The NFL’s Week 14 schedule has 4 prime-time games, including a doubleheader this Monday. But the highlight game of the week is clearly Sunday night in Dallas.
- On Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys can equal the Philadelphia Eagles in record with a win.
- On Monday night, the Packers are in New York to take on the Giants while the Dolphins are hosting the Titans in Miami.
- On Thursday night, the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers will try to find the end zone.
We made our top pick for each prime-time game in Week 14, and you can find the best betting odds at the top sportsbooks using OddsTrader.
Picks Summary
- Cowboys -3.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Packers -6.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Titans +14 (-110) at Bet365
- Patriots +6 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cowboys Get Revenge?
While the Cowboys lost 28-23 in Philadelphia, they were very close to pulling that one out in Week 9. You could argue that since that game, Dallas has only gotten stronger while the Eagles are struggling, trailing by double digits in the last 3 games.
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 53 points. It has the feeling of either one of the most dramatic games of the season, or a blowout win by the Cowboys. Which side do we lean towards?
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Dak Prescott’s Time?
While Jalen Hurts was recently the MVP favorite, that never passed the sniff test, and he has since been overtaken by Brock Purdy of the 49ers. But the quarterback playing the best of anyone right now is Dak Prescott. He took that 42-10 loss in San Francisco on the nose, but he has been lights out since, with 21 touchdowns to 2 interceptions and a 121.5 passer rating. Absolutely MVP material as he leads the Cowboys to a league-high 32.3 points per game.
Prescott has led 2 game-winning drives this season, and it was truly a game of inches in Philadelphia in that 28-23 loss where he played very well. The Cowboys repeatedly came up short in the red zone in the 4th quarter or else we could be talking about a much different playoff picture.
Prescott’s History vs. The Eagles
But Prescott has owned the Philadelphia defense since 2021. He has 14 touchdown passes to 1 interception in those 4 meetings, and he led Dallas to at least 40 points in both matchups at home in 2021 and 2022.
Last December, Prescott was incredible against a Philadelphia defense that is much better than the one we’ve watched this season. Despite taking 6 sacks, Prescott was 27-of-35 (with a few drops) for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns. He converted a 3rd-and-30 in the 4th quarter to lead a comeback win.
The Eagles were just shredded by the YAC of the 49ers with Brock Purdy passing for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns despite not completing a pass in the 1st quarter. But Prescott is playing lights out with the deep ball and attacking every portion of the field.
This should be his game to shine and perhaps his MVP moment.
Eagles Hang Around
With respect to what Detroit is doing this year, the NFC is still largely a 3-team race with the Cowboys, Eagles, and 49ers. We’ve seen Dallas struggle with the 49ers since 2021, have mixed results with Philadelphia, and the Eagles can say the same about mixed results with San Francisco. It creates some very interesting playoff scenarios when these teams almost inevitably link up again in January.
But despite the Eagles clinging onto the No. 1 seed with a 10-2 record, you can say the 9-3 Cowboys and 9-3 49ers are better teams. They are certainly more dominant teams, as the scoring differential shows with the Cowboys (+168) and 49ers (+163) both outscoring teams by over 160 points this year.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are just +41 on the scoreboard despite a 10-2 record. Interestingly enough, that +41 scoring differential ranks 167th on the list of 169 teams to win at least 10 of their first 12 games in NFL history. The Eagles are 9-1 in close games while a team like San Francisco is only 1-3. Dallas just won a close one with Seattle, but it has 7 wins by 20-plus points already.
Basically, the Eagles are likely to win this game by 1 score or get blown out by 3 scores like they did by the 49ers in a 42-19 game last week. The 49ers accomplished that despite the game having 0 turnovers. The Cowboys are great with turnovers as DaRon Bland is up to 8 interceptions now.
The Eagles have their hands full in this one.
The Pick
Technically, the Eagles are the only team to hold Dallas under 33 points since the bye week. But if you saw the 28-23 game in Philly, you saw how Dallas was inches away from a 1-yard touchdown on 4th down to Luke Schoonmaker. You saw them get 6 yards away from the win before mistakes backed them up and they came up short at the end.
The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in 11 straight home games going back to last year, which is tied for the 3rd-longest streak in NFL history. Look for Dallas to score a bunch in this one and get the stops against Hurts to cover the spread for a huge win to build confidence for a deep playoff run.
