A trio of matchups featuring road favorites are the focus of this week’s best bets on the college football betting card.
Let’s break down these early matchups for Saturday.
Picks Summary
- South Florida +32 at Caesars Sportsbook
- Penn State -14 (-112) at BetRivers
- Kansas State -4.5 at UniBet
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. South Florida Bulls
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium
Following the upset loss to Texas at home last week, Alabama heads out on the road to take on South Florida as big 32-point chalk. Many are expecting the Crimson Tide to take out their frustrations on the hapless Bulls, but the home underdog is instead the right play.
Bulls Cover Last 2 Vs. SEC
It has been 20 years since the Crimson Tide and Bulls met for the one and only time, and Alabama proved to be a rude host with a 40-17 win over South Florida. Alabama’s lone AAC opponent in the last 5 years was a win and cover over Cincinnati in the 2021-22 College Football Playoffs. South Florida fell to Florida each of the last 2 years but covered both losses.
There’s no question that Alabama could run this one up, and nobody would be surprised if third-stringers were still scoring late in the game against South Florida. It really does amount to a scrimmage for the Crimson Tide.
The Pick
That scrimmage atmosphere is precisely how I suspect Nick Saban treats it as he searches for the right mix in front of conference play. Take the points for this ATS pick, because a backdoor cover is still a cover.
NCAAF Pick: South Florida +32 at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
A Big Ten battle helps us kick off the third week of the college football season, and the Penn State Nittany Lions look to swell their cover streak to 10 as sizeable favorites on the road against the Illinois Fighting Illini.
‘Over’ Cashes 3 of Last 4 in Champaign
Penn State is selling at -14 at many of the top betting sites, a few of them adding that hook to the 2-TD line. Similarly, Saturday’s scoreboard target is running 48-48.5, depending on your book of choice.
This is a rivalry that has been dominated by the Nittany Lions to the tune of 20 wins in 26 meetings. Illinois, however, won the most recent clash in 2021 when the schools were knotted 10-10 at the end of regulation before going 9 overtimes in a 20-18 final.
The last meeting in Champaign was all Penn State, a 63-24 decision that the Nittany Lions went ‘over’ the 61-point total by themselves. Underdogs have covered 6 of the last 9 matchups.
Allar & Nittany Lions Fly Past Illini
Yes, Penn State is taking a big step up in competition after beginning the season with home dates against West Virginia and Delaware. Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions will face a stronger defense in Illinois, but they will adjust and prevail.
You have to go back to the middle of October a year ago to find the last time Penn State didn’t cash tickets for college football bettors. The string of winners is now at 9, and on Saturday in Champaign, it increases to 10.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State -14 (-112) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field
Kansas State and Missouri played in five different conferences together, dating to the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association in the early 1900s. But their 99th matchup comes in a Big 12-SEC showdown where one of the old rivals will see an unbeaten start to 2023 end.
K-State Covers 4 of Last 5 Meetings
A quick check of the college football odds board reveals Kansas State is favored by 4.5 to 5 over Missouri. Scoreboard bettors are faced with a decision on a 49-point total.
Last year’s matchup in Manhattan was the first time the Wildcats and Tigers met since Missouri left the Big 12 for the SEC, and after spotting Missouri a 3-0 lead, Kansas State scored the next 20 on its way to a 40-12 triumph. The Wildcats were giving up 7 and covered for the fourth time in 5 meetings, while the ‘under’ also cashed for the fourth time in that span.
Tigers Challenged on Offense
Kansas State and Missouri each began the season against a couple of lesser foes, to put it nicely. The Wildcats throttled Southeast Missouri in the opener and followed that up with a 42-13 whipping of Troy. Kansas State was giving up 14.5 to the Trojans.
Missouri scored wins against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee, but the Tigers failed to cover spreads of 27 and 21, respectively. Against the Blue Raiders last week, the Tigers could only muster a little more than 300 yards of offense against the CUSA opponent.
The Pick
Kansas State is still not percolating at 100% due to mixing and matching on the offensive trenches due to the injury to tackle Christian Duffie. That won’t stop the Wildcats from a double-digit win in Missouri, however.
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State -4.5 at UniBet
