The NFL’s Week 15 schedule has a big matchup between the Cowboys and Bills, a couple of the best teams in the last few regular seasons. We also see if Saquon Barkley can find the end zone in New Orleans, Brock Purdy’s MVP campaign goes to Arizona, Baker Mayfield tries to get a win in Green Bay, and Will Levis is in action after his huge comeback win on Monday night in Miami.
For even more prop picks, make sure you bookmark the player props section on OddsTrader, and we included the best betting sites to make these player props bets for Week 15.
Picks Summary
- Saquon Barkley (NYG) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-118) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Brock Purdy (SF) Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+129) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Will Levis (TEN) Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Jake Ferguson (DAL) Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-112) at BetRivers
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Saquon Barkley – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
If the Giants are going to pull off another big upset for their 4th win in a row, they’ll need Saquon Barkley to run it well again. Barkley has gone over 80 yards on the ground in 2-of-3 games during the streak, and he also scored 2 touchdowns in a couple of games, including Monday night in Green Bay.
Barkley has 7 touchdowns in 10 games this year. He has already tied his career high with 4 receiving touchdowns in a season. Tommy DeVito has given the offense a little bit of a spark in recent weeks with high-percentage completions and cutting down on turnovers.
If the Giants can get close to the red zone, Barkley figures to be the biggest threat to touch the ball and score for them. But Barkley has also scored on a couple of touchdowns from outside the 20-yard line this year, including one on a pass from DeVito.
The Pick
The Giants are playing the best they have all season, and with their blitzing defense, it would not be a shock to see if they can get Derek Carr to suffer some turnovers that set up short fields for Barkley and the offense. With the upset in mind, we like Barkley to find the end zone this week.
NFL Pick: Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-118) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinal
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
Brock Purdy – Over 251.5 Passing Yards
People seemed to miss how close to a perfect offensive game the 49ers had earlier this season against the Cardinals. It was only a 35-16 win, but the 49ers also had just 6 offensive drives when you remove the kneel-downs at the end of each half.
But the 49ers scored a touchdown on 5-of-6 drives, only getting stopped once for a punt in the 2nd half after Brock Purdy took a big sack. But Purdy finished the game 20-of-21 for 283 yards through the air.
That means he threw 1 incomplete pass and the 49ers were only kept out of the end zone on 1 drive that day. It doesn’t get much better than that for an offense. It is also hard to say the Cardinals have improved on defense ever since that day.
The Pick
Kyle Shanahan’s offense has been hot and healthy. Purdy has gone over 251.5 yards in 6-of-7 games going into Sunday’s rematch. Before you say he’ll take a step back in a rematch in a division game, keep in mind he just went from 209 to 368 passing yards against the Seahawks in games played 17 days apart.
We’ll trust Purdy to shred this defense again, but he will probably throw more than 1 incomplete pass this time. But the 49ers should also have more than 6 possessions too.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Passing Yards Over 251.5 (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lambeau Field
Baker Mayfield – Total Passing Touchdowns
This is the 3rd December in a row that Baker Mayfield is starting a game in Lambeau Field against the Packers, and he is doing it with a 3rd different team.
In 2021, Mayfield lost 24-22 with the Browns in a nationally-televised Christmas game where he threw for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.
In 2022, Mayfield lost 24-12 with the Rams in a Monday night game where he threw for 111 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.
Still In the Hunt?
This game won’t be in front of a national audience, but it has more meaning with the Buccaneers and Packers in a playoff race. But Mayfield has had an interesting split this year where he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 6-of-7 road games. Mayfield has only thrown multiple touchdowns in 1-of-6 home games.
San Francisco was the only road trip where Mayfield didn’t complete 2 scoring tosses, and that was probably the toughest defense he has faced. This week, he gets a Green Bay defense that just allowed Tommy DeVito of the Giants to become the 1st quarterback in NFL history to complete 80% of his passes, run for 70 yards, and have no interceptions or sacks in a game.
The Pick
Mayfield has had some good looks at Joe Barry-coached defenses the last 2 years, but he is playing his best with the Bucs right now, and he has his best weapons with Mike Evans leading the way. We’re going to bank on the split to continue and for Mayfield to notch another road game with multiple touchdown throws.
NFL Pick: Baker Mayfield Passing Touchdowns Over 1.5 (+129) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
Will Levis – Total Passing Yards
Ever since his NFL debut when he threw 4 touchdown passes against Atlanta, rookie quarterback Will Levis has had a questionable rookie season. Is he the future, or is he another stop-gap before the Titans find a better quarterback?
Early on, Levis looked like a low-percentage quarterback who could hit some deep balls. Even in the Atlanta game with 4 touchdown passes, his success rate (plays gaining efficient yards based on down and distance) was very low. For the season, Levis’ passing success rate is 38.7%, which ranks 28th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks.
But do you know who ranks 29th? Zach Wilson (37.1%) of the Jets, and he just threw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Texans last week. He hung 30 points in that game that was scoreless at halftime.
That has to give Levis confidence as does becoming the first rookie quarterback to ever throw for 300 yards on Monday Night Football, leading a crazy comeback against what was supposed to be an improved Miami defense.
The Pick
Levis has weapons, renewed confidence, and a mediocre opponent in front of him at home where the Titans are averaging over 10 more points per game this year. This should be a good chance for him to throw for over 205.5 passing yards as the Titans no longer just need to feed Derrick Henry when they play Houston.
NFL Pick: Will Levis Over Passing Yards 205.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Jake Ferguson -Total Receiving Yards
Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson made some headlines this week with a look at his practice method to prepare for this game in Buffalo where he was dunking his hands in freezing water.
The problem is the weather should be great for Buffalo standards in December. It should be well above 40 degrees when this game gets going in the late afternoon window. Ferguson also went to Wisconsin, so he should be well prepared for cold weather.
But we are also starting to see the 2nd-year tight end, a 4th-round pick in 2022, thrive in this offense with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Ferguson has stepped up to replace Dalton Schultz this year as the lead tight end, and he has gone over 70 yards in back-to-back weeks.
Does the Dallas offense usually play much better at home? Yes, there is truth to that. Five of the 7 games this year where Ferguson hit 35 yards were at home. But he also had a season-high 91 yards in Philadelphia.
The Pick
Buffalo is one of the few teams that can go score for score with Dallas, so this has the potential to be a high-scoring shootout between Dak and Josh Allen. That means Ferguson should be an important target, and his impact down the seam can be huge in a game like this. We like him to go over and possibly way over again like the last few weeks.
NFL Pick: Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Over 42.5 (-112) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
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