NFL Pick: Cowboys -3.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Packers Look to Keep Rolling vs. Giants
At 3-6, the Packers and Jordan Love were left for dead. But after 3 straight wins, including impressive ones over Detroit and Kansas City, the Packers are 6-6 and right back in the playoff mix behind their young quarterback.
The Packers are a 6.5-point road favorite against the Giants with a total of 37 points. Will the Packers keep rolling?
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
Monday, December 11, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Green Bay’s Turnaround
Not even a full month ago, the Packers had gone 7 straight games without scoring more than 20 points, the team’s longest drought since 1990-91, before the Brett Favre era.
But over the last 3 games, Jordan Love has turned the corner, the Packers are winning and scoring, and he has great stats with 285.7 passing yards per game, 8 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 116.9 passer rating.
Suddenly, the Packers are in business at 6-6 with the quarterback thriving, and it seems to be sparking the defense too that had a great pass rush against Jared Goff (Lions) and Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) the last 2 games. The Packers won both games as underdogs of 6 or more points.
Now Green Bay is favored heavily on the road against the Giants, but let’s not forget the Giants are struggling to score this year and have not played well on defense either. If Love continues his run and picks up the blitz of the Giants, he should hit them for big plays again. When you play the Giants, you don’t have to score much to get the win.
New York’s Struggles
The Giants have at least shown us they can still beat Washington, getting a sweep in those games, and they survived the Patriots in an ugly 10-7 game. In fact, the Giants have played in some of the ugliest games of the season as you might expect with this offense starting 3 different quarterbacks.
Rookie Tommy DeVito has shown some decent mobility and promise, but he’s really not a long-term solution as he takes sacks at an astronomical rate (21.1% of his dropbacks). His inexperience and the terrible line of the Giants factors into that number being so high, but it’s not like a bye week is going to fix those issues.
These teams met last year in London in the game where Aaron Rodgers broke his thumb. The Giants came back from a 7-point deficit in the 4th quarter, but it feels unlikely that this team can do that right now.
The Pick
The Giants have only scored more than 17 points twice this season. It feels like if the Packers just get to 23 points like they have been, they should get the job done here with the spread. Just attack this line the way they did the Chiefs and Lions, and it should result in many sacks.
NFL Pick: Packers -6.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Titans to Keep It Close?
The Titans (4-8) lost a heartbreaker to the Colts in overtime last week. It was a promising effort for rookie Will Levis. The Titans may have won without giving up back-to-back blocked punts, but they fired their special teams coordinator after that gaffe.
Mike Vrabel is a good coach as an underdog, going 10-5 ATS when he’s an underdog of at least 6 points. But he is expected to be a 14-point underdog in this one, the highest of his career in Tennessee. But can they still keep it close?
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins
Monday, December 11, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Miami vs. Bad Teams
The Dolphins, even going back to last year, have largely produced schedule-based results under coach Mike McDaniel. Their last quality win against a good opponent we knew was good going into the game was in Week 3 of the 2022 season against Buffalo. That was a 21-19 game in 90-degree weather where the Bills melted at the end of each half and lost despite outgaining the Dolphins by nearly 300 yards.
A week before that, Miami came back from 21 points down in the 4th quarter to shock the Ravens, another fortunate comeback win. The Dolphins have not fared well ever since against the good teams, going 0-3 this year and never even having a lead against the Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles.
But when facing bad teams? Miami has been rock solid, especially at home in Hard Rock Stadium with a 31-16 win over the Giants, 42-21 win over the Panthers, 31-17 win over the Patriots, 20-13 over the Raiders. But notice those last two games, the most recent home games, would not have covered a 14-point spread. It would have been a loss and a push at best.
Miami is below average with 19 giveaways on the season, and a few picks thrown by Tua Tagovailoa have been returned for touchdowns. Tyreek Hill is thriving on his way to 2,000 yards, and Miami has gotten healthy in the backfield with the return of De’Von Achane, but the Dolphins are not a lock to drop 35 every week.
The Pick
Despite what happened last Monday night in Jacksonville, scoring has usually been awful on Monday nights this year. The Bengals and Jaguars were the first teams all year to score more than 27 points on Monday night.
We have seen McDaniel in a few island games with the Dolphins. He’d be 0-6 against any spread larger than 7 points. The Titans are not a good team, but they hung in there in a 24-16 game with Baltimore in London. They have only lost by more than 14 points once in Will Levis’ 6 starts.
