The NFL’s Week 16 schedule ends Mondy night with a possible Super Bowl preview between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. We pick our favorite player to go over in yards in that game, and we also have picks for Browns-Texans, Lions-Vikings, Raiders-Chiefs, and Giants-Eagles.
For other prop pick ideas, make sure to bookmark the player props section on OddsTrader, and we included the top sportsbooks to make these player props for Week 16.
Picks Summary
- David Njoku (CLE) Over 49.5 Receiving Yads (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Jordan Addison (MIN) Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rashee Rice (KC) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- D’Andre Swift (PHI) Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at BetRivers
- Deebo Samuel (SF) Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetRivers
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
David Njoku – Total Receiving Yards
Do you think David Njoku is happy about having Joe Flacco as his quarterback? Njoku has gone through so many quarterbacks in Cleveland since 2017, but he has a career-high 704 yards and 5 touchdowns this year thanks in part to Flacco’s arrival.
Njoku had 104 yards and a touchdown against the Bears last week, following his best game of the season against the Jaguars with 91 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Prior to Week 14, Njoku had 1 game in his career with 90 receiving yards, so you can say he’s had 2 of the 3 best games of his career with Flacco already. He is thriving and he is a talent with the ability to produce YAC. The Browns are not loaded with weapons outside of Njoku and Amari Cooper, so these opportunities should continue to be there for him.
The Pick
The matchup is a juicy one this week too. The Texans have allowed the 2nd-most catches (91) and 3rd-most yards (875) to tight ends this year.
Njoku has hit 50 yards in 7-of-14 games, so it has been a coin flip for him this year. But Flacco is such a high-volume passer that the sportsbooks haven’t seemed to have accounted for this yet, so we think any receiving props for Njoku are a great value, especially in this matchup with Houston.
NFL Pick: David Njoku Receiving Yards Over 49.5 (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Jordan Addison – Total Receiving Yards
Jordan Addison revealed this week he had rookie goals of 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, lofty goals for a rookie who was coming to play behind Justin Jefferson. While the Jefferson hamstring injury helped Addison reach these numbers, he probably didn’t expect to play with so many different quarterbacks in 2023.
Addison is working with Nick Mullens now, and their first start together was a smashing success from a statistical perspective. Addison flashed major talent on his 2 touchdown catches in Cincinnati, and he finished the game with 111 yards, beating out Jefferson’s total (84 yards).
Pass-Happy Coach
Let’s not forget that coach Kevin O’Connell wants to run a pass-happy offense like he had with the Rams and Matthew Stafford, and how they made the playoffs last year with Kirk Cousins in Minnesota.
Mullens no doubt has flaws with turning the ball over too much, but he has moved the ball well in his career. Last week was his 5th career game with over 300 yards passing, and this is someone who has only started 18 games.
Yards are going to be there, and Addison is a great enough talent in his own right to produce alongside Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson. In fact, the Lions may focus on Jefferson enough to funnel more passes to Addison in this matchup.
The Pick
Detroit allows an above-average number of passing yards and attempts as their games tend to be higher scoring than most teams. This could turn into a little shootout, in which case any top receiver is a good bet for hitting their over. But we like the idea of Addison stacking big games with Mullens, who averages over 250 yards per start in his career.
Addison only needs 176 yards to get to his goal of 1,000 yards. We’re counting on at least 49 this week to help him on his way.
NFL Pick: Jordan Addison Receiving Yards Over 48.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, December 25, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Rashee Rice – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Don’t look now but rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice is tied for the Kansas City lead with 7 touchdowns this season. Yes, he has more touchdowns than Travis Kelce (5) in 2023. He has more touchdowns than the other wide receivers on the team combined (5).
Rice has been hot with at least 7 catches in 4 straight games. He had a season-high 107 yards in Vegas against the Raiders in Week 12. He also caught a touchdown in that game, and he has a touchdown in 3-of-4 games going into Monday.
Emerging Talent
Patrick Mahomes has been looking for a reliable wideout to emerge for him, and while rookies rarely ever contribute much to Super Bowl teams, Rice may be his answer this year. In fact, he’ll have to be as they clearly cannot rely on Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, or Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Kelce has also looked his age (34) more than ever this year, and he looks a step slow even in the red zone where he usually dominates. Rice has scored all of his touchdowns in the red zone except for his 39-yard score against the Raiders.
Let’s see if lightning can strike twice against Vegas.
The Pick
We are used to seeing the Chiefs score a ton of points against the Raiders in the Mahomes era. Rice is going to be a big part of that in this game if it happens again.
After having arguably the best game of his season against this defense a month ago, we like him to score again in this matchup as Mahomes continues looking for him as if he’s the No. 1 receiver on the whole team, even over Kelce.
NFL Pick: Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, December 25, 2023 – 04:30 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
D’Andre Swift – Total Rushing Yards
Finger-pointing is going on in Philadelphia during what is a 3-game losing streak. But one issue this year is a lack of an offensive identity. They seem to have forgotten how to use tight end Dallas Goedert, A.J. Brown was getting maybe too many targets at one point this year, and the running game was not as consistent as it was last year with Miles Sanders leading the backfield.
Jalen Hurts has also had some health issues that he’s played through, including a flu-like game against the Seahawks. But if there is something the Eagles can do to get on track at home as a 2-touchdown favorite, they can pound the football with D’Andre Swift.
Not So Long Ago
Swift had those monster games early in the season with 175 yards against the Vikings and 130 yards in Tampa. But then they got away from that, and he hasn’t surpassed 80 yards in any game since. But he did rush for 80 yards against Buffalo, and he quietly had 74 yards in Seattle on Monday night before the team collapsed in the 4th quarter.
The Eagles need to get the ground game going against a New York defense that is 29th in rushing yards and 30th in yards per carry. Almost everyone runs well on the Giants with 11-of-14 opponents topping 120 yards on the ground.
The Pick
If the Eagles want an easy way to take the pressure off Hurts, they come out strong and run the ball down the Giants’ throat. Swift should be a big part of that as the lead back and over 64.5 yards is well within his wheelhouse.
NFL Pick: D’Andre Swift Rushing Yards Over 64.5 (-114) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Monday, December 25, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Deebo Samuel – Total Receiving Yards
The 49ers have an embarrassment of riches with their skill players, but Deebo Samuel may be the most unique of them all. He can run the ball out of the backfield like a running back, and he is harder to tackle than most backs ever were. He has 5 rushing touchdowns this season.
But Samuel is still at his best as a receiver, especially when he can get the ball in space and show his strength for his incredible YAC ability. He demonstrated this perfectly in the big win in Philadelphia when he had 116 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
He had 149 receiving yards a week later against Seattle. Samuel has only gone over 58.5 receiving yards in 6-of-12 games played this year, but it feels like the team picks their spots with him as a dominant receiver. Some weeks it is a dominant George Kittle game like the Cowboys’ win, and some weeks it is a huge Chrisitan McCaffrey game like his performances against the Cardinals with multiple touchdowns. Let’s not forget the precise route running of Brandon Aiyuk either.
The Pick
But in a physical game with the Ravens, this needs to be a Deebo game. Get him the ball in the slot and watch him turn a 5-yard gain into 40. The Ravens are not immune to giving up numbers like this. They have already allowed 13 receivers to hit 59 yards this year, including 9 games of 80-plus yards.
We’ll take our chances with Samuel’s YAC dominating the game instead of a big game from Aiyuk (tougher routes to complete) or Kittle (might need to block pass rush more). Ride the hot hand in San Francisco.
NFL Pick: Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Over 58.5 (-115) at BetRivers
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