparison, he has only gone over 77.5 rushing yards in 3-of-5 starts this year.
The Colts do not have a lot of established receivers who demand targets, so Moss could be a good option again as a receiver for a few productive plays.
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
For the 2nd year in a row, the Buccaneers are ranked dead last in rushing yards per carry (3.3). But they may perk up this week when facing the Carolina Panthers, who are middle of the pack (16th) in yards per carry, but they have allowed a league-worst 18 rushing touchdowns.
When you start 1-10, teams are going to have leads and run the ball at will on you. The Panthers have not always been blown out of games, but they sure do allow a lot of rushing touchdowns. They ended Tony Pollard’s touchdown drought a few weeks ago after he hadn’t scored for Dallas since Week 1.
Tyler Allgeier (Falcons), Tony Jones (Saints), Raheem Mostert (Dolphins), Kenneth Walker (Seahawks), and Derrick Henry last week (Titans) are all running backs who scored multiple touchdowns against the Panthers this year. Maybe Rachaad White can do that, but we’ll settle for just 1 score here.
Firing Frank Reich was a shocking move for the Panthers, but they are unlikely to get a big boost from that as the roster is simply too flawed.
White just rushed for a season-high 100 yards last week against the Colts, but both of Tampa Bay’s touchdowns went to Mike Evans. White scored a touchdown in 3 straight games before that, so let’s take advantage of the bad division opponent at home and expect White to find the end zone this week with better-than-even odds.
NFL Pick: Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) at Bet365
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at Lambeau Field
Jordan Love gets another crack at the Chiefs, the team he made his 1st NFL start against in 2021. He struggled that day as expected, finishing with 190 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in a 13-7 loss. Oddly enough, with 20 total points, that remains the lowest-scoring game that Patrick Mahomes has played in with the Chiefs.
One thing Love also did in that game was run the ball 5 times for 23 yards. We haven’t seen a ton of rushing from him this year in Green Bay, but he had a great designed run in Detroit on Thanksgiving on his way to tying his season high with 39 rushing yards. It was the 4th time this year he rushed for at least 34 yards, so he has shown some ability to run well.
Overall, Love has rushed for over 14.5 yards in 7-of-12 career starts, so better than a coin flip. The Chiefs have more sacks than all but 3 defenses this year, and they cover better than a lot of defenses, so Love could have some scrambling opportunities in this one. He needs to take them instead of forcing the ball into coverage.
Love is playing with more confidence after a few strong games in a row now. Look for him to be loose at home and do whatever it takes to keep up with Mahomes. The Chiefs have already allowed 5 mobile quarterbacks to rush for over 25 yards this year. Let’s look for Love to be the 6th on that list.
NFL Pick: Jordan Love Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bet365
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