We’ll take the Titans to keep it close enough to get a cover by keeping the Dolphins under 30. No blocked punts this week, please.
NFL Pick: Titans +14 (-110) at Bet365
Can Belichick Beat Tomlin One Last Time?
The Patriots and Steelers used to be central figures in the AFC every year, and they met in 3 AFC Championship Games from 2001-2016. But now they are playing in a game where the total is flirting with being the lowest in any game in 30 seasons, and the Patriots are on one of the wildest 3-game losing streaks in NFL history as they have not allowed more than 10 points in any game.
You have to go back to the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to find the last team in the NFL to lose 3 in a row without giving up more than 10 points. Those Cardinals lost 4 in a row doing that too, so there is precedent here.
But this battle of backup quarterbacks should be so low on points that teasing the spread for New England might be the lock of the season. But we are not doing a teaser. We are looking at why the Patriots should cover the 6-point spread in a game with a total of 30 points (for now).
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Thursday, December 7, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
Patriots Are Playing Incredible Defense
At least we know Bill Belichick can still coach a defense. The Patriots are thriving on that side of the ball right now despite no help from its offense, and it also isn’t a run that’s been fueled by the opponent or a bunch of fluky turnovers. They are just shutting teams down in the last 3 weeks, allowing a total of 26 points.
The Patriots held the Colts to 10 points in Germany. The Colts have scored at least 20 points in every other game this season. The Colts also had just 264 yards in that game, their 2nd-lowest game this season.
The Patriots held the Giants to 10 points, and while they were facing rookie Tommy DeVito, those points came on drives that traveled just 26 and 8 yards due to interceptions by the offense putting the defense in terrible field position.
The Patriots held the Chargers and Justin Herbert to 6 points, only allowing a pair of field goals in the 2nd quarter on drives that lasted 27 and 7 yards after punt returns into New England territory.
That means the Patriots have not allowed a scoring drive longer than 27 yards since a touchdown in the 1st quarter against the Colts in Week 10. During these 3 games, the Patriots have only forced 2 takeaways, so they are shutting teams down cold and not getting any wins out of it because of the putrid offense.
Steelers Are Still a Bad Offense
There was some new hype for the Steelers after they fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada and had their first game with over 400 yards of offense since 2020. However, they only scored 16 points in Cincinnati (3 at halftime) and Kenny Pickett was noticeably less effective after the 1st quarter.
Go to Week 13 in a favorable home game against the lowly Cardinals and their no-name defense, and again the Steelers were held to 3 points in the 1st half. Pickett was injured again and left the game at the 1-yard line where the Steelers were then stuffed by Arizona, which drove 99 yards for a crushing touchdown to end the half. Pittsburgh only found the end zone one time late in an embarrassing 24-10 loss, meaning the team is averaging 13 points per game without Canada, which is worse.
The offensive issues are still there as it looks like Pittsburgh has a couple of good ideas for play calls in the 1st quarter before continuing the previously scheduled poor passing offense that kills drives and keeps the scoreboard inactive.
With Pickett (ankle) out this week, the drop-off to Mitch Trubisky isn’t steep at all. In some ways, Trubisky could even improve the offense with his vertical shots, but this is probably a bad matchup for the Steelers to have the quarterback who is more prone to turnovers. Belichick feasts on quarterback’s mistakes, and Trubisky still has a relatively high interception rate (3.1%) with the Steelers.
Trubisky faced the Patriots in Pittsburgh in Week 2 last year. In typical Pittsburgh fashion, the Steelers had 3 points at halftime and did not find the end zone until the 4th quarter in a 17-14 loss. Trubisky had 2 chances at a game-tying or game-winning drive, but he led the offense to a 3-and-out both times.
That is another area where the Steelers will miss Pickett, who is 7-4 (.636) at game-winning drive opportunities. Trubisky is only 8-19 (.296) at game-winning drive opportunities in his career.
The Pick
Points will be at a premium, and with the Steelers starting the backup quarterback known for turning the ball over and failing in the clutch instead of the starter who is surprisingly good at protecting the ball and leading clutch drives, this screams New England upset.
We won’t go that far because the Patriots might not score a point again, but it should at least help that T.J. Watt was injured on Sunday and has a quick turnaround to play Thursday night. Either way, this is a big spread for a bad Pittsburgh offense to cover against a team playing incredible defense. We’ll take the Patriots with the points for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Patriots +6 (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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