We’ve got one more day to get our college football bets in. Thanks to the OddsTrader computers, we found some value on the slate for Saturday’s college football action.
Picks Summary
- Arizona State (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Western Michigan +24 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Northwestern +2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 10:30 PM EDT at Mountain America Stadium
The AI Model suggests that the Arizona State Sun Devils will earn an eight-point game against the Oklahoma State Sun Devils at home by scoring 28-20. However, Arizona State is a three-point underdog. The Sun Devils at +135 is the play here. Oklahoma State and Arizona State are pretty evenly matched. Therefore, taking the underdog at home would be the way to go here.
Oklahoma State escaped Central Arkansas with a 27-13 win. That game was a one-score game heading into the fourth quarter. The Cowboys allowed nearly 400 yards of offense in that game.
On the other hand, Arizona State only beat Southern Utah 24-21. However, they led 21-7 at halftime and limited mistakes to win the game with a freshman quarterback.
Arizona’s Lineup
Jaden Rashada is that freshman quarterback. He’ll have some growing pains. But Arizona State likes what he brings to the table. He added two touchdowns and threw no interceptions in the win. He’ll continue to grow into a superstar with Arizona State as he gets more experience.
I also believe Arizona State’s defense is much better. Again, I can’t fathom Oklahoma State allowing nearly 400 yards of offense to a non-Power Five team.
Arizona State is one of the weakest Power-Five teams in the nation. But if Central Arkansas can add nearly 400 yards, what can Arizona State do?
Take Arizona State on the moneyline, at home.
NCAAF Pick: Arizona State (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Syracuse Orange
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at JMA Wireless Dome
Our AI Model believes that the Western Michigan Broncos will only lose Saturday’s 24-15 game as a 24-point underdog. I don’t recommend taking Western Michigan on the moneyline. But against the spread, the AI Model shows that Western Michigan has value.
In their first game, the Syracuse Orange dominated Colgate, 65-0. That doesn’t tell us much. Garrett Shrader went 18-for-24 for 257 yards and four touchdowns. But he also threw a pick for Syracuse in that first game.
Syracuse threw for 406 yards and seven touchdowns and ran 52 times for 271 yards and another score. On the other hand, the Syracuse defense held Colgate to 106 total yards. But things will be more challenging once Syracuse starts to play FBS teams.
Western Michigan defeated its first opponent, St. Francis PA 35-17. They only allowed 12 first downs but struggled to get off on third downs at a reasonable rate against an FCS opponent.
Still, the Broncos added over 500 yards of offense and only had three penalties. They also rushed for nearly 340 yards on 67 attempts, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
A Good Matchup for the Broncos
We don’t have any info on these teams playing FBS opponents. But 24 points seems like a lot against a Western Michigan team with great talent, especially in the run game.
Let’s use the AI Model and take Western Michigan against the spread at -110 betting odds.
NCAAF Pick: Western Michigan +24 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
UTEP Miners vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Ryan Field
Our AI Model believes that Northwestern will earn a 23-18 win over the UTEP Miners on their home field on Saturday. The Big Ten team is the underdog on their home field. That’s hard to believe. It’s rare to see a Big Ten team as an underdog at home against a non-Power Five team.
Let’s talk about UTEP first. The Miners defeated Incarnate Word 28-14, scoring seven points every quarter. They still allowed over 300 yards on defense and earned 94 yards passing in the entire game.
The Underdog
Northwestern’s run defense was terrific against Rutgers. Why would it be any worse against UTEP?
The Wildcats held Rutgers to 122 yards rushing. Rutgers averaged just 2.8 yards per rush. UTEP schemes up more runs, but Northwestern was still physical around the line of scrimmage defensively.
Meanwhile, Ben Bryant was poor against Rutgers at quarterback for Northwestern. But he’s had experience and multiple games before being with Northwestern, where he was terrific.
The expectation is that Northwestern fans will rally behind this group of players after everything that’s gone on with the program. Northwestern as underdogs is comical.
I’ll back them at +2, although I think they’ll win this game outright. We’ll just play it safe.
NCAAF Pick: Northwestern +2